How the new electoral map plays out in Ontario
Also: PC-tied Trillium donation, Bonnie blushes, Butts backs NES, Greenbelt probe, takeaways from the FAO, Miller time, fiscal birthdays
ABOVE THE FOLD
MAPPING THE NEW BOUNDARIES — We enlisted fellow electoral junkie KYLE HUTTON to map out the proposed new federal electoral boundaries on to provincial results to predict how future elections could go.
Yes, the federal electoral boundary changes are just a proposal at this point, and it’s true that the feds, let alone the province, may not adopt them. But Ontario has mimicked federal boundaries in the past (while holding on to extra seats up north), and Premier DOUG FORD has shown he’s a fan of consistency, like when he rejigged Toronto’s boundaries to align with provincial and federal ridings.
Plus, I’m an election nerd and I know many of you are too.
So let’s dig into Hutton’s crystal ball — but first, some caveats: We decided not to include the northern ridings in the projection because the province has more seats than the feds, which throws off the results big time. We also chose to map both the 2022 and 2018 results on to the new federal boundaries since the last election was skewed heavily towards the PCs.
Federally speaking, Ontario would get one more seat, bringing the total to 122 — but Toronto proper loses a spot, ditto the north (Provincially, there are 124 seats.)
Under those boundaries, the makeup at Queen’s Park doesn’t change much — but there would be some tough nomination battles, closer races for the Grits and Greens, more power to the PCs, and at least one sitting NDPer who never would have been elected in the first place.
— In 2022, the PCs would have gained a few more seats under the proposed boundaries, electing 85 MPPs (instead of 83), while the NDP would have 30 (down one), with nine for the Grits (one extra) and the Greens staying the same at one. In 2018: The PCs would get 80 seats, the NDP would net 39, the Liberals get six and the Greens stand at one.
— Who’s in, who’s out: New Democrat JILL ANDREW, two-term MPP for Toronto—St. Paul’s, would never have been elected under the proposed boundaries. The Liberals would have managed to hold on to their former stronghold in 2022 and 2018.
“Liberal MPP MITZIE HUNTER (Scarborough—Guildwood) technically did not win under these boundaries in 2018, neither did ex-Liberal MPP MICHAEL COTEAU in Don Valley East. The new MPP for the riding, Liberal ADIL SHAMJI, would have technically won, but just barely because Don Valley East has been completely torn apart — it’s now part of three different ridings,” Hutton said.
As for the PCs: There was technically one loss — rookie DAVE SMITH in Scarborough Centre. “His riding gets attached with half of Don Valley East, so that becomes a Liberal pickup. Then there’s three pickups for the Conservatives in new seats: York—Durham, Milton East—Halton Hills South, and Brampton—Chinguacousy Park.”
— Tough nominations: The overlap could see sitting MPPs of the same political stripe going toe-to-toe in nomination contests. That includes PCs WILL BOUMA (Brantford—Brant) and DONNA SKELLY (Flamborough—Glanbrook).
— Close races: The proposed boundaries give the Greens their next best shot at growing their caucus of one. “Because the federal commission has lopped off the bottom half of Guelph [repped by Green Leader MIKE SCHREINER], and put it with the reformed Wellington—Halton Hills North — that’s now their third strongest riding across the province, behind Parry Sound—Muskoka, with 24 per cent support.”
— New territory: Transportation Minister “CAROLINE MULRONEY is no longer representing Bradford, that area with the Bradford Bypass — probably one of her biggest sore points. But she lives in Georgina, and Georgina is now part of the York—Durham riding,” Hutton said.
— At this point, there’s no redistribution plans for the province. That’s something Chief Electoral Officer GREG ESSENSA wants to change, recommending in his annual report that the government bring in a “regularly scheduled process for reviewing the electoral districts and boundaries.”
“Without a regular review process, Ontarians face a greater risk of ineffective representation,” Essensa said.
Hutton created a handy interactive map, which you can scroll over to see the vote shares in specific ridings. Play around with it here. I’ve also published the full breakdown in a spreadsheet. Check it out.
