How the byelection is playing out
What Bonnie Crombie will say in London
ABOVE THE FOLD
PCs KILLED THE RADIO STAR — Last night’s byelection in Bay of Quinte was never going to upset the balance of power at Queen’s Park — but it has decidedly shaken up the race for second place.
Horse race: Councillor and candidate TYLER ALLSOPP managed to hang on to the riding for the PCs, beating out the Liberals’ SEAN KELLY by 2,002 ballots, according to Elections Ontario’s early results. Allsopp wound up with about 36 per cent of the vote, a far cry from the 49 per cent TODD SMITH scored in 2022.
Tories are breathing a sigh of relief this morning after expressing concerns about “too-close-for-comfort” polling that suggested they were neck-and-neck with the Grits — or, according to their own intel, that the Liberals would come in a close second and overtake the NDP, which was runner-up in 2022.
After bussing out door-knockers, enlisting heavyweight front-benchers — including Premier DOUG FORD himself — to canvass, and making it rain vote-grabbing goodies in the days leading up to E-Day, they managed to keep the seat blue.
But Kelly, a popular radio broadcaster (like Smith) and councillor, gave them a run for their money. The Grits say that shows they’re the top alternative to Ford and the PCs. “We’ve been the underdogs since day one, yet the voters sent a clear message that we are the only party who can take on Doug Ford,” said BONNIE CROMBIE.
The Grits have been picking up in a recent string of byelections. After winning in Scarborough and Ottawa last year, they managed to move into second place in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex. Per the party, they’ve increased their vote share an average of about nine per cent in each byelection.
That’s especially bad news for the actual Official Opposition NDP, which was schlepped into third place last night. School trustee AMANDA ROBERTSON brought in 23 per cent of the vote, ten points behind Kelly’s 33 per cent. She insists the fight is far from over: “I’m just getting started.”
Voter turnout was 38 per cent. And the rest:
BONNIE’S BIG SPEECH — After last night’s results, BONNIE CROMBIE and the Liberals will cruise into London on a high note to kick off their three-day annual general meeting and policy convention today.
Party time: It’s a rah-rah moment ahead of what could be an early election next spring. About 1,200 card-carrying Grits will start to hammer out the policies that will form their election platform. They’ll deal with some constitutional tweaks — but that hot-potato change to leadership reviews is dead on arrival.
Crombie will pump up her troops in a big speech and rally on Saturday evening. Expect her to paint the Grits as the “only alternative” to DOUG FORD and hit hard on health care, said one senior Liberal.
“Her speech is going to have a laser focus on two things: prosecuting the case against Doug Ford and laying out clearly just how deeply he has failed Ontario over the last six years, on health care, on the economy, on everything except his sketchy obsession with booze,” added another source.
It’s going to be all about how Liberals need to “get ready to fight so we can bring our province back from the brink,” they said.
Another elephant in the convention room: Crombie initially said she wanted to be on stage with half her 124-candidate slate, but that won’t happen. They’ve got about a dozen contenders locked in so far, mostly incumbents, with others lined up in the coming weeks, including:
LEE FAIRCLOUGH in Etobicoke-Lakeshore (scooped here)…VINCE GASPARRO in Eglinton-Lawrence (scooped here)…TYLER WATT in Nepean (scooped here)…TESS PRENDERGAST in Dufferin-Caledon…and CATHY BURGHARDT-JESSON in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.
Ice breakers: Keynote speakers like ex-Health minister JANE PHILPOTT have sparked speculation that they could be running under Crombie’s banner. Meanwhile, ex-B.C. premier CHRISTY CLARK’s appearance sent New Democrats into titters — here’s what Clark’s ex-husband MARK MARISSEN had to say about that.
HAPPENING TODAY
9 a.m.: Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA is in Toronto.
11:15 a.m.: RIC BRESEE, Sarkaria’s Parliamentary Assistant, is up in Kingston.
11:45 a.m.: Long-Term Care Minister NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA is in Ottawa.
1 p.m.: Labour Minister DAVID PICCINI is in Gloucester.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 8:30 a.m.: Hit the links with Education Minister JILL DUNLOP in Hawkestone for $250. 6:30 p.m.: PC RUDY CUZZETTO is shilling in Vaughan for $250.
CLIPPINGS
— POLL WATCH: “Time for a change,” says a whopping 58 per cent of Torontonians who were surveyed about DOUG FORD. According to Maru Public Opinion, 55 per cent believe Ford is doing a bad job for the city, 30 per cent think he deserves re-election, while 58 per cent say it’s time for a change.
That last one — the “time for a change” gauge — is often something pollsters point to as the biggest indicator of whether an incumbent can hang on to power. That said, Maru’s poll only covers Toronto, which, as far as the seats go, isn’t exactly in love with Ford.
Meanwhile: Ford’s approval rating is still hovering at 31 per cent, according to the Angus Reid Institute’s latest ranking, which puts him second-to-last compared to the other premiers.
— RECEIPTS REVEALED: Highlights from the Public Accounts, the actual receipts for the last fiscal year: “Bill 124 backpay cost increases again, closing in on $7 billion”… “Ontario ends 2023-24 with nearly balanced budget, partly due to international tuition.”
Here’s what Tory and New Democrat consultants got paid, including a cool $949,776 for Campaign Research, pollster NICK KOUVALIS’s firm (Liberals and Greens don’t have recognized status and therefore no payouts via Caucus Services Bureaus):
MEA CULPA! This edition has been updated to reflect the screenshot shows both NDP and PC payouts.
— TRIAL BALLOON LEAK? “The Ontario government is considering bringing forward legislation that could prohibit the installation of bike lanes when lanes for motor vehicles are removed as a result…CBC News has obtained internal government draft documents indicating such a proposal has been under consideration, which several sources with knowledge of the proposed bill confirmed. It is not, however, clear if the measure has been formally brought before cabinet.”
— ONE MORE FOR THE GRAVY TRAIN: “Ontario courts are stretched to their limits. Will a new minister of bail reform help?” Global delves in.
— CAMPUS CONFIDENTIAL: ALEX USHER, who leads the post-secondary consulting firm Higher Education Strategy Associates, crunches the numbers to show how Colleges make their money amid student visa caps.