But first: Y’all had some thoughts about yesterday’s poll on potential Ford successors.

After a flurry of write-ins (including one “Ford forever!”) I’m splitting the poll into two parts to give a few more names their shot. Yes, yes, the Premier insists he’s not going anywhere. And yes, he says he’d still win a “supermajority” after eight-plus years in office, even as some polls suggest the bloom is wearing off.

Still, Queen’s Park loves a succession parlour game. So here’s round two of our anonymous, very unscientific, just-for-fun poll: Who should carry the torch?

Ford himself has kept his not-so-stellar polling numbers in the headlines, getting testy with reporter…

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Premier DOUG FORD got feisty at the podium, ripping into reporters, protesters, pollsters — anyone pointing out his popularity is in the dumps — and insists he’s not going anywhere even as the rumour mill starts churning out potential successors. Highlights:

“All you’ve done is attack me since I’ve been up here,” Ford said defensively when asked about getting booed by OPSEU protesters on his own turf at Ford Fest, drowning out much of his speech and causing him to be whisked away immediately after, rather than shake hands and pose for selfies among the crowd — something the Premier personally loves to do. The union also showed up at yesterday’s announcement in Toronto.

Ford didn’t specifically address the now-infamous edited photo that his office claims was meant to lessen an orange hue, and which also wound up turning purple-clad protesters Tory blue. He did accuse the union of bringing in protesters by the busload and using “very vulgar language…the F-word,…

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First in Observer — Open disclosure season continues! Today I’ve got a peek at the annual Liberal returns, which cover income and expenses for 2025. Here’s who got the biggest slices of the pie:

• Data Sciences, the keeper of the party’s voter-contact software and membership database, Liberalist: $600,198 for research and polling, plus another $236,095 filed under “other programs expense”

• Bellwether Technologies (founded by Mainstreet’s QUITO MAGGI): $156,196 for research and polling

• The Sheraton Centre, the venue for last September’s convention at which BONNIE CROMBIE ultimately resigned following a 57-per-cent leadership review: $538,178

• DAVID INNES, a former candidate and IT lead for the Grits: $98,535 to cover professional fees, plus another $50,398 under “other programs”

• StackAdapt: $112,914 for advertising

• Poliscience, sister company to Grit pollster DON GUY’s Pollara: $40,228 for research and polling

• KATHRYN McGARRY, party president: $20,809 for “meetings …

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Ford Fest has always drawn protesters — but Friday’s community barbecue in Scarborough was a totally different vibe.

There was a heavy OPP and Toronto Police presence (on horseback, ATVs and wielding big guns), OPSEU members in purple turning their backs during Premier DOUG FORD’s speech, and enough boos to drown out the cheers. Things got pretty intense among the PC supporters in the crowd, too.

That’s not nothing. Ford can get jeered at a Raptors parade, even at a FIFA event — but Ford Fest is his turf. The Ford family’s annual free-hot-dog event is a flex in retail politics, and it’s the one room he should be able to control.

This year’s doubled as a momentum driver ahead of a summer byelection in Scarborough Southwest. But as Ford’s popularity spirals in the polls (although, not according to his own pollster), organized labour brings the heat, and Oppo critics keeping the private jet fiasco alive, the optics of getting booed are especially rough — especially f…

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PREMIER’S POLLING WOES AREN’T GOING AWAY

Another day, another bad-news poll for DOUG FORD.

One week after Angus Reid pegged the Premier’s approval at a measly 21 per cent and ranked Ford dead last among the country’s first ministers, another survey suggests things aren’t getting any better for him.

Before we dig into the latest from Liaison Strategies, an update on Ford’s beef with the non-profit pollster that he shrugged off as “fake” and skewed toward critics: Angus Reid has sent the Premier a legal letter, saying they “stand by its work” and “long record of independent, non-partisan public opinion research.”

“We do not intend to litigate this issue in the media, but we do believe the public record should be corrected.”

Today’s numbers probably won’t do much to cool Ford’s sore spot.

Upshot from Liaison: The (permanent-leaderless) Liberals have overtaken the PCs, with 38 per cent of decided and leaning voters saying they would pick …

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Cheat sheet: The Speaker has sided with Oppo critics when it comes to summertime meetings of the committee that vets government appointments, the Premier’s new(ish) chief of staff is hosting his first chiefs-wide huddle, and the PCs confirmed my scoop about a star contender for the York-Simcoe byelection. Meanwhile, BONNIE CROMBIE still isn’t saying much about her expected bid for Mississauga Mayor — but her rivals aren’t holding back. A protester is shaken up after getting bumped by a junior PC minister’s vehicle. And the NDP wants the Integrity Commish to look into an ex-Ford staffer’s too-close-for-comfort move to a mining giant. Let’s get to it.

First in Observer — NO REST FOR THE COMMITTEE — The “friends and donors” committee lives to grill another day.

Speaker DONNA SKELLY has settled the summertime turf war at the Standing Committee on Government Agencies — and it’s a win for Oppo MPPs trying to keep Ford government appointees in the hot seat.

To wit: The PCs tried to block the committee from meeting over the summer. The Speaker took a hard pass. Buckle up: this one’s for the procedural wonks.

I got my hands on Skelly’s ruling, which landed after government MPPs appealed Liberal committee chair MARY-MARGARET McMAHON’s decision allowing SCGA to sit over the break.

How it started: Liberal STEPHANIE SMYTH — who has taken to calling SCGA DOUG FORD’s “friends and donors” committee — had teamed up with NDPer WAYNE GATES on the three-member subcommittee to set the summer schedule. Since the subcommittee only needs two of three members to agree, the PCs were outnumbered.

The counterpunch: PC LAURA SMITH moved to rule the subcommittee’s decision out of order, with the government side arguing this particular committee does not typically meet during legislative recesses. Opposition critics accused the PCs of trying to dodge uncomfortable questions about who is getting appointed to provincial agencies, boards and commissions — and how.