First in Queen’s Park Observer — ALL IN THE FIDANI FAMILY — Premier DOUG FORD was on hand to celebrate a multi-million dollar donation from the Orlando Corporation to Trillium Health Partners, to build the biggest health-care facility in the country.
The industrial real estate developer will match each donation made up to $75 million.
— Fun fact: Orlando Corp. is run by the philanthropic Fidani family, which includes NICO FIDANI, a principal at OnPoint Strategy who up until last fall was Ford’s manager of stakeholder relations and development.
BONNIE BLUSHES — BONNIE CROMBIE says she’s flattered by all the attention from Liberals hoping to woo her to run for leader — but she’s got her plate full as Mayor of Mississauga.
— Still, that’s not a no. Crombie confirmed she’ll be at the party’s weekend convention (she’s expected to hold court at a hospitality suite or two), but for her, it’s all about pushing municipal priorities.
Hitting up the hospitality suites at this weekend’s Liberal AGM? I want to hear from you, and I’ll keep you anonymous. Send me your Spotteds, hot takes and observations at sabrina@qpobserver.ca, or just reply to this email.
FAO REPORT — Top takeaways from the budget watchdog’s Q3 spending report: The PCs spent $6.4 billion less than expected in the first three quarters of fiscal 2022-23, with less cash going towards health, education, and municipal infrastructure.
— That’s nothing new (the PCs tend to say these reports are a “snapshot in time”), but Financial Accountability Officer PETER WELTMAN also raised concerns about “budget transparency” given that there’s been “an increase in the underspend amounts over the last couple of years.”
“That’s a problem,” Weltman said. “If there is a significant amount of money that isn’t being used, but had been approved…that doesn’t allow MPPs to have good insight as to the use of the money.”
— Meanwhile, the PCs are sitting on about $600 million in Covid response funding, which if left unspent, could be used to tamp down the deficit.
Why it matters: The Ford government has been accused of effectively inflating the deficit with big contingency funds that may not be doled out in full.
— Spoiler alert: Weltman also teased a report on the state of health care spending, which is due out next week.
HAPPENING TODAY
9 a.m.: Liberal Health critic and ER physician ADIL SHAMJI is in the Media Studio to tease his forthcoming private member’s bill to proclaim the third week of June as Health Professionals Week.
9:45 a.m.: Up next is the Registered Nurses’ Association of Ontario president CLAUDETTE HOLLOWAY and CEO DORIS GRINSPUN, to “release the association’s Nursing Career Pathways report to profile the many education and career pathways available to Ontario nurses.”
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6 p.m.: DOUG FORD’s annual Leader’s Dinner fundraising event for the PCs goes down in Toronto on March 2. Folks have to cough up $1,500 to snag a spot at what’s expected to be a minister-studded event. Invite.
ON THE ORDER PAPER
First up: Bill 69, Infrastructure KINGA SURMA’s legislation to change the environmental assessment process, continues to chug through second-reading debate. That’s expected to continue in the afternoon, which means Bill 69 could be off to committee as soon as next week.
Later on, NDPer WAYNE GATES will move his (non-binding) motion about prostate cancer screening.
Text: “That, in the opinion of this House, the Government of Ontario should follow the lead of eight other Canadian provinces and ensure PSA testing is an eligible procedure under OHIP for individuals referred by their healthcare provider.”
WEDNESDAY’S RUNDOWN:
Plowing ahead: Bill 60, which expands the private delivery of public health care, cleared a second-reading vote, sans Oppo support, and will now go under the microscope at the Social Policy committee.
Killed: The majority-enjoying PCs shot down backbench Bill 50 from Liberal STEPHANIE BOWMAN, which would have required publicly traded companies to disclose how they’re recruiting diverse folks to their boards.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
9 a.m.: A government appointee get grilled at the Government Agencies committee: ALICIA MUNIAN, who’s up for a role on the Council of the College of Opticians of Ontario. (Reminder: The committee can’t veto appointments, but can ask questions about how they got their gigs on the public record.)
AROUND THE PRECINCT
12 p.m.: As the Ontario Nurses’ Association enters into mediation with the Ontario Hospital Association, nurses will rally outside the Sheraton Centre Hotel, where mediation talks are taking place.
