ABOVE THE FOLD
As New Democrats descend on Niagara Falls this weekend, MARIT STILES is bracing for her close-up: a leadership review that could either be a coronation or a crack-up. Not everyone’s buying the kumbaya vibes we heard from longtime strategist ERIN MORRISON in yesterday’s Q&A — you know, the “she’s universally liked,” nothing-to-see-here line — especially after February’s snap election that left the Official Opposition with fewer seats and a bruised popular vote.
And over in Toryland, the Project Ontario crew is still stirring the pot, with a DOUG FORD-friendly operative jumping on their pod to ask the question Ford Nation would rather dodge: has the Premier really done enough?
NIAGARA NERVES — Some NDPers are poking holes in the sunny forecast longtime strategist ERIN MORRISON sketched out for MARIT STILES in yesterday’s newsletter.
One card-carrying New Democrat who’s headed to Niagara this weekend offered a counterpunch to the rosy picture: “You lost three seats. There was no mention of that, no mention of the number of votes. Tone deaf.”
This insider pointed out that while Stiles can still boast an “efficient vote,” her caucus is smaller than the one ANDREA HORWATH left behind — and the Black Caucus that once gave the NDP some historic heft is now gone. SARA JAMA’s ouster was seen by some as anti-Black racism, and the unresolved childcare push by former MPP LAURA MAE LINDO still stings. Sure, KEVIN YARDE exited caucus to sit as an Independent when Horwath was leader, but under Stiles, the party has also lost (then-incumbent) JILL ANDREW and (then-candidate) FAISAL HASSAN, who didn’t win their seats in February.
“That Black Caucus does not exist anymore,” they said, then bluntly added: “She didn’t win the election. There was all this discontent with Ford on housing, on affordability, on the government’s whole record — and the NDP couldn’t capitalize on it. That’s on her.”
And while Morrison painted the AGM as smooth sailing, the source warned not to underestimate the organizing that goes into these reviews: “You can bus in people, you can make sure the votes are there. So maybe she’ll get her 75 per cent. But let’s not pretend this is universal love.”
So, while Morrison insists Stiles is universally liked, the reality on the convention floor may be far messier — and the knives are definitely out in Niagara.
More potential fireworks: “The party has long been hostile toward nuclear energy. That could change this weekend.” TVO’s John Michael McGrath delves into the “heated discussion” that’s been taking place among the ranks.
Fun facts: Stiles is celebrating her birthday on Saturday with a sold-out wine tasting event at Flat Rock Cellars. The Falls will be lit up in orange tonight, and New Dems will bust a move in a “slide to the left” dance party featuring cash bar, snacks and a DJ. Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW will deliver a virtual keynote. Full agenda.
NERVOUS NATION — Meanwhile in PC world, Project Ontario proponents MATT SPOKE and CHRIS SPOKE had Tory strategist, lobbyist and DOUG FORD-defender CHRIS CHAPIN on their Hogtown podcast. The result? A lively back-and-forth on whether the Premier has done enough, if he’s lost his nerve (especially after getting booed at the Raptors victory parade), and what it really means to be a conservative in Ontario. Here are some choice takes (lightly paraphrased):