McMahon rejected the PC challenge, pointing to a lack of precedence. PC WILL BOUMA promptly appealed to the Speaker, who has the final word.

Skelly sided with McMahon. It’s pretty simple: Subcommittees always set the calendar, and there’s no history of that ever being overruled by the broader committee.

“As they are created by the House, committees have no power to amend or suspend the application of orders of reference or Standing Orders,” the rulebook for procedure and decorum, Skelly wrote. “I find that the Chair of the Standing Committee on Government Agencies was correct in her ruling that the motion moved by the Member for Thornhill [Smith] was out of order and I confirm that decision.”

That said, Skelly left the door open to a detente, noting the subcommittee can rejig the calendar. “Perhaps there is a schedule that would suit the members of the Committee better, and I encourage them to work together to find a solution that will be satisfactory to everyone,” she wrote.

Smyth is claiming the W. “This is a win for the people of Ontario. More transparency surrounding the people who are being appointed to key government agencies, committees, and boards. Given that the government has continuously extended their breaks, it’s important that committees such as these regularly meet to discuss business and hold the government to account where we can,” she texted.

Now what? SCGA is set to deal with the Speaker’s decision when it meets this morning. Also on the docket: ROB FRANCIS, a member of the Ontario Honours Advisory Council, will be front and centre.

Why it matters: SCGA can’t veto appointments either way, that’s up to the Premier and Cabinet. But it is one of the few places where MPPs can publicly grill would-be appointees about how they got their gigs. Earlier this month, they exposed a pair of appointees who had donated thousands to the PCs and applied for their positions after being encouraged to do so by ministers.

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We called it! — LAHEY’S IN — It’s official: SUSAN LAHEY will fly the PC banner in the hopes of keeping York-Simcoe blue.

The PCs announced the candidate appointment yesterday, confirming my scoop from earlier this week. Lahey is a councillor in East Gwillimbury, a small business owner, and president of the local riding association.

That gives her an edge when it comes to organization and name recognition. She’s also got the blessing of former longtime MPP and Cabinet minister CAROLINE MULRONEY, whose resignation triggered the byelection.

And while Lahey still hasn’t called me back, she’s been getting loads of praise from chatty insiders who say she checks all their boxes.

“People like her and she knows the riding. She’ll be hard to beat. The question is by how much (can she win)?” one Tory organizer said earlier this week.

The PCs have had a rough go in the polls and headlines, and while they’re expected to hold on to the seat, the victory margin will be a solid gauge of just how much political capital the ruling party has left. “Will anyone be paying attention? You know how it is with summer byelections,” they added.

Ford has until December 2 to call the byelection, but it could be held in tandem with Scarborough Southwest, which must be called by August 5. The PCs are holding an open nomination July 9 to pick their contender in that long-shot riding (scooped here).

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CHIEFS ASSEMBLE — TRAVIS KANN is rallying the troops.

Premier DOUG FORD’s chief of staff is hosting a meeting of ministerial chiefs this afternoon — a notable first for Kann since he took up the mantle from PATRICK SACKVILLE, who is now at Sussex Strategy (you read it here first!).

As far as one chief of staff can remember, it’s the first in-person huddle in a year, maybe longer. “It’s exciting,” they said.

After months of major turnover in the PO and across government — which regular readers will know all about — Kann seems to be settling the waters and is getting rave reviews from the folks he’s been steering since March.

“Travis has been very available by phone and text to chiefs and ministers. His presence is felt and seen. Quick to provide a steer,” said one senior staffer.

The Premier’s new command centre has had somewhat of a rough hazing after a bumpy stretch this spring. It includes IVANA YELICH, who has returned as principal secretary (scooped here) — a move that insiders said would bring more discipline to Ford’s bull-in-a-china-shop approach.

HAPPENING TODAY

DOUG FORD’S THURSDAY — The Premier is expected to make an (unconfirmed) cameo at the funeral for fallen OPP officer TARUN BALI in Mississauga.

9:30 a.m.: NDPer KRISTYN WONG-TAM is in the Media Studio to pump up private member’s Bill 135, the Swahili Heritage Month Act.

10 a.m.: The Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act Alliance and the Ontario Autism Coalition are hosting a virtual town hall to hear what parents of students with disabilities need in the classroom.

12 p.m.: Information and Privacy Commissioner PATRICIA KOSSEIM will deliver a keynote to Transparency International Canada’s virtual AGM.

6 p.m.: Liberal leadership contenders NAVDEEP BAINS, ERIC LOMBARDI, LEE FAIRCLOUGH and ROB CERJANEC at a Filipino-Canadian Community Townhall at Soulpepper Theatre. Invite.

FUNDRAISING WATCH — 5:30 p.m.: Back-to-back fundraisers from the PCs, featuring STEPHEN LECCE and MICHELLE COOPER at a $500-event in Toronto and a World Cup watch party with STEPHEN CRAWFORD in Oakville for $500 a pop.

CLIPPINGS

— BONNIE BUZZ: Would-be mayoral contender BONNIE CROMBIE is still keeping tight-lipped on her expected bid in Mississauga (you read it here first!), telling CP24 she’s “considering options” and will have more to say in the “coming weeks.” But with opponents already ripping into her comeback, she might be getting cold feet.

“She quit to do something else, and she’s currently treating the city like a backup plan and a consolation prize,” ALVIN TEDJO told JOHN MOORE on Newstalk 1010.

“Mississauga is looking ahead, and so am I,” said DIPIKA DAMERLA. Read on.

— HOLLAND HIT: “Coming into physical contact with [Associate Forestry Minister] KEVIN HOLLAND’s car came as a bit of a surprise, DAN DUBRAY said Tuesday. Video recorded at the scene shows a vehicle driven by Holland, MPP for Thunder Bay-Atikokan, move forward slowly and hit Dubray’s right leg as the union member was protesting on Hewitson Street.” Full story.

