Campaign ad watch: Did the attack work?
Plus: Meet the new chief info officer, Skilled Trades Ontario changes, AG on MZOs, Hillier claps back, duelling Islamophobia calls, eye exams in sight, kid doses, Ford speaks, and baby Khanjin arrives
ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Queen’s Park Observer — AD WATCH: With six months to go before the election campaign kick-off, the PCs and NDP went on the attack, blitzing ads on TV and radio that painted their political rivals in a negative light and pumped themselves up as the right choice for voters. So, how effective were the ads?
Tory insiders say their campaign is working. They pointed to recent Leger polls in particular, which suggest people had a less favourable view of Liberal Leader STEVEN DEL DUCA — a main target — after the PCs ad campaign ran.
Leger was in the field around the same time in October, when Del Duca turned up a 32 per cent “unfavourable” rating. A month later, 39 per cent of respondents said they had an unfavourable view of the Grit captain. Overall awareness of all the main party leaders was also up.
“So, the ad campaign is working,” one Tory war room strategist told me.
What NDP focus groups are saying: The competition is also feeling confident. The Official Opposition went on a pre-election ad blitz last month before spending limits kicked in, boosting longtime leader ANDREA HORWATH and dissing Premier DOUG FORD and Del Duca — and the internal response from online audiences is “encouraging,” said campaign director MICHAEL BALAGUS.
Here’s how it works. The NDP surveyed “several hundred” folks who had not seen the ads and gauged their approval and awareness of the party leaders — known as the “control group.” Then they surveyed a few hundred individuals who had seen the ads, and compared how both groups feel about the leaders.
“What we know is that awareness and approval of Andrea increases among folks that have seen the ad…and Ford’s approval ratings drop,” Balagus said. He isn’t publicly disclosing specific numbers, but called the trends “statistically significant” and noted that the online ads were mainly targeted at PC-NDP swing voters, “that is to say, they are voting PC or considering it.”
As for Del Duca: “Almost no one has a view of him because they have no idea who he is,” Balagus claimed. The NDP tested their anti-Del Duca spot in focus groups with Liberal voters who are considering casting their ballots for the NDP. After also watching the pro-Andrea ad, they were asked which leader they’d vote for and who’s best suited to defeat Ford. “The answer was overwhelmingly Andrea.”
“In virtually every case once a potential Liberal voter saw the Del Duca ad they were stunned that the Liberals had selected him leader and overwhelmingly said they could not vote for him or at minimum were now having major doubts about voting Liberal.”
By Balagus’s count, the ads reached about 1.4 million people online and millions more provincewide on TV and radio over three weeks.
All quiet on the Grit front: With Del Duca emerging as the man to beat in PC and NDP ads — which tie him to ex-Premier KATHLEEN WYNNE’s unpopular decisions — the Liberals called it a badge of honour. They teased an ad run of their own with a more positive spin, which is still forthcoming.
“Ontario Liberals will have ads ahead of the 2022 election. Thanks to our supporters, we have the funds to launch them when we decide to,” campaign director CHRISTINE MCMILLAN said by email. “Our digital program is incredibly successful at finding new Liberals who support the positive plan Steven Del Duca is putting forward.”
Big spenders (or not): Don’t expect to see many flashy ads with high production value again until the campaign officially kicks off in May. That’s because as of early November, political parties are subject to a $1-million ad spending cap in the six-month run-up to the election.
UPSHOT FROM THE AG’S ENVIRONMENTAL AUDIT
Controversial Minister’s Zoning Orders should be subject to public scrutiny — something the Ford government is ignoring when it comes to environmentally significant decisions, allowing polluters off the hook for certain costs and harming at-risk species. That’s according to the latest annual report from Auditor General BONNIE LYSYK and assistant AG and commissioner of the environment TYLER SCHULZ.
Here are the highlights:
— The Ford government “deliberately avoided consulting the public on environmentally significant decisions” by not posting decisions online for public feedback — which flies in the face of Ontario’s Environmental Bill of Rights, something the courts have also deemed unlawful. Citizens didn’t have a chance to weigh in on changes to the Environmental Assessment Act, conservation authorities, and MZOs, which bypass local decision-making to fast-track development.
