Insiders dish on future Grit, NDP leaders
Plus: The Leg could be back sooner than you think, under-the-radar stories from E-Night, and Ford takes a victory lap
ABOVE THE FOLD
After a pretty boring campaign, Election Night in Ontario was explosive.
And just like that, it’s all over — literally, for Oppo leaders ANDREA HORWATH and STEVEN DEL DUCA — and the rumour mill is already churning out potential successors. Meanwhile, DOUG FORD took a victory lap for his 83-seat majority, fielding questions on everything from future cuts to the next cabinet.
Let’s dig in.
Horwath’s resignation was emotional but also felt inevitable — much more so than Del Duca’s departure. Liberal insiders tell me the lowest bar to keep him on as leader would be getting recognized party status, even if he didn’t win his own seat, which he did not. And with just 8 seats under their belt, June 2 was a brutal night for the Grits.
One theory on what went wrong: Many Liberal organizers are fuming at the fact that party HQ diverted resources, including get-out-the-vote operations, to Vaughan—Woodbridge, which Del Duca lost, instead of pushing hard in close races they wound up losing by a much narrower margin. That includes Eglinton—Lawrence, Toronto—St. Paul’s, Humber River—Black Creek and Willowdale.
Word on the street is MARY-MARGARET MCMAHON — who helped grow the Liberal caucus by one by wresting Beaches—East York from the incumbent-less NDP — could throw her hat in the ring for leader. But one insider suggested that if she did, she would likely get an endorsement from Team Del Duca, and that would be “poison” for her bid.
MITZIE HUNTER, who held on to Scarborough—Guildwood, could also take another crack at the top Liberal job — but some worry the former minister would get weighed down by her Wynne-era baggage, and suffer the same fate as Del Duca.
“I love Mitzie but she couldn’t put it together last time,” texted another Grit, referring to Hunter placing second-to-last in the 2020 leadership contest.
Other names being bandied about: YVAN BAKER, the former MPP, now MP in Etobicoke Centre, and MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH in Beaches—East York.
The NDP have a bigger MPP-pool to choose from to replace Horwath. MARIT STILES in Davenport, KRISTYN WONG-TAM in Toronto Centre and CATHERINE FIFE in Waterloo are getting lots of buzz. Stiles hasn’t ruled out a takeover bid, while JOEL HARDEN (Ottawa Centre) says he’s considering it.
Horwath and Del Duca may be down provincially, but they’re not out when it comes to politics. Horwath has already opened the door to a possible municipal bid in Hamilton this October, while speculation mounts that Del Duca could try for Vaughan Mayor now that MAURIZIO BEVILACQUA has bowed out of re-election. Bevilacqua could also toss his hat in the ring for provincial leader.
It’s a moment of reckoning for both parties, which will soon pick an interim leader. That brings us to Ford, who won a resounding second majority mandate and may benefit from a weakened and leadership-preoccupied Opposition.
FORD SPEAKS — After laying low on the hustings, Ford met with reporters at the Toronto Congress Centre in Etobicoke, the same venue that served as PC HQ on E-Day. Here’s what went down.
— On whether he’ll stick to the PCs’ spring budget, a.k.a. re-election platform: “You’re going to see something very similar, if not almost identical. We worked hard on that budget and we’re going to move that forward. Maybe there will be a couple of tweaks here and there but for the most part we put our budget in front of the people and we ran on our budget and we’re going to stick to that.”
— On whether “efficiencies” is code for cuts: “I’m a strong believer in lean methodologies, driving standardization…making [it] easier to get things done and getting rid of the red tape and a lot of the unnecessary regulations…There’s so much room for efficiencies in government…There’s always better ways at delivering services in a more efficient way, at a lower cost — and that money that we save it can go right into health care, right into education.”
— On his political rivals calling it quits, Ford was magnanimous: “To Andrea, thank you for your years of service to the people of Ontario. Let there be no doubt that you wake up every day ready to fight for what you believe in…And to Steven, you have dedicated your life to public service and while we may not have agreed on everything, I know you want nothing but the best for Ontario’s future.”
— On his congratulatory call with PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU: “Both of us sat back and reviewed everything that we have got done together. There’s so much that unites us, we can disagree on things…but there is childcare, which was a phenomenal deal, the electric vehicles, the electric batteries, there was just a whole raft of things that we chatted about last night that have been great for the country.”
— On scrapping public-sector wage-capping Bill 124 (which was only in place for three years): “When you get inflation, we have got to treat people fairly. I guess a couple of these agreements lapse and I think August is the first one so we’re going to sit down and negotiate fairly, no matter what union it is.”
— On the next cabinet: “We’re going to sit down and look at every single region, look at every person’s skill level. We just have a fabulous, fabulous team. We were able to get to know each other over the last four years and the new candidates I got to know over the last little while.”
SCOOP: IN THE HOUSE — PC sources tell me the Legislature could reconvene later this summer, likely after June, to pass the spring budget and swear-in the new cabinet. MPPs aren’t slated to return until September 12, but the fall session could get pushed back by a week, to September 19.
AND ABOUT LAST NIGHT…By now, most of our savvy readers will know what went down on Election Day. So here are some under-the-radar highlights:
— THE SLEEPER PICK: BOBBI ANN BRADY was the sole Independent to win a seat, in Haldimand—Norfolk, previously long-held PC territory. Brady was endorsed by outgoing MPP TOBY BARRETT, her former boss, who was reportedly pushed out by the PCs. Questions are already swirling about whether the PCs will invite her to join their benches — Brady has a reputation for knowing that riding inside and out, so she’s considered an asset for the Tories.
— TURNOUT TANKS: At roughly 43.5 per cent, voter turnout was at an all-time low. Of the 10.7 million registered to vote, only 4.6 million bothered to cast a ballot, per early data from Elections Ontario. Lower turnout tends to favour the status quo, and the PCs, because older electors tend to vote more regularly and consistently prefer Conservatives.
— GREENS (STILL) FLYING SOLO: MIKE SCHREINER is heading back to Queen’s Park on his own. While he didn’t double his caucus as hoped, he can still claim a victory. The Green leader held on to his own seat in Guelph by the biggest vote margin of the night. And while the party’s hard push to elect MATT RICHTER in Parry Sound—Muskoka flopped, Richter managed to double his share of the vote, from about 20 per cent in 2018 to 40 per cent in 2022.
Why it matters: That means the Greens are in line for a bigger share of the per-vote taxpayer-funded quarterly subsidy that Elections Ontario doles out to parties that earn a certain threshold of votes.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY(ON SUNDAY): Ex-PC MPP GILA MARTOW…NDP MPP-elect JENNIFER FRENCH (Oshawa)…Canadian Press reporter PAOLA LORIGGIO.