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CASH, COMEBACKS, CONTESTS AND CLAP BACKS

In today’s scoop-filled edition: DOUG FORD is popping off on pollsters, Liberal leadership hopefuls are flexing their fundraising muscle (or not), and the PCs are throwing open their doors in Scarborough Southwest. But first: BONNIE CROMBIE is plotting an imminent comeback in Mississauga.

A POLITICAL HOMECOMING — In what might be the worst-kept secret in provincial politics since last year’s snap election, BONNIE CROMBIE appears poised to return to her old stomping grounds in Mississauga.

The former provincial Grit captain has for months kept coy about her potential bid to jump into the mayoral race, and Crombie’s camp is still staying quiet (at least when it comes to this reporter’s questions).

But chatter in the 905 — including from folks who reportedly heard it from Crombie herself — suggests she could officially launch her bid on or around June 22.

This time, it’s a whole new ball game.

Crombie left the mayor’s desk to take a run at provincial politics, only to wind up without a seat at Queen’s Park and without the Liberal leadership. So while she was a popular mayor, a return to City Hall also risks looking, to some voters, more like a consolation prize than a victory lap.

And it’s hardly a coronation. She’d be entering an already crowded field that includes incumbent CAROLYN PARRISH (with whom there’s no love lost), Councillor ALVIN TEDJO and Councillor and ex-MPP DIPIKA DAMERLA. Slim pickings: Many local campaign operatives have already picked teams and could be harder to recruit.

She may also be facing a familiar foe in Premier DOUG FORD, who has said he’d send “an army” to block her from reclaiming her old City Hall seat, while praising Parrish. Ford’s blessing has been a kiss of death in past civic races (ahem, MARK SAUNDERS), but Crombie is no stranger to the political damage the Ford Nation war room can do.

So don’t call it a comeback — yet.

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OPEN BOOKS — Meanwhile, the money race is on in Liberal leadership land, and so far, it’s a three-person game.

As of yesterday, only three of the five contenders had posted their cash hauls on Elections Ontario’s real-time disclosure dashboard. Here’s how they stack up:

• NAVDEEP BAINS, a frontrunner who has boasted his money-making prowess by already raising the $150K entry fee, and whom the PCs have been quick to saddle with TRUDEAU-era baggage, has brought in $297,677 from 182 donors giving an average of $1,644

• LEE FAIRCLOUGH, the MPP who poached Etobicoke-Lakeshore from the Tories last year, has brought in $126,660 from 77 supporters and an average donation of $1,667

• DYLAN MARANDO, former backroom operative in the PMO and PO, clocked in at $97,864 from 108 folks giving an average $915.

Bains is blowing his opponents out of the water, Fairclough boasts the biggest cheques on average, but Marando has a broader base than Fairclough. It’s early days, so ROB CERJANEC and ERIC LOMBARDI aren’t on the scoreboard yet, but optics-wise, it isn’t exactly a strong look.

Why it matters: It’s not all about the money in a leadership race, but it does provide a solid gauge of early organization, donor reach and campaign momentum. And that goes a long way when you’re gunning to steer a third-place party that’s been trying to claw its way out of the political wilderness since 2018.

Caveat: These are real-time disclosures, which usually come with a two-week reporting lag, so the tallies could shift once Elections Ontario does its audit.

It’s open disclosure season! I’ve been parsing year-end party financial returns — catch up on the biggest payouts for the PCs, NDP and Greens, and stay tuned for the Liberal receipts. Wondering what your coworker or competition got paid? Send me their names: sabrina@qpobserver.ca.

OPEN RACE — After GARY CRAWFORD bowed out of the running, the PCs will hold an open nomination contest to pick their candidate for the soon-to-be-called byelection in SSW.

I suggested as much yesterday, and the party’s nominations committee made the decision to hold a contest later that morning. The race will take place on July 9, with speeches at 4 p.m., voting ‘til 8:30 p.m., and results around 10 p.m.

There are four contestants on the board: ASM TARUN, a family physician who ran for the federal Tories in the 2025 election…MURSHED NIZAM, an accountant…AYESHA SARDAR, a community organizer…GAZI SIJAN, an HR professional.

It’s somewhat unusual for the Ford PCs to hold an open nomination contest for a byelection, but it’s not totally rare — there was a local race to pick the candidate for the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex race back in 2024.

As one insider has noted, running a drama-free nomination would be an opportunity to show the Liberals “how it’s done” after their own messy contest.

Scarborough Southwest is a long-shot for the PCs — they haven’t held the riding in more than two decades, and the incumbent NDP and Grit challengers already have a leg-up on the ground game as their respective candidates FATIMA SHABAN and AHSANUL HAFIZ have been door-knocking for weeks.

Since byelections are called on Wednesdays and held on Thursdays — and assuming the PCs would wait to lock in their candidate before dropping the writ — E-Day could be called July 15 with a vote set for August 13. It must be held by September 3.

One byelection the PCs are expected to hold on to is York-Simcoe, and party insiders are talking up SUSAN LAHEY, the local riding association president (who actually won a party award for it) and part-time councillor in East Gwillimbury. Why she’s got an edge.

HAPPENING TODAY

11 a.m.: Municipal Affairs and Housing Parliamentary Assistant MATT RAE is in St. Catharines alongside Mayor MAT SISCOE and Welland Mayor FRANK CAMPION.

11:15 a.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES and local rep CATHERINE McKENNEY are holding a presser in Ottawa, to talk about extreme heat stress in schools and apartments. The NDP have a private member’s bill on the Order Paper to tackle the issue. Also on hand: Ottawa ACORN Vanier chapter chair BADER ABU-ZAHRA and Ottawa U Student Union advocacy commissioner NORAH BELLO.

CLIPPINGS

— FORD FUMES: “Premier DOUG FORD is lashing out at a non-profit pollster after the organization recorded a steady drop in his support, culminating in his worst level of support since taking office in 2018.”

