Nate Erskine-Smith's nomination drama exposed
Also: Another chief bites the dust, Hsu loses campaign manager, the latest crop of regulations, NDP caucus retreat, three big Qs for the Greenbelt
ABOVE THE FOLD
NATE ERSKINE-SMITH’s nomination drama comes back to haunt him and we’ve got three big questions for the Ford government’s latest Greenbelt review — but first: another chief of staff bites the dust.
SCOOP — MICHAEL BEATON has resigned as chief of staff to CAROLINE MULRONEY, who was just shuffled from Transportation to Treasury Board. Beaton worked as Mulroney’s right-hand staffer at MTO and on Francophone Affairs for the last three years, but he won’t be following her to the Treasury.
Don’t read too much into it, I’m told. While speculation was swift that Beaton’s exit had something to do with the Labour Day shuffle, my sources close to the situation say it was a long time coming and Mulroney was sad to see Beaton go. “He’s got a young family…and we work crazy hours” in government, said one source.
No word yet on Beaton’s new gig, but he’s sticking around the Leg for a few more days.
First in Observer — NES NOMINATION EXPOSED — Liberal MP and provincial leadership contender NATE ERSKINE-SMITH is facing fresh allegations of voter suppression that targeted low-income South Asian communities now that internal party documents related to a complaint about his federal nomination have been unearthed.
Back in 2014, Erskine-Smith was accused of using automated robocalls and mailers that discouraged rival candidates’ supporters from voting. Erskine-Smith denied any wrongdoing, and the complainant eventually dropped the appeal after the federal party named him the candidate. The party never made a ruling on the matter and Erskine-Smith went on to win the seat in Beaches-East York and has sat in the federal back benches ever since.
While it was briefly reported on at the time, no one has uncovered the full details of the drama — until now.
I got my hands on the internal party documents related to the nomination appeal from Erskine-Smith’s rivals, MARISA STERLING and ANDREW NISKER, as well as Erskine-Smith’s defence.
The smoking gun at the centre of the voter-suppression allegations are the robocalls and mailers that went out to party members in the Crescent Town neighbourhood, one in English and one in Bengali, in which Erskine-Smith’s campaign warned folks — many of whom were seen as his rivals’ supporters — about the voting rules.
They reminded members that they must purchase their $10 membership with their own money and warned “voters who did not buy their own membership will be stopped from voting” — but proof-of-payment wasn’t actually required.
“You must pay for your own membership. Buying a membership for someone else is fraud, and will result in a waste of the voter’s time,” it said.
In defence, Erskine-Smith’s camp argued that they had identified “a substantial number” of members who signed up that October and November who admitted they hadn’t paid the $10 fee, or that they had been signed up without their knowledge or consent.
“Our voice broadcasts and Canada Post distribution were directed at these October and November submission batches, regardless of the geographic location of those members in the riding, regardless of their income level, and regardless of their race, ethnicity, or religion,” Erskine-Smith wrote in his response. “The suggestion that we somehow targeted low-income minorities is also belied by the fact that we had strong supporters in these very same communities.”
Erskine-Smith argued that he targeted folks based on their sign-up date — according to his own evidence, 996 people were on the Bengali-language list, and most of them lived in the Crescent Town apartment complex, including Massey Square. There were 858 recipients on the English list, for which the geography is much more varied.
But, and it’s a biggie: According to Nisker’s evidence, 856 people on those lists — over 45 per cent — had signed up as Liberal members before that October 1.
Erskine-Smith’s response also admits that there were 3,967 “eligible members” out of 4,050 — but he still dispatched hundreds of robocalls and mailers which his opponents’ described as “misleading and intimidating.”
“Nate claimed the robocalls and letters were targeted only at people who joined later in the nomination process. But that wasn’t true — almost half the members he targeted were members longer than he alleged. He targeted minorities…and that’s not right,” one senior Liberal organizer says now.
The proof was in the pudding for Nisker’s team, which pointed to the relatively lower turnout for those who received Erskine-Smith’s messages.
By the numbers: Turnout for those who received the English mailer was 7.4 per cent, while only 11.3 per cent of Bengali recipients was 11.3 per cent. Overall, turnout for people who got either the robocall or the letter or both was 9.6 per cent.
