SCOOP: A riding-by-riding guide to Liberal turnout

And Jama jabs

ABOVE THE FOLD

First in Observer — BY THE NUMBERS — The Ontario Liberals say a record-smashing 80,000-plus card-carrying members could decide who takes the party crown on December 2. But of course, turnout is rarely 100 per cent — and we’ve got the skinny on how many voters the party expects to cast a ballot, and from which ridings.

Yesterday, we told you about a relatively paltry number of student sign-ups on campus — something that burned party folks especially hard because of their extended deadline and disproportionate weight under the points system, leading some to question youth engagement.

Today, we’re going riding-by-riding to break down estimated turnout, thanks to a planning document the party’s veteran chief returning officer SIMON TUNSTALL sent to riding association presidents in order to help them prepare for the vote at the end of November.

Turnout: In the best case scenario, the party is bracing for just over half — 56 per cent — of eligible party voters to show up to vo…