Ford called the Angus Reid Institute’s poll “fake” and suggested they surveyed “the NDP and Liberal caucus.”

“Our polling, along with other polling show — since you brought it up, I don’t like boasting and bragging — if an election was held today, we’re at 41 per cent, we’d win a massive majority once again.”

The pollster, which pegged his approval at a paltry 21 per cent and dead-last among all the Premiers, clapped back: “While it is not surprising for a premier with a comparatively low approval rating to express unhappiness with the data, we note that Premier Ford has at times been among the most approved-of provincial leaders in the country based on data from this same quarterly survey. We note he did not express a problem with Angus Reid polling then.” More from Global News.

Naturally, Ford weighed in on a slew of other topics at his Thunder Bay presser…

On NDPer SOL MAMAKWA’s call to close the “death trap” that is the Thunder Bay jail, after his nephew died while incarcerated: “We just want to make sure we get some consultation. We built a nice jail, a very nice jail up here. Matter of fact, it looks like the Four Seasons Hotel. I’m not sold on that. When people commit crimes, they shouldn’t be in this fancy, dancy jail, but we’re gonna invest in it. Let’s see what we do with the old jail. Do we renovate it? Because we need more cells.” He then riffed on “weak-kneed” judges and the feds over bail reform.

On the Ring of Fire: Ford told reporters they “got me on a roll…The province has put up $1 billion to build roads and help with the airports. Guess how much the feds have put up? Zip, zero, zilch.”

On the safety of Highways 11 and 17, something local NDP critics say isn’t happening fast enough: “We’ve had a lot of accidents, unfortunately, a lot of deaths on those highways…Safety is a priority,” Ford said, noting MTO and the OPP have pulled 18 trucks off the road and laid 76 charges, while the government has earmarked $600M to expand and repair infrastructure in the North.

On striking OPSEU-repped social service workers, who were also rallying in Thunder Bay: “It’s not the province, I keep stressing this. This is the service providers.” He added “we give…a lot of money” and “strikes never work, everyone gets hurt.”

The actual announcement: $2.4 million to upgrade the Port of Thunder Bay and the Peninsula Harbour Port Authority in Marathon…$958,500 for the Port Arthur Health Centre.

— PLAN B: “Outgoing Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH is considering running for Toronto city council, and has discussed the possibility with Mayor OLIVIA CHOW.” Scoop from the Star.

Speaking of the Mayor…

— SHOW US THE MONEY: “Chow is accusing the Toronto Port Authority of hiding initial plans for a $5-billion Billy Bishop airport expansion from the city, even though the authority says it has shared “preliminary” work with provincial and federal officials.” The Star’s also got that one.

— TENTS ON TRIAL: “The Region of Waterloo and the Ontario government will appeal a court decision that ruled in May the region is not allowed to remove people living at the encampment at 100 Victoria St. N. in downtown Kitchener because it violated resident’s charter rights.” CBC has the story.

— STRETCH GOAL? “New housing in Ontario stuttered slightly last month after a relatively strong start to the year, with the province still far away from its one-time goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031.” More from Global News.

— SHOOTERS-FOR-HIRE: “Police say dozens of shootings across the GTA are being carried out in “gun-for-hire” schemes where young people are paid by “bad actors” to shoot at various targets, including synagogues, Jewish schools, and the U.S. Consulate.”

Liberal MPP STEPHANIE SMYTH (St. Paul’s) released a statement calling the revelations “unprecedented and terrifying” and blamed all three levels of government. “The reality is that nothing Mayor CHOW, Premier FORD, or Prime Minister CARNEY have done so far has been enough to stop this escalating campaign of hatred and violence.” More from CTV News.

— CHARGED UP: “Environmental groups are cheering an Ontario government announcement that three battery storage projects will add enough capacity to the electricity system to power 640,000 homes.” The Canadian Press has the story.

— HEALTH atHOME LATEST: “Senior staff in the Minister of Health’s office were notified about a cyber attack at a government home care agency more than a month before the public was told, despite publicly scolding the organization for not moving faster.” Global reports.

— RED LIGHT DISTRICT: “A new digital parking system in Elora has been abruptly taken offline after a bizarre cyber glitch began routing drivers to a pornography website instead of a payment portal.” Via CTV.

— A DIFFERENT KIND OF BUZZ: CBC is the latest to cover the Legislature’s rooftop bees, which I first told you about here. Word on the street is Speaker DONNA SKELLY is taking suggestions on what to name the honey that would eventually be sold in the gift shop. House Honey? Queen’s Bees? Fili-bee-ster? Comb-ittee Business? Puns intended and relished.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

Tourism Minister STAN CHO has poached an MPP liaison and board appointments adviser from Associate Forestry Minister KEVIN HOLLAND: LEILA VAFA, who was previously Holland’s policy and stakeholder relations adviser.

ASYA PRYCE is moving on from Cabinet Office and headed to the Ministry of Natural Resources as a senior comms adviser.

BRIAN HAO is exiting government after policy-and-stakeholder stints in the offices of the Ministers of Infrastructure and Long-Term Care. Hao has signed on to Impact Public Affairs as manager of public affairs.

It’s LinkedIn official: PATRICK SCHERTZER, who I first told you was leaving his post as chief of staff to Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY, has returned to his roots at Legal Aid Ontario as chief risk officer.

LOBBY LIST

Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:

• Abinaya Chandrabalan, Rubicon Strategy: Canada Workday ULC

• Jessica Georgakopoulos, Sussex Strategy Group: Campfire Circle

• Trisha Rinneard, Wellington Advocacy: Toronto Swim Club, United Association Local 787 - HVACR Workers of Ontario

• Matthew Gagne, Vantage Canada LP: Ronsco Inc.

• Tony Valeri, Ridge Strategy Group: Legnano Teknoelectric Company North America Inc.

🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former Premier ERNIE EVES.

🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Pulled pork mac and cheese with coleslaw.

⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 49 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Scarborough Southwest…132 days until the House reconvenes…157 days until the Liberals name a new leader…168 days to call a byelection in York-Simcoe.

Want MPP eyes on your proposal? Share your message with our influential audience in the most-read newsletter at Queen’s Park. Find out about advertising opportunities by emailing DANIEL@QPOBSERVER.CA.

Got a tip? Document to leak? Staffer on the move? Birthday or anniversary coming up? I want to hear from you, on or off record. Reach out to sabrina@qpobserver.ca or reply to this email.

Cover: Bonnie Crombie attends the federal Liberal convention in Montreal. Via X.

BYELECTION BUZZ

Now that the countdown to a pair of byelections is on, all eyes are on the PCs as they scramble to find a candidate in Scarborough Southwest and start eyeing a flag-bearer strong enough to keep York-Simcoe blue. The big question is who?

Scarborough Southwest must be called by August 5, and while there’s more runway for York-Simcoe (December 2), one theory is that both races could be held in tandem this summer.

And with heavyweight contender GARY CRAWFORD out of the running in SSW, some party operatives tell me there could be an open nomination contest to pick the candidate in the long-shot riding.

“It would be fair and open,” said one PC insider, acknowledging that if nothing else, it would be an opportunity to show the Liberals “how it’s done” after their own messy nomination contest.

Officially: The riding association president isn’t talking. Unofficially: would-be contestants are already hitting the pavement and kn…

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INSIDE THE GREENS’ CASH HAUL

Last week, I told you what was in the year-end books for the PCs and the NDP, and today, it’s all about the Greens, who are fresh off a weekend convention in Hamilton, where there are whispers of a byelection sooner than later.

Don’t forget: These receipts wouldn’t cover expenses and income during the February campaign period. Here’s who got the biggest payouts on the annual returns…

• $370,463 overall for advertising, $52,237 of which went to Meta, which owns Facebook, and $14,520 of which went to EOK Consults

• $201,572 to Keys 360 Marketing, for telemarketing

• JMA Consulting raked in $9,322

• Oraclepoll Research got $9,605 for polling

The Greens ended the year with $780,344 in the bank, after expenses. Before those deductions, they clocked in at more than $2.3 million in income, including nearly $1.5 million in donations and $640K from the taxpayer-funded per-vote subsidy.

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POLL WATCH — Premier DOUG FORD has hit an all-time low.

That’s the upshot from the latest survey from the Angus Reid Institute, which puts his approval rating at 21 per cent — his worst level since first taking office and a brutal ten-point slide since March. Countrywide, he’s at the bottom of the Premiers’ pack.

The obvious drag on his numbers is the jet fiasco, but the not-so-obvious issue runs much deeper: Ford’s moves have chipped away at the man-of-the-people brand he’s created for himself, and coupled with FOI carve-outs and the cellphone records fight, it’s wearing his government’s political capital thin.

It’s been “a quarter marked by both economic pressure and self-inflicted wounds.”

“His government has continued to frame its agenda around protecting Ontario from U.S. tariffs, but that message has competed with a budget that is projecting years of deficits, as well as persistent affordability and health-care challenges. Mos…

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First in Observer — RECEIPTS REVEALED — I’ve been parsing annual party returns at Elections Ontario, and today, we’re digging into the NDP’s books.

Remember that these 2025 returns won’t include campaign spending and expenses for the snap election in February. — you can check those out here.

While the PC returns showed the usual suspects getting the biggest payouts, what’s notable in the NDP’s is how much they coughed up for the September convention at which Leader MARIT STILES got a weak 68 per cent for the post-election leadership review.

The total fundraising income from the Niagara event clocked in at $20,005 (with $13,220 filed under contributions and another $3,205 from the silent auction).

The spend blew that out of the water, including:

• $207,933 to the Niagara Falls Convention Centre

• $302,122 to Project X Productions, for staging

• $105,980 to Stronco Designs for signage

• $93,589 to block out rooms at the Hilton, plus another $4…

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MR. FORD GOES TO WASHINGTON — CAREFULLY

Premier DOUG FORD’s Washington swing was supposed to include a reception with U.S. Chamber of Commerce head ROSS PEROT JR. Instead, it was scrapped — reportedly over concerns it could tick off the White House at exactly the wrong moment.

Officially, the event was called off due to “scheduling conflicts.” Unofficially, it’s because Ford has rubbed President DONALD TRUMP the wrong way.

Juicy tidbits from the Globe and Mail: “A source familiar with the reception said the White House expressed concerns about Mr. Ford to Mr. Perot Jr. before the event was cancelled. Another source said the White House had complained to business figures in Washington about the Ontario Premier’s scheduled appearance. Mr. Ford is viewed as a major problem by the Trump administration, the person said.”

Ford’s office has kept his official itinerary pretty high-level, posting some meetings on social media. And while PO di…

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EXTREME MAKEOVER, LEG EDITION

First in Observer — Slowly but surely, things are chugging along when it comes to the Legislature’s $1-billion renovation.

The massive project, which would see MPPs and legislative staff at the Pink Palace moved to a temporary location to deal with issues like lead-tainted tap water, asbestos, exposed wiring and a wonky heating system (if you know, you know), was delayed until at least 2027.

Now, things seem to be moving ahead — but the details remain hazy. The latest from the Board of Internal Economy, which is overseeing the revamp along with the Ministry of Infrastructure (having taken over from the now-dissolved Leg Affairs Ministry), is that a Building Condition Assessment is underway.

Back in April, the BOIE, which includes PCs, NDPers and Liberals as recognized parties, green-lit a $174,000-study to assess the state of the building, which was scheduled to take 11 weeks to complete.

It will look at…

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FOLLOW THE MONEY

First in Observer — It’s that time of year again, when political parties hand in their annual spending receipts. I trekked down to Elections Ontario headquarters in North York to crack open the binders for 2025, and today, we’re digging into how much and to whom the ruling PCs paid out.

