Breaking down the FES
Also: Bill 28 is dead, strong mayors go, Laura Walton for NDP leader?
ABOVE THE FOLD
BY THE NUMBERS — Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY’s mini-budget dropped with some juicy nuggets. Here’s what you need to know:
— Ontario is seeing red. After a surprise $2.1-billion surplus last fiscal year, the Fall Economic Statement projects a $12.9-billion deficit for 2022-23. That’s followed by an $8.1-billion shortfall in 2023-24 and a $700-million budget hole in 2024-25 — suggesting the PCs are on track to balance the books just in time for the 2026 election.
— Could it be a recession? The current shortfall is roughly $6 billion less than what was forecast a few weeks ago (and a far cry from budget watchdog PETER WELTMAN’s prediction of a small $100-million surplus).
— But Bethlenfalvy’s outlook is much less rosy. The FES is based on private-sector forecasts and predicts much slower growth — including real GDP growth at 0.5 per cent in 2023. While some are warning of a recession on the horizon, Bethlenfalvy and Ministry bureaucrats are only talking …