— More than 73,000 hazardous spills have been reported in Ontario in the last decade, but the government only attempted to recover the cost of investigating the cleanup for three, and in those cases, only pursued half of the $1.3-million cost. Another probe of 30 spills was pegged at a response cost of at least $4.5 million for taxpayers.
— When it comes to recycling, the government will likely fail to meet its own waste diversion targets because businesses aren’t being held accountable. About 50 per cent of residential waste is diverted from landfills, compared to only 15 per cent of industrial waste.
Environment Minister DAVID PICCINI defended the government’s record and promised “meaningful” action on the environment.
OPPO REACTS — Critics said the audits are proof the PCs don’t care about the environment. “Ontarians know the climate crisis is the greatest threat our world faces. Yet Premier DOUG FORD is continuing to do whatever his buddies want, no matter what it costs the rest of us,” said NDP critics PETER TABUNS and SANDY SHAW.
Meanwhile, the PCs campaign pledge to restore the AG’s oversight powers over government advertising is kaput.
SHOTS FOR TOTS INCOMING
Kid-sized doses of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine may be booked as of 8 a.m. today. Parents can get appointments for little ones aged five to 11 via the provincial booking system, local health units and certain pharmacies.
“We should be able to start getting shots into little arms by about Thursday,” Health Minister CHRISTINE ELLIOTT told reporters, adding that one-third of Covid cases are now cropping up in school-aged kids. “That speaks to the need of getting children vaccinated.”
Kids must be turning five-years-old by the end of 2021 and born in 2016 to get the shot — though there was some confusion over whether those born in 2017 will be eligible in 2022. The government put out a handy FAQ to clear things up.
Elliott confirmed the province will follow NACI’s recommended 8-week interval between doses, of which Ontario’s share is 1,076,000. The minister also reiterated that inoculations will take place after-hours in schools and rattled off some statistics suggesting about half of parents want their kids vaccinated posthaste, while another 30 per cent want more information.
SPAMMERS, BEWARE — Meanwhile Solicitor General SYLVIA JONES has “confidence” in the vax booking system — as the province investigates a possible security breach following reports of spam texts received by folks who interacted with it. Jones said no one’s been scammed out of money, as far as she knows.
DOUG FORD’S MONDAY — The Premier was in Orillia to announce an expanded training program for workers looking to enter a different field. The Second Career Program, designed for unemployed and recently laid off workers, will soon be open to gig workers, the self-employed, and those with little or no experience — providing up to $28,000 for education and living expenses during the training.
The province is also proposing to extend the Jobs Training Tax Credit, which offers up to $2,000 in relief for 50 per cent of a person’s eligible training expenses, such as tuition, to 2022.
FORD’S FUNDRAISING ITINERARY — The Premier is headlining a $1,000-a-ticket Meet and Greet in Markham on Thursday. Invite. Last week, Ford was spotted at a big-ticket “Leader’s Dinner” fundraiser, which wasn’t explicitly advertised. We called it anyway.
HAPPENING TODAY
— 9 a.m. in Toronto: NDP Leader ANDREA HORWATH will re-up the call for more paid sick days alongside her MPPs and labour advocates.
— 10 a.m. at Evergreen Brickworks: Liberal Leader STEVEN DEL DUCA will make a platform announcement related to climate change at the former quarry and industrial site turned sustainable public space in Toronto.
— 10:30 a.m. in Bradford: Solicitor General SYLVIA JONES will make an announcement alongside Ontario Fire Marshal JON PEGG and area MPP CAROLINE MULRONEY.
— 11:30 a.m.: Education Minister STEPHEN LECCE will make an announcement in Mississauga.
— 2:30 p.m. in Belleville: Heritage Minister LISA MACLEOD will make an announcement about supporting the local Humane Society. Also on hand: Local MPP TODD SMITH (Bay of Quinte) and DONNA ENDICOTT, chair of the Quinte Humane Society.
— 6:30 p.m. in Markham: A $1,000-a-ticket PC fundraiser featuring MICHAEL PARSA (Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill) in Markham. Invite.
— 6:30 p.m. in Oakville: Liberal Leader STEVEN DEL DUCA and local candidate ALISON GOHEL are hosting an up to $250-a-head fundraiser at the Seasons Restaurant. RSVP.
ON THE ORDER PAPER
FIRST UP — MPPs will continue consideration of Solicitor General SYLVIA JONES’s motion extending pandemic-era emergency powers until March 28. It needs a couple more hours of debate before it can be voted on, which could happen as soon as after Question Period.