But first, a quick caveat: These annual returns would not include specific campaign spending for the 2025 snap election. You can check those out here.

Here’s who got the biggest slices of the PC pie…

• Creative Currency, headed up by DENNIS MATTHEWS, ex-STEPHEN HARPER ad man, and the architect of the PCs 2022 “Get it Done” slogan, the RONALD REAGAN ad spot and more, got $1,501,485 for advertising, comms and media

• Campaign Research and Campaign Support, PC pollster NICK KOUVALIS’s firms, got a combined $819,017 for research, polling and outreach

• Prime Contact, the same shop that does voter contact and IDs for the …

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STAY TUNED, SHUFFLE-MONGERS

Don’t hold your breath for a cabinet shuffle today.

Premier DOUG FORD didn’t exactly tamp down the chatter that he could shake up his front bench as early as today. Asked by reporters whether he’s thinking about a big shuffle or a little one, Ford offered only: “Stay tuned.”

And sure, a June switcheroo would make sense: a reset after a rough, “gravy plane”-induced run; an extra-long recess for ministers to get up to speed on new portfolios; and a chance to debut the new crew on stage at Ford Fest later this month.

But for now, it appears Ford is biding his time.

As my sources have previously suggested here,, Ford might be forced to shuffle if, say, he loses more front-benchers, or if the Integrity Commissioner drops a bad-news report on the Skills Development Fund.

But with Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY sticking around, Ford has been given the gift of time.

Bethlenfalvy is officially taking on Treasury Board from outgoing Pr…

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NIAGARA FALLS OUT

It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for Premier DOUG FORD, who’s trading the heat of Question Period for the headaches in his own house.

After adjourning the Legislature early for a 21-week break, Ford and his PC crew are headed to Niagara for a caucus retreat on Friday — and while he’s downplaying tension over pensions and the jet, the blowup with sacked caucus chair WILL BOUMA makes for a rather awkward backdrop.

Ford insists he’s still got a “tight group” and has said that caucus is like a family: there are disagreements behind closed doors, but everyone toes the party line in public — even if some of his MPPs are feeling silenced.

Salt in the wounds: Ford has lost a heavyweight contender in GARY CRAWFORD, who I’ve confirmed is bowing out of the ever-dramatic Scarborough Southwest byelection.

The riding was always going to be a challenge for the ruling PCs, who have failed to win the seat for more than two decades, but Craw…

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SCHOOL’S OUT FOR SUMMER, AND THEN SOME

MPPs closed out the whirlwind spring session with a bang — and it’ll be a hot minute before the House gets back to business.

As I first told you, the Ford government broke for summer on Tuesday afternoon and extended the recess until October 27, so as not to “interfere” with civic elections.

That brings the number of sessional days so far this year to a paltry 30, and — barring some emergency callback, like, say, legislating striking teachers back to work — MPPs are set to sit for a total of 53. While that’s not the absolute lowest tally in recent history, it’s certainly an outlier for a non-election year.

DOUG FORD insisted “no one could question my work ethic” (yes, he used the reporter’s name, yes that means he was ticked off at the question). And sure, MPPs will be in their ridings doing constituency work — the Premier in particular is headed to the U.S. no less than three times for a Captain Canada s…

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SUMMERTIME MADNESS

If you’re getting last-day-of-school vibes at Queen’s Park today, that’s because it most likely is. And it could be another endless summer.

While we won’t know for sure until Government House Leader STEVE CLARK moves a motion to adjourn two days earlier than scheduled — something he’s widely expected to do — government MPPs have been told to prepare for an early recess. Ditto Legislative staff around the Precinct.

Hint, hint: There’s not much left on the Order Paper, and this morning MPPs will chug through the end-of-session ritual of dealing with private bills. Bill 119, the last government act on the Clerk’s table, is up for a second-reading vote after Question Period. There’s also some PMB and adjournment debates scheduled for later, but some expect the House to recess earlier than the usual 6 p.m.

Rumour has it MPPs may not be back until after the Thanksgiving long weekend in October, a timeline the Ford government has previously …

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BILLS, BYELECTIONS, BARBECUES

It’s the final countdown.

There isn’t much left on the Order Paper when it comes to the government’s agenda, except the omnibus justice Bill 119, which is expected to hit the six-and-a-half-hour mark needed for a second-reading vote tonight or tomorrow.

But there are still some end-of-session rituals to get through before MPPs scatter for summer. That includes private bills, usually dealt with en masse, and a possible chamber visit from the Lieutenant Governor to give Royal Assent to the remaining crop of bills. That includes Bill 9, which enshrines a municipal code of conduct and allows councillors to boot bad-behaving politicians, and Bill 110, the Billy Bishop takeover legislation.

The NDP, meanwhile, has been blitzing the Clerk’s table with PMBs so they’re on the record, and NDP Leader MARIT STILES will want to land her jabs in Question Period while she still can, setting the tone for summer.

DOUG FORD and the PCs are …

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FORD SERVES UP RED MEAT ON PRIMETIME

ROB CERJANEC is putting together a crack campaign team for the Liberal leadership, while the PCs are going hard on the NAVDEEP BAINS narrative. The House is zipping through due process with just a week (or less!) until summer recess. But first: the PCs’ are getting visceral in their latest tough-on-crime ads.

AD WATCH — Looking to change the channel after a run of bad polling and headlines over the private jet fiasco and gutting of FOI laws, the Ford government is out with a fresh set of Protect Ontario ads that boast law-and-order policies — and serve up red meat for DOUG FORD’s base and beyond.

Airing across TV and radio, including during Jays’ games, the 30-second spot features a voiceover of a woman rattling off a bunch of public safety moves — and the government isn’t mincing words with the script.