It’s also the Registered Nurses’ Asssociation of Ontario’s lobby day, featuring an MPP breakfast reception. Over at the courtesy flagpole, the Dominican Republic’s flag will be hoisted to mark its Independence Day.
CLIPPINGS
— GREENBELT PROBE: “Ontario Provincial Police have privately admitted that they have yet to find direct evidence that Premier Doug Ford or members of his government have violated provincial ethics laws, as the anti-rackets branch decides whether or not to launch an official investigation.” Global reports.
— BUDGET ASKS: ‘Tis the season. With the March 23 budget around the corner, stakeholders are making their demands. The latest comes from Ontario’s public health units, which “are calling on the government to stop using one-time funding to bridge a gap it created four years ago, and to provide them with a predictable source of money as they address a backlog of services built up over the COVID-19 pandemic.” Story from CP.
— COURTHOUSE UNVEILED, JUSTICE DENIED: “Calling it a ‘modern and accessible space,’ Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY officially opened the new Toronto courthouse on Tuesday amid criticism that it’s too small and poses safety and access-to-justice concerns.” The Star has the details.
SPOTTED:
Ex-NDPer PAUL MILLER (Hamilton East—Stoney Creek) in the chamber…Oppo Leader MARIT STILES and Lieutenant Governor ELIZABETH DOWDESWELL’s first meeting…GERRY BUTTS, former principal secretary to PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU, all but endorsing NATE ERSKINE-SMITH’s bid for provincial Liberal leader on the Uncommons pod.
Said Butts: “You should run. My days in active politics are over — but you should run because you’re exactly the kind of person who should be in positions like the one you’re seeking. You’re in it for all the right reasons and you should go for it, man.”
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Queen’s Park Observer — PROMOTION — In Infrastructure Minister KINGA SURMA’s office, ANDREA CHIAPPETTA is now a senior comms adviser and press secretary.
BEYOND THE BUBBLE — Pollster ADRIAN MACAULAY has joined Counsel Public Affairs as senior director of opinion research.
QUESTION PERIOD
“Another day, another NIMBY question from the Leader of the Opposition,” bemoaned Housing Minister STEVE CLARK, who sparred with NDP captain MARIT STILES to start the debate.
Stiles stuck with the Greenbelt carve-up for the second day in a row, pouncing on the new Environmental Defence report that suggests “there is more than enough land to build two million homes without punching massive holes in our Greenbelt.”
“So if it’s not about land for housing, what is it about?” Stiles wanted to know.
THE HIGHLIGHTS: “People in communities from Sault Ste. Marie to Sarnia to Barrie are sleeping in tents while this government is asleep at the wheel” — “End bad-faith evictions by passing the NDP’s Rent Stabilization Act” — “This government chose to give big developers a tax break with Bill 23 and is now forcing Ontarians to make up the difference” — “Immediately double ODSP rates” — “When Ottawa is in crisis, why does this government always turn its back and say no?” — “$150 an hour—that’s what some staffing agencies are charging not-for-profit long-term-care homes for a registered nurse” — With paid sick day program about to expire March 31, will the government renew so workers can stay home if they’re sick? — “Last year in Hamilton, 200 people called for an ambulance and none were available.”
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Terrance Oakey, One Persuasion: Merit Ontario
Amir Remtulla, Amir Remtulla: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust
Patricia Wilde, Daisy Consulting Group: Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation
Jeff Rutledge, McMillan Vantage: Arterra Wines Canada
Jonathan Lesarge and Davin Shinedling, Jenni Byrne + Associates: School Bus Ontario
John Allen, Global Public Affairs: Amazon Web Services, Fluor Canada Ltd.
Thomas Gendron, Impact Public Affairs: Canadian Urological Association
In-house organizations: Registered Practical Nurses Association of Ontario — United Way Greater Toronto — Canadian Consumer Specialty Products Association — York University — CNIB Foundation — Edwards Lifesciences — First Phosphate.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY…Ex-finance minister ROD PHILLIPS…CityNews reporter RICHARD SOUTHERN.
⌛ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 1 day until the Liberal Party convention…14 days until the byelection in Hamilton Centre…21 days until the budget drops…116 days until Toronto’s mayoral byelection.