That compares to 70.6 per cent turnout for members who did not receive any correspondence. “This is not unusual for long standing members who have been signed up over a 12-18 month timeframe. The only unusual number in this nomination was the low turnout among the signups by Sterling and Nisker. We have seen 30-40% turnout in this category on average,” Nisker’s team wrote.
Why it matters: Party insiders with first-hand knowledge of how nominations work are calling the tactics into question — especially in the context of the current Liberal leadership contest.
“A lot of the narratives that Nate has built around his leadership seem extremely hypocritical. The whole idea of doing politics differently — it’s like, no, that’s nonsense — you weaselled your way into the nomination. You won the nomination the good old fashioned way, by vote suppression. These are not unusual for nominations, it’s nothing particularly illegal, it was all just very misleading.”
Erskine-Smith’s rebuttal: Asked to address the allegations of voter suppression and targeting minorities, Erskine-Smith reiterated his defence from 2014. “Nate’s team documented multiple counts of cheating, including where members were signed up without their knowledge and where they hadn’t paid for their own membership,” said a campaign spokesperson.
“Nate’s team called out this cheating explicitly, affirmed the rules, and shared the documented evidence of cheating with the Liberal Party of Canada. One campaign brought forward a baseless appeal, which was reviewed by the National Party and went nowhere in light of the overwhelming evidence. Nate won the nomination in 2014 because he attracted people to politics who cared about integrity. He subsequently received support from 4 of the other nomination contestants.”
DON’T CALL IT A CLIMBDOWN — Hounded by the Greenbelt controversy, and down a minister and a chief of staff, Premier DOUG FORD says his new Housing Minister PAUL CALANDRA will take a “complete review” of the Greenbelt.
But: Ford said the review won’t hinder the opening-up of the lands under scrutiny by the Auditor General and Integrity Commissioner, which the watchdogs found was a “chaotic” and “biased” process that “favoured certain developers.”
Here are the big questions:
Will more land be up for grabs? Ford said the new review will take into account some 700 other longstanding requests to open up the protected lands — so long as they stand on their “own merits.”
Oppo critics are worried Ford has declared open season on the Greenbelt and again urged the government to restore the lands. The so-called “‘review’ risks opening up even more of the Greenbelt to the corrupt Conservatives’ wealthy insiders,” said NDP Leader MARIT STILES.
Is it enough to stop the bleeding? According to a fresh public-opinion survey from Abacus, the PCs popularity is slipping amid the Greenbelt drama — and the longer it drags on, the worse it’ll be for the majority-enjoying rulers. With a new minister at the helm, a review of an admittedly “flawed” carve-up and the housing narrative, the Ford government is hoping that’ll be enough to stop what’s arguably been their most problematic political imbroglio to date.
But it ain’t over yet: Don’t forget the Integrity Commissioner is looking into Ford’s daughter’s stag and doe and possibly whether RYAN AMATO broke ethics rules. The RCMP has also been sniffing around and could launch a full-on investigation.
Who’s in charge? Conservative circles are buzzing about the issues management (or lack thereof) on the Greenbelt front. So far, it’s been uncharacteristic of a government that, in the past, has been able to deftly stem the controversy by reversing course when they’re called out. Case in point: Backtracking on the unpopular pandemic move to shutter playgrounds.
But the Greenbelt mess has been a slow drip — first, Ford stood by his chief, who later resigned. Then he dug in his heels over keeping STEVE CLARK, days before Clark stepped back from the Housing portfolio. Now, weeks after admitting the process was flawed, they’ve promised to “review” it but are still plowing ahead.
“The way this is going, it could very well end up in Ford’s backyard…and he’s going to have to wear it one way or another,” said one Tory insider.
HAPPENING TODAY
10 a.m.: Housing Minister PAUL CALANDRA gets his feet wet and meets with reporters to discuss his new file in the Media Studio.
10:30 a.m.: Green Leader MIKE SCHREINER is up to talk about — you guessed it! — the latest Greenbelt review.
CAUCUS RETREAT — 9 a.m.: New Democrats head to Kitchener — byelection territory — for a three-day caucus retreat at the Crowne Plaza, where they’ll lay out their game plan for the upcoming legislative session. Spoiler alert: It’s all about the Greenbelt. Per the party: MARIT STILES will “lead the fight to restore ethics and trust to Queen’s Park in the wake of Ford’s Greenbelt corruption.