“Protecting Ontario means playgrounds with no drug injections sites. It means fewer cars being stolen, thanks to more police officers and prosecutors. New jails, so criminals stay behind bars. Public spaces without encampments, and bail reform that protects our neighbourhoods,” the woman says over quick cuts of kids playing on a swing set, a man confidently getting into his SUV, and a uniformed officer walking purposely in a correctional facility.

Of course, the clip doesn’t mention the convicts currently on the lam, or that Ford has mused about using the nuclear option of the notwithstanding clause to override a ruling on an encampment in Kitchener.

But that type of visceral language plays well with a public that has the perception that crime is out of control.

It isn’t clear how much the government coughed up for its latest ad buy — they tend to keep those receipts under wraps — and while the Public Accounts could offer a few hints at which firms are on the payroll, we’ll likely have to wait for the Auditor General’s full breakdown at the end of the year.

The new ad was also timed with the tabling of Solicitor General MICHAEL KERZNER’s omnibus justice Bill 119, which most controversially gives him power to direct police boards so that they align with provincial priorities.

Big picture: For now, expect more of this sort of talk from Ford and crew as they hit the summer barbecue circuit and lean into the shticks that work for them — Captain Canada, law-and-order Premier, even the wolf of Wellesley — while trying to put the heat of Question Period and rough storylines behind them.

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CERJANEC DRAFTS CAMPAIGN CREW, TORIES GO HARD ON NAV NARRATIVE

ROB CERJANEC, the Liberal MPP who poached Ajax from the PCs last year, officially launched his bid for Liberal leader with a slick campaign video and a deep-dive profile in the Star, becoming the fourth candidate in the race and the second sitting MPP. His slogan: “Let’s Build Ontario.”

Who’s who: Cerjanec has enlisted MATHIEU DAGONAS as campaign director. Dagonas is an Ajax native who serves as executive director for the Canadian Centre for Housing Rights, and has plenty of campaign experience under his belt — he was deputy campaign manager and chief financial officer for ex-ministers ERIC HOSKINS and GLEN MURRAY, and was also the Ontario/Toronto regional manager for PM MARK CARNEY’s leadership.

Also: BRIAN KLUNDER, counsel at Temple Scott Associates and ex-national director of memberships and manager of election readiness for the federal Liberal Party, is Cerjanec’s CFO…MPP STEPHANIE BOWMAN and ex-Durham rep GRANVILLE ANDERSON are campaign co-chairs.

Long time coming: I sat down with Cerjanec last summer to talk heckling, hockey and handling Ford — and even back then, he wouldn’t rule out a run for party captain. Read on.

“NO THANKS,” NAV — Meanwhile, more PCs are getting into the coordinated line of attack on perceived Liberal leadership frontrunner NAVDEEP BAINS.

“Nav said yes to every carbon tax hike, yes to every job-killing new regulation, and yes to every woke policy Trudeau ever proposed…TRUDEAU’s yes-man? No thanks,” said SAM OOSTERHOFF…

“The guy who went from regulating giant telecoms to collecting a corporate paycheck from Rogers while it outsourced good Canadian jobs to India now wants to run Ontario. No thanks,” said ZEE HAMID.

Bains seems unfazed for now, flexing his fundraising prowess by announcing he’s already paid the full $150,000-entry fee to the party.

Cerjanec and Bains (whose bid I first told you about) join official leadership candidates LEE FAIRCLOUGH, MPP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and DYLAN MARANDO, former adviser in the PMO and PO (also scooped here).

With the deadline for candidates to sign up fast approaching on July 31, pressure is mounting on NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, who has said his leadership bid is “less likely” given his nomination loss in Scarborough Southwest.

HAPPENING TODAY

9 a.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES is on the picket line in solidarity with striking OPSEU workers at Sistering, a women’s shelter in Toronto.

9:30 a.m.: London NDPers TERENCE KERNAGHAN and TERESA ARMSTRONG will hold a presser at House of Hope, a supportive housing program that’s set to close after the province denied requests for a funding renewal.

11:30 a.m.: Colleges and Universities Minister NOLAN QUINN will address the Empire Club as part of the launch of the Council of Ontario Universities’ AI task force report. The theme: “Talent, Technology and Trust.” RSVP.

12 p.m.: Environment Minister TODD McCARTHY is up in Uxbridge.

1 p.m.: Associate Energy-Intensive Industries Minister SAM OOSTERHOFF is in Thunder Bay. Also on hand: WILL BOUMA, Parliamentary Assistant or Indigenous Affairs, and MICHELLE COOPER, PA at Finance.

FUNDRAISING WATCH — 7:30 a.m.: PCs DOUG DOWNEY and ANTHONY LEARDI are hosting a $500-a-plate breakfast in LaSalle…Saturday at 11:30 a.m.: Ex-Premier Dad DALTON McGUINTY is hosting a money-making event for the Liberals at Niagara’s Ravine Winery. $75 will get you a signed copy of his book, Be a Good One - Words to Live By, a salad starter and a chicken supreme main.

HAPPENING SATURDAY — 10 a.m.: Lieutenant Governor EDITH DUMONT is at Chassagne Farm in Puslinch for annual sheep shearing day.

RECESS RUMBLINGS

The House is out. It’s Friday! MPPs get back at it Monday.

But but but: It may have started as wishful thinking for the burned-out among us — but there are procedural and logistical signs floating around the Leg that suggest they could recess earlier than planned, perhaps on Tuesday instead of Thursday.

THURSDAY’S RUNDOWN:

• Passed: Bill 110, the government’s Billy Bishop takeover act, cleared the PC majority 58 to 41. More on that momentarily.

• Killed: NDPer CATHERINE FIFE’s Lydia’s Law PMB, to enhance how sex assault cases are handled — and it’s not the first time the PCs have shot it down, prompting Oppo cries of “shame!”

New Democrats continue to blitz the Clerk’s table with private members’ bills as summer recess approaches…

• Tabled I: Bill 130, the Adapting to a Hotter Ontario Act, led by NDP PETER TABUNS, to create a worker heat protection standard for employers and a strategic action plan to protect infrastructure from climate change, among other things.

