Grits play the numbers game
"Membership inflation that would make Patrick Brown blush"
ABOVE THE FOLD
BY THE NUMBERS — The Liberal leadership contest is anybody’s game.
Now that we’ve got some sense of the membership numbers from each of the five camps, it’s not clear who will end up claiming the crown on December 2 — so the five debates, including the first on Thursday in Thunder Bay — could play a big factor.
Each campaign released numbers on how many members they’ve signed up before Monday’s cut-off — some more specific than others. Card-carrying Grits had to be locked in yesterday in order to be eligible to vote for the next leader.
Why it matters: For the first time in party history, the Grits are joining most other parties in the country and electing the next leader via one-member-one-vote and a ranked ballot, rather than the antiquated (albeit more entertaining) delegated system. So the more folks a wannabe leader signs up, the better their shot at winning the contest.
But as it stands, there’s no clear frontrunner and it’s unlikely a winner will be declared on the first ballot.
The tally: BONNIE CROMBIE — who has led the pack on fundraising and recognizability in the polls — came out on top, signing up 38,700 supporters. YASIR NAQVI brought in “north of 31,000.” ADIL SHAMJI, the last to register to run, boasted 12,063 sign-ups. NATE ERSKINE-SMITH and TED HSU are playing it coy, saying only that they pulled “tens of thousands” and “thousands”, respectively.
Something’s not adding up: It’s not unusual for leadership campaigns to self-report inflated numbers — and that could be happening here. The official line from party HQ is that there are over 80,000 eligible voting members after the deadline — which is still impressive given that’s more than double the party faithful. Still, when you add up the numbers from just Crombie, Naqvi and Shamji, it’s well over the official tally.
It’s “membership number inflation that would make even PATRICK BROWN blush,” texted one senior Liberal operative — referencing the ex-PC leader’s own fancy financial footwork.
Location, location, location: It’s not just how many people the campaigns sign up that matters, but also where those members are. That’s because of the makeup of the leadership contest and the disproportionate weight that small, rural and Northern ridings will carry.
Think of it as the “moneyball” of leadership contests. For instance, if there are 5,000 Liberals in Mississauga Centre, leadership hopefuls would have to woo a 2,500-large chunk to hit the 50 per cent threshold. If there are 100 card-carrying Grits in, say, Timmins, they would have to lock in fewer members to meet that 50-per-cent support.
HOT-POTATO HOUSING — Another day, another housing backtrack.
The latest: New Housing Minister PAUL CALANDRA is still in damage control mode over the Greenbelt land swap, which means another “review” of his predecessor’s housing policy. This time, the Ford government is hitting pause on the possibility of ripping up regional governments in Durham, Halton, Niagara, Simcoe County, Waterloo and York.
Long-awaited facilitators to oversee that process were supposed to be named yesterday — but Calandra now says his next update will come at the end of September. Calandra also wants to ask a committee to look into the matter.
Interestingly enough, Peel region’s split — which was further ahead and already has a transition board to oversee the divorce of Mississauga, Brampton and Caledon — is plowing ahead.
Oppo pounced. Critics called it another “flip flop” from a government in crisis mode. “This back-of-the napkin ‘review’ is yet another sign of a government in total disarray,” said the Greens’ MIKE SCHREINER. “Yet another flip flop that makes it harder for municipalities to care for their residents and plan for the road ahead.”
HAPPENING TODAY
10:30 a.m.: Interim Liberal leader JOHN FRASER is in the Media Studio to talk about the Greenbelt saga — but he’ll likely pump up his party’s membership numbers, too.
12:25 p.m.: Outgoing Lieutenant Governor ELIZABETH DOWDESWELL is touring Muskoka Lakes, marking her 100th visit to a provincial municipality.
One wild theory: A fun rumour going around the Pink Palace is that King CHARLES is coming to town, and the Premier could mark the occasion by proroguing the House and delivering another Speech from the Throne to welcome new LG EDITH DUMONT. Take that one with a grain of salt — “nothing has been formalized,” the LG’s office said.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — 9 a.m.: Estimates hearings continue. Under the microscope at Finance and Economic Affairs is the 2023-24 spending plans for the ministries of Trade, Labour and Treasury Board. Ministers VIC FEDELI, MONTE McNAUGHTON and newly shuffled CAROLINE MULRONEY will be the opening act, followed by senior bureaucrats. Livestream.
SPOTTED:
Ex-Premier KATHLEEN WYNNE predicting that the other shoe is poised to drop on the Greenbelt…NDP critic WAYNE GATES welcoming new Long-Term Care Minister STAN CHO with a committee grilling…The infamous giant rubber duck back in the Toronto harbour.
CLIPPINGS
— MARCHING ORDERS: It’s funny what a difference a second mandate and an even bigger majority can make. Global News was leaked the Ford government’s 2018 ministerial mandate letters — the Premier’s marching orders to cabinet — and it’s a stark contrast to the little that’s been revealed on the 2022 letters, which legislative watchdogs partly published in relation to their Greenbelt probes. The PCs had taken its fight to keep the letters under wraps to the country’s top court, arguing cabinet confidentiality — but someone spilled the beans.
Good optics: The 2018 letters are a good look for the PCs — they talk about being for the people and ministerial accountability — but in the context of the Greenbelt saga, and the fact that the more recent 2022 letter on Housing seemed more meaty (and advised the Minister to open up the protected zone post-haste), it only fuels curiosity over the current mandate letters.
Global is putting out fresh scoops all week.
Timing is everything: CBC — which fought for the letters’ release in court — says the province has spent at least 1,672-taxpayer funded hours on the legal battle.
— NUKE ‘EM: “Bruce Power’s Unit 6 nuclear reactor was reconnected to Ontario’s electricity grid after more than three years of refurbishment.”
— AFZAAL CASE: “Canadian federal prosecutors argued that a man facing murder charges in the deaths of four members of a Muslim family was motivated by white nationalist beliefs as they branded the attack an act of terrorism.” Story from AP.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
BEYOND THE BUBBLE — SAAD RAFI — veteran Deputy Minister and CEO of the 2015 Pan Am Games — has joined Santis Health as an executive adviser.
ADAM YAHN, Queen’s Park and Ontario Real Estate Association alumni, has been promoted to vice president and partner at Summa Strategies.
REGULATORY ROUNDUP
On Tuesdays, we sum up the government’s latest proposals on the regulatory registry — where the nitty-gritty of policymaking is hammered out.
ALL MINES — The proposal: After an initial consultation, the Ministry is seeking feedback on refined regulations re: the Building More Mines Act — namely, to deal with “closure plans for advanced exploration and mine development projects” and the elimination of Ministry technical reviews, which is “offset by strengthening the certification structure, removing gaps in certified items where appropriate, and defining a ‘qualified person’ such that it incorporates appropriate training, experience, education, and expertise.” Deadline for public feedback: October 9.
GONE FISHIN’ — Proposal: “To add Jade Perch (Scortum barcoo) to the list of species that are eligible for aquaculture in Ontario. Only species listed…may be legally cultured in Ontario with an aquaculture licence.” Deadline: October 23.
💍 WEEKEND WEDDING: NDPer SARAH JAMA tied the knot with partner AMR ABDEL-LATIF (MARIT STILES and fellow New Democrats joined the celebration).
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY (BELATEDLY): JOE MANCINELLI, LiUNA’s Canadian director.
⌛COUNTDOWN: T-minus 13 days until the House reconvenes…81 days until the leadership contest…123 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Kitchener Centre.