Cracks in the PC fortress
And Welton's new gig
ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Observer — THE SEVEN-YEAR ITCH — DOUG FORD is losing one of his ride-or-die staffers to Rubicon Strategy, the firm run by his three-peat campaign whisperer KORY TENEYCKE.
CODY WELTON — who’s been with the Premier since the summer of 2018, most recently as deputy chief of staff on issues management, media relations and Leg affairs — announced his exit last evening.
To those on the outside, Welton is known as a savage tweeter who runs a tight ship at the Leg. To those who work closely with him, he’s “kind beyond measure.”
“One of the most friendliest faces in PO, always brings a smile or a good story to the office,” said one staffer.
In his farewell post, Welton described that “special feeling” of working at the Pink Palace, saying that while it’s “still alive and well within me, I have made the decision to move on. Every person who works in politics, staff or elected, must make a choice when to leave, or the people will do it for you.”
He went on to thank Ford, MPPs, Ministers, and “those whom I spent countless hours with, the early mornings, the late nights (sometimes all night), and the weekends working with during my time in the OLO and PO - thank you.” Full statement.
What Welton didn’t say is where he’s headed — I’ve learned he’ll join Rubicon’s ranks as a vice president next month, after the PC Party’s convention. Under Ontario’s ethics rules, Welton won’t be allowed to lobby his former boss in PO for a year, but other Ministries are fair game.
It’s a big get for a firm that has snatched up other Ford government alumni like SARAH LETERSKY and JAN O’DRISCOLL. Teneycke’s crew belong to one of the most powerful lobbying firms in the province, and that’s come with it’s fair share of controversy. The Liberals even started calling Teneycke the “shadow premier” after revelations that Rubicon clients got a major chunk of Skills Development cash. Teneycke has brushed off the criticism.
Welton isn’t the only veteran to leave Ford’s inner circle. Last spring, the Premier lost another one of his OG staff who had been with him since day one: IVANA YELICH, who’s now heading up government and corporate affairs at Labatt Breweries. Catch up on recent moves in PO.
Hot off the presses! — POLL WATCH — The PCs are sitting pretty in the polls, but a closer look at the numbers suggests the government is coasting on brand strength while its leader’s personal stock hits a new low.
Despite the ruling PCs commanding a comfortable seven-point lead over a leaderless (yet still brand-strong) Liberal pack, there seems to be a growing sense of unease among the electorate.
Upshot from this morning’s Liaison Strategies survey: Nearly two-thirds of Ontarians now believe the province is headed in the wrong direction. And that “time for a change” vibe could morph into a genuine threat for the PCs, who are still the party to beat, but people seem to be souring on the captain.
By the numbers: DOUG FORD’s PCs clocked in at 42 per cent, with the rudderless Liberals securing an impressive 35 per cent among decided and leaning voters. MARIT STILES’s Official Opposition NDP is trailing at 17 per cent, with the MIKE SCHREINER-led Greens at 3 per cent, and “other” parties coming in at 2 per cent.
Ford isn’t polling as well as his party — his personal approval rating is 31 per cent, versus 65 per cent who disapproved. That’s a smidge worse than what Angus Reid had Ford at last December, when he scored a 34-per-cent approval rating, making him dead-last among the Premiers (if we’re not counting outgoing Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT).
Another telling nugget: 62 per cent of respondents believe Ontario is headed in the wrong direction, and only 29 per cent said it’s going in the right direction (another 9 per cent were unsure).
No leader, no problem: “Right now, the Ontario Liberal Party doesn’t have a leader, and what that means is people are free to project and to pretend that the new leader will be exactly the kind of leader they might like,” said pollster DAVID VALENTIN. “Once we actually see a leader, of course, we’re going to see the Progressive Conservatives take out a whole bunch of ads and try to define them before they have a chance to define themselves to the electorate.”
Location, location, location: In the vote-rich 905, which can make or break governments, the PCs and Liberals are neck-and-neck, at 41 per cent and 42 per cent, respectively. That’s a dramatic turnaround, given the PCs dominated that region in the last election. They’re a little further apart in the 416 (38 per cent for the PCs, 46 per cent for the Grits) and the North (32 per cent for the PCs, 41 per cent for the Libs).
It’s not all bad news for the NDP — they’re doing slightly better than Liaison’s last poll, especially in South Central pockets of the province (34 per cent). Valentin said the 905 numbers are similar to what Liaison polled in December.
“We said back then that we need to take these numbers with a grain of salt. Now, seeing this again for a second month in a row, and when you combine it with the Premier’s approval and with the direction of the province, all of a sudden, you have the components that tell you: People might be voting for the Premier, but a lot of them are not happy with the way things are going. What that says to me is the Opposition parties do have an opportunity.”