• Tabled II: Bill 131, the Menstrual Health Day Act from NDP ALEXA GILMOUR to proclaim May 28 as such. Gilmour is also pushing the government to require period products in all workplaces.

• Tabled III: Bill 132, NDP SANDY SHAW’s Nancy Rose Act, to create a paediatric hospice palliative care strategy. It’s named for Shaw’s infant sister, who had a rare form of leukemia and died after being rushed to hospital.

CLIPPINGS

— DE-FENCE! DE-FENCE! “DOUG FORD wants Ontario to cash in on the federal government’s massive drive to rearm the Canadian military, unveiling a new guiding “framework” Thursday to build up the province’s defence industries over the next 10 years.” The Premier got into it at the CANSEC military expo in Ottawa. The Star has the details.

— JET-SETTER: “Ontario’s transportation minister says the province plans to soon designate Toronto’s island airport a so-called special economic zone to expand it faster now that it has taken over the land” and passed the corresponding legislation. More from the Canadian Press.

— HS-TEA: “Almost two months since Ontario’s HST rebate window opened, new home sales data for April is showing how the program’s first month is impacting the GTA market. A total of 1,100 new homes were sold in the GTA in April, according to data compiled by Altus Group for the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). That’s nearly triple what it was at the same time last year, when 384 new homes were sold.” CBC breaks it down.

— ER CRUNCH: Health Minister SYLVIA JONES cut the ribbon on a new ambulatory care centre at Toronto’s St. Michael’s Hospital that the province says will serve 70,000 walk-in patients each year. It also includes a dedicated entrance, separate waiting area, private exam rooms, a confidential discharge suite and a centralized caregiver pod. Backgrounder.

— PROTESTING PRIVATIZATION: Meanwhile up the street, thousands of advocates from across the province boarded trains to rally on the South Lawn in protest of the Ford government’s privatization of the health care system. It was put on by the Ontario Health Coalition. The scene.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

Another day, another exit from Public and Business Service Delivery Minister STEPHEN CRAWFORD’s camp: JEROME BENNETT, most recently D-comms, issues and Leg affairs, is leaving his post. Bennett is a longtime staffer who previously did stints in the Premier’s Office, Small Biz, Associate Housing and Environment.

Bennett’s not the first big move. Crawford recently lost his chief of staff JEREMY WITTET (scooped here), and JORDAN ADAIR has since taken up the mantle.

SPOTTED:

Broadcaster BEN MULRONEY goes off on the suggestion of re-naming Queen’s Park to get rid of the colonial vibes…

The beloved giant rubber duck — which the then-in-opposition PCs had called a “$200K-cluster duck” — is returning to Toronto’s waterfront, prompting one cartoonist to suggest it has the much-needed “pizazz” that Ontario’s current opposition leaders lack. NDP Leader MARIT STILES, ahem, quacked back…

Stunning structures across the province awarded by the Ontario Association of Architects.

QUESTION PERIOD

HIGHLIGHTS: “This Premier is throwing taxpayers to the wolves and he’s howling about it” — “How can this Premier be so out of touch with everyday families?” — “Why is this government so obsessed with jets landing on Lake Ontario, that they aren’t building housing in the province?” — “Will the Premier disclose just how much money CARMINE NIGRO’s company got in this air rights scandal?” — “It feels like a favour for a friend…it’s reasonable for people to know how much this favour, or what looks like a favour, costs” — “Are you really going to let this session close without a plan to address the crisis in our hospitals?” — “When will you stop misleading the gracious people of Scarborough and take accountability” for the subway delay? — “How is it that the Premier has $5 billion to land private jets on Toronto’s waterfront, but when it comes to supporting our kids, it’s another cut?” — “When will this Premier realize that his out-of-control spending is doing nothing to improve the dismal state of health care in Ottawa?” — “Why is this government diverting billions of dollars to Billy Bishop while seniors can’t get the care they need at home?” — “After eight long years in government, are they all just tired and feel entitled to luxury?” — “Laws are being ignored and disabled persons living in group homes are being subjected to multiple forms of abuse.”

TRANSCRIPT. CLIP.

LOBBY LIST

Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:

• Brandon Falcone, ONpoint Strategy Group: Primacare Living Solutions, Triple M Metal, Weldtech Training Inc, Alinea Group Holdings, Verdi Alliance, Fieldgate Land Development, Giampalo Investments, White Owl Properties Limited

• Jeffrey Phillips, Dawson Strategic: The Association for the Protection of Fur-Bearing Animals

• Rob Elliott, Johanna Chevalier and Raymond Chan, Counsel Public Affairs: Ontario Professional Planners Institute

• Eshan Naik, Enterprise Canada: MVD X-Ray Technologies, McKesson Canada

• Benjamin Lamb, Wellington Advocacy: United Association Local 787-HVACR Workers of Ontario

• Duncan Rayner, Temple Scott Associates: Imperial Tobacco Canada

• Michael Rychlewski, Nock Technologies: MacKinnon Magnetics Inc.

In-house organizations: Association of Registered Interior Designers of Ontario — ventureLAB — AdvantAge Ontario — Speech-Language & Audiology Canada — McDonalds Canada Corp.

MEA CULPA! Yesterday’s second mention of Bill 127, the Liberal PMB that would give tax relief to young workers, named Stephanie Smyth as a co-sponsor — but as first noted, it’s actually Stephanie Bowman. TGIF, am I right?

🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NDPer JENNIE STEVENS (St. Catharines)…Ex-PC RICK BYERS…On Sunday — Newstalk 1010 host JERRY AGAR.

🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Smoked turkey pasta alla vodka with salad and garlic bread.

⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 6 days until the House is scheduled to recess…68 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Scarborough Southwest…176 days until the Liberals name a new leader.

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