What the chief economist reveals about the budget

Also: Hot takes, mystery $1.25B, municipal audits (or not), a victory lap, PCs bonspiel, Dong defence and more

ABOVE THE FOLD

BUDGET CHEAT SHEET — Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY tabled a “serious” budget for “uncertain times” — and while it may be the biggest in provincial history — it’s politically risky for the Ford government to sit on hefty rainy day funds when Ontarians are struggling now.

By the numbers: At $204.7 billion, it’s the largest ever. The coming year’s deficit will be $1.3 billion, but balance is around the corner, with a small $200 million surplus in fiscal 2024-25 and a $4.4-billion surplus the year after that.

Back in black: BRIAN LEWIS — recently retired chief economist in the Ontario Public Service who’s now a senior fellow and lecturer at U of T’s Munk School — says the red ink is pretty much already wiped out.

“It’s a rounding error from being balanced. I mean, if the government ended up really running a $1.3-billion deficit next year, in a trillion-dollar economy, on $200 billion worth of revenue and expenses — who cares? It is essentially balanced. It’s not zero, but…