STRIKE WATCH — 10 a.m.: The Ontario Nurses’ Association and CUPE hit the picket lines outside Hastings & Prince Edward County Public Health.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — EXIT — Aurora Strategy’s EMMA WAKELIN is no longer campaign manager for TED HSU’s Liberal leadership bid. Wakelin is exploring “other opportunities.”
Speaking of the Grit contest: The ticket has been set in stone now that yesterday’s deadline to sign up to run for party captain has passed. BONNIE CROMBIE, NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, YASIR NAQVI, ADIL SHAMJI and Hsu square off in the first of five debates on September 14 in Thunder Bay.
BEYOND THE BUBBLE — Queen’s Park and Hill alumni ZITA ASTRAVAS has signed on to Wellington Advocacy as vice president, federal.
CLIPPINGS
— DON’T BANK ON IT: After Premiers DOUG FORD and DAVID EBY pressured the Bank of Canada to stop rate hikes, one prof is calling them out. More from CP: “Associate professor and founding director of McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy, Christopher Ragan says it’s ‘unfortunate’ that the premiers felt that sending these letters was useful. Ragan says it brings a political element to monetary policy decisions, which are supposed to be taken independent of government.” BoC’s decision comes down today.
— BACK TO SCHOOL (OR NOT): “A new report released as most Ontario students return to classrooms Tuesday says students at schools in wealthier and urban neighbourhoods have greater access to extracurriculars like sports and clubs.” CP reports.
— CODE RED: “Ontario’s network of publicly owned hospitals is in significant need of investment and repair, internal government documents reveal, with more than a quarter of all hospitals in the province listed as being in poor condition.” Global News has the scoop.
— DIRTY MONEY: “According to the head of the Ontario Real Estate Association, the province’s housing market is rife with dirty money. About $30-billion worth of ill-gotten gains has been laundered through Ontario real estate transactions over a 10-year period, according to a money laundering inquiry by the British Columbia government.” The Star has the story.
SPOTTED:
TVO workers picketing outside the Pink Palace…Stiles sporting a literal green belt…The Taxpayers Federation up in arms over their pet bugaboo: Ford’s expanded, post-Labour Day shuffled cabinet.
REGULATORY ROUNDUP
A short post-holiday week means a Wednesday Roundup — in which we sum up the government’s latest proposals on the regulatory registry, where the nitty-gritty of policymaking is hammered out.
FINE PRINT IN AJAX — The proposal: The Ford government’s has laid out the steps to return two parcels of land in Ajax back to the Greenbelt after they were put up for sale. Deadline for public feedback: October 20.
WATER-TAKING RULES — Proposal: “To streamline permissions for temporary water taking activities”…That includes: Removing “the current requirements to notify the local conservation authority of the water taking.” And: “Removing the current volumetric water taking limit of 400,000 litres of ground water per day with regards to taking ground water in relation to one or more dewatered work areas within a construction site. This would allow someone to self-register on the Environmental Activity and Sector Registry.” Deadline: October 30.
ENVIRONMENTAL PERMITS — Proposal: “Changes to streamline the permit-by-rule framework. This will help us propose improvements to the province's environmental permissions by moving more activities to permit-by-rule, while ensuring protection of the environment.” Deadline: October 30.
WASTED — Proposal: “Amendments to Ontario Regulation 351/12 under the Environmental Protection Act to modernize and streamline permissions for certain waste management systems by moving additional waste types to the existing Environmental Activity and Sector Registry.” Deadline: October 30.
PAGING P.I.s — Proposal: SolGen wants “feedback from security guards and private investigators, agencies, employers, training providers, and associations related to private security, on training for licensure and how it prepares individuals for the industry.” Deadline: October 13.
WELL, WELL, WELL — Proposal: “To implement recent changes to the Oil, Gas and Salt Resources Act to establish a framework for authorizing special projects to test or demonstrate new or innovative activities using certain types of wells. Changes are also proposed to well security exemptions and caps.” Deadline for public feedback: October 16.
PENSION PLAN 2.0 — Proposal: Following an initial consultation on implementing a permanent target benefit framework in Ontario, “a second paper is now posted for consultation, which includes a set of revised proposals and additional details.” Deadline: October 17.
⌛COUNTDOWN: T-minus 19 days until the House reconvenes…5 days to sign up to vote for Liberal leader…87 days until the leadership contest…129 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Kitchener Centre.