Later on, it’s back-to-back debate on the NDP’s private members’ bills 8 and 14, which would enshrine 10 days of paid sick leave and at least four hours of daily care for nursing home residents, respectively.
Duelling anti-Islamophobia calls are coming from the NDP and Liberals. Leader ANDREA HORWATH teased the NDP’s forthcoming legislation, known as the Our London Family Act, which will be tabled in early 2022 and was drafted in partnership with the National Council of Canadian Muslims. Moments after Horwath’s presser — which turned emotional when NCCM head MUSTAFA FAROOQ talked about the London attack on a Muslim family — Leader STEVEN DEL DUCA offered to have one of his MPPs co-sponsor it and urged its speedy passage in a presser of his own, also featuring Farooq.
While Oppo bills rarely make it into law, voting against a proposal to combat Islamophobia could be bad optics for the majority-enjoying PCs.
Per the NDP, the legislation would “create a provincial hate crimes accountability unit that provides best practices, collects data, and investigates potential gaps in combatting hate incidents. It will dismantle white supremacist groups by preventing them from registering as societies, and prevent acts of intimidation on provincial property or targeting worshippers at synagogues, mosques, or gurdwaras. It will restore the provincial Anti-Racism Directorate. And it will give Ontario schools new tools to help young people understand Islamophobia.”
PC Citizenship Minister PARM GILL also got in on the NCCM meetings:
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — Two appointees get grilled on their new roles this morning at the Government Agencies Committee. MARK BRICKELL — apparently the former embattled chief administrative officer of the Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority and a PC donor — is up for a gig on the Ontario Parole Board. ALAYNE CRAWFORD — the head of government and regulatory affairs at IBM Canada — will talk about joining the Collège d'arts appliqués et de technologie La Cité collégiale board of governors.
BILLS, BILLS, BILLS — Long-Term Care Minister ROD PHILLIPS will be the opening act for public hearings on Bill 37, which increases penalties and inspections with an eye to beefing up accountability in the troubled sector. The witness roster hasn’t been posted yet but hearings kick off Wednesday at the Legislative Assembly Committee.
Labour Minister MONTE MCNAUGHTON’s omnibus labour bill is also up for a possible makeover during clause-by-clause consideration at the Standing Committee on Social Policy.
WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT: BELINDA KARAHALIOS — booted from the PC caucus for voting against the emergency powers in the first place — won’t be there to voice her opposition after testing positive for Covid. I scooped the details in yesterday’s edition — complete with shade thrown at fellow ousted PC RANDY HILLIER, who recently started a rival Tory spinoff party called Ontario First (also scooped in Queen’s Park Observer). The Clerk’s office is contacting MPPs and staff who may have been exposed to Covid when Karahalios was in the House last week.
HILLIER CLAPS BACK — Hillier slammed New Blue Party founders Belinda and husband JIM KARAHALIOS on social media yesterday, after Belinda put out a statement criticizing Hillier for being MIA in the House because of masking rules.
“Jim and Belinda Karahalios are the latest actors attempting to denigrate our efforts by engaging in the same smear campaigns, false accusations, and preying on those who are unaware of parliamentary process and procedure,” Hillier said in a statement posted to social media. “I will not engage in the deceitful theatrics of the Ontario Legislature…I will not wear a mask or engage in faulty medical testing, nor will I reveal my medical status,” he went on to say of the Legislature’s proof-of-vaccination-or-test policy.
In case you missed it: Here’s who’s on the government benches for the rest of the fall session, to align with pandemic-era cohorting. Transportation Minister CAROLINE MULRONEY was swapped in for her Associate Minister STAN CHO — the recent subject of negative headlines related to his father’s golf course being spared in the re-routing of the Bradford Bypass.
MAKING HEADLINES
— END IN SIGHT: Optometrists will start offering eye exams for children and seniors today, pausing the job action as a “sign of good faith” after agreeing to enter formal talks with the province. The Ontario Association of Optometrists withdrew the OHIP-funded services September 1 amid a funding dispute. To wit: Optometrists say Ontario is underfunding the program, leaving them 45 per cent out of pocket. While the government has proposed an 8.48-per cent increase in reimbursements — to the tune of $39 million — optometrists argue that would only bring the covered cost up to $48, when exams run around $75 to $80.
GILA MARTOW — the soon-to-be-ex-PC who called out her own government’s approach to the negotiations — seems satisfied, tweeting that she’s “pleased” the parties are “finally seeing eye to eye!”
— SKILLED TRADES INSPECTORS GET THE PINK SLIP: Layoff notices have been issued to more than 30 inspectors with the College of Trades as the agency is dissolved and rolled into a new Crown corp called Skilled Trades Ontario. CBC has the skinny. More on this later in the Regulatory Roundup.
— GREEN ON THE MENU: Uber Eats is offering pot for pickup, listing cannabis retailer Tokyo Smoke on its roster.
— PANDEMIC TRACKER: For the first time since Ontario started posting data on case counts and vax status, breakthrough infections in vaccinated people have outpaced infections involving the unvaccinated. But it’s a narrow gap: Of Monday’s 627 cases, 286 were double-dosed, 282 were unvaccinated, 36 were status unknown, and 23 are in the single-dosed.
— CUTTING CLASS: The country’s biggest school board is delaying unpaid leave for some unvaccinated staff citing concerns over shortages — especially in special-ed. The Toronto Star has the details.
— IN MEMORIAM: Ontario Senator and Sudbury native JOSÉE FOREST-NIESING has passed away following a battle with Covid. Forest-Niesing was fully vaccinated, but her office said she was more vulnerable to the virus because of an autoimmune condition impacting her lungs. The 56-year-old was known as a staunch advocate for French-language rights. Obituary from the CBC.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Queen’s Park Observer — MOHAMMAD QURESHI, a 20-year veteran of the Ontario Public Service, has taken on the role of interim Corporate Chief Information Officer, replacing DAFNA CARR, who’s now Associate Deputy Minister in charge of Service Ontario. Qureshi was previously chief info officer at Infrastructure Technology Services, which provides pretty much all IT platforms for the OPS, and brings cyber security experience to the table — as the Ford government rolls out its ambitious digital government strategy.
SPOTTED:
Popular Twitter account Vaccine Hunters Canada back on the hunt for pediatric doses and boosters…Sanitary swag on the GO train…A different kind of Pizzagate in Norfolk County…Conservative MP and PC war room vet MELISSA LANTSMAN’s familiar inscription in the House of Commons:
QUESTION PERIOD
No leaders in the House — Ford and Horwath were off-campus making announcements — giving the morning debate a more loose, organic vibe.
THE HIGHLIGHTS: What’s the holdup on pre-registering kids for pediatric vaccines on the provincial booking system? — With the cost of everything rising, why aren’t social assistance rates? — Child care providers in Niagara operating at half of staffing capacity — Allow parents to use paid sick days to get their little ones vaccinated — AG report: “Dragging us back decades on climate action” — The delayed-surgery toll of lockdowns — Mining permits in Grassy Narrows First Nation — Sign a child care deal with the feds already — Symptomatic Covid testing in pharmacies only works for Premier DOUG FORD’s “big business buddies” — Do PCs agree with JOE OLIVER’s assessment that COP26 was chockfull of “virtue-signalling and moral gestures”? — Tackling housing affordability.
REGULATORY ROUNDUP
It’s Tuesday, which means it’s time to sum up the government’s latest proposals on the regulatory registry — where the nitty-gritty of policymaking is hammered out.
SKILLED TRADES 2.0 — The proposal: A third round of changes to transition the College of Trades to new Crown corp Skilled Trades Ontario. That includes amendments “related to continued regulatory permissions, transitioning terms, conditions and limitations, outstanding College proceedings, and ratio participation.” Deadline for public feedback: November 29.
DEER HUNT — Proposal: “Simplify deer seasons and increase consistency and weekend opportunity for gun hunters…The existing gun season(s) would be extended by 2 days (Saturday and Sunday) in [certain areas].” Deadline: January 4.
🍼 WELCOME TO THE WORLD: OLIVER STUART ROYAL, PC MPP ANDREA KHANJIN’s son, born November 21 at nine pounds and six ounces. “KEVIN ROYAL and I are thrilled to be parents to this little giant!” Khanjin said on Facebook.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: OMAR KHAN, longtime Liberal strategist and current cannabis company exec.