On the unofficial campaign trail
Rumours abound
Presented by Ontario’s Universities
ABOVE THE FOLD
In today’s edition: The Premier is back at the podium this morning, where he’ll pump up rural municipalities. Municipalities, meanwhile, are taking their case to the public with new campaign ads. And they’re not the only ones readying for a possible snap vote: all parties are boasting about their cash arsenals, while some public-opinion polls suggest the underdogs are gaining steam. Before we dig in — the rumour mill is in overdrive when it comes to the timing of the next election.
Rumours abound: February 5 is one writ date that’s been floating around out there since last week’s caucus meeting. But so is this coming Wednesday, and the Wednesday after that (elections are called on Wednesdays and held on Thursdays).
Take it with a grain of salt: Until the Lieutenant Governor actually signs off on the writ, these things are hardly certain. And those who actually know when the election will be called tend to keep tight-lipped about it.
Still, Queen’s Park is going full-tilt when it comes to the campaign prep.
Fundraising watch: Mounting a competitive campaign requires cash, so all parties have ramped up their fundraising efforts in recent months. Here’s how they stack up financially.
By the numbers: According to Elections Ontario’s real-time disclosures, the PCs raised $10,745,281 in 2024. Caveat: Their internal tally is likely higher as Elections Ontario doesn’t capture smaller donations under $200.
That’s why the Opposition parties’ internal haul is more than what’s publicly posted — but still nowhere close to what the PCs raked in.
— The NDP say they raised a respectable $2.4 million in Q4 of 2024, and more than $10.4 million since MARIT STILES took the party helm in February 2023.
— The Liberals say they closed out 2024 with $5.4 million in the donation bank, the highest annual tally since 2016, when fundraising rules were tightened up. BONNIE CROMBIE is also hosting another big-ticket fundraiser in March; VIP tickets will set card-carrying Grits back a cool $3,400.
— The Greens pulled in $2 million, the most they’ve raised in a non-election year.
Trump talk: On the eve of DONALD TRUMP’s Inauguration Day, DOUG FORD is leaning into his “Captain Canada” role.
Ford put out a statement saying that while he supports the feds plan for counter tariffs as “the country’s first line of retaliation,” he’s willing to bring in “additional retaliatory measures within provincial jurisdiction that can support escalation over time.”
Stateside: Trade Minister VIC FEDELI and Energy Minister STEPHEN LECCE are headed to Washington to talk about an energy alliance (while Ford maintains that cutting off energy supply to key states is still an option to fight Trump’s tariffs). Ford is scheduled to visit D.C. on February 12 and again on February 20.
Regular readers will know by now: Insiders say the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff threat gives Ford the rationale he needs to justify an early election. Ford himself has intimated that he’ll need a new mandate should Trump follow through — effectively making a multi-billion-dollar stimulus package the ballot-box question.
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HAPPENING TODAY
DOUG FORD’S MONDAY — 9:05 a.m.: The Premier will address the Rural Ontario Municipal Association’s annual conference in Toronto. A bunch of Ministers will also give keynote speeches, including PAUL CALANDRA, LISA THOMPSON, KINGA SURMA and ROB FLACK, then take part in a candid “bear pit” Q-and-A session with local politicians.
3:30 p.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES addresses ROMA. BONNIE CROMBIE and MIKE SCHREINER are up tomorrow. Full agenda.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — Justice Policy continues its controversial study on intimate partner violence with in-camera hearings later this week.
CLIPPINGS
— RIDE THE POLLERCOASTER: Fresh polling from Liaison Strategies suggests the Grits are gaining steam, with 32 per cent support. The PCs are holding steady at 41 per cent, which pollster DAVID VALENTIN says is relatively stagnant given the “significant visibility and attention surrounding Premier DOUG FORD” right now. The NDP is at 19 per cent and the Greens at five per cent. One in four respondents were undecided.
“Interestingly, this growth [for the Liberals] isn’t coming at the expense of the PCs but rather from the smaller parties and the Ontario NDP,” Valentin said.
Mainstreet Research also has the Liberals within 10 points of the PCs.
— AD WATCH: The Association of Municipalities of Ontario has launched a public awareness campaign ahead of a potential snap vote. The non-partisan “Vote like your quality of life depends on it” ads will be splashed across newspapers and social media and focus on three big bugaboos for Ontario’s cities and towns: “curbing reliance on municipal property taxes to fund provincial responsibilities; investing in local infrastructure to build housing; and tackling homelessness.” Details.
— CHEQUE, PLEASE: “The Ford government has begun mailing out $200 rebate cheques, the Ministry of Finance said, with the affordability measure set to arrive in mailboxes ‘over the coming weeks.’” Global News reports.
— DAYCARE DEBACLE: “Ontario's child care centres have lowest rate of participation in $10/day daycare program.” The Star digs in.
CANDIDATE TRACKER
Back to the drawing board: The Liberals are on the hunt for a new candidate in PC-held Dufferin-Caledon after TESS PRENDERGAST, the former NDP contender who hopped over to the Grit ticket, stepped out of the race after her father passed away. Get a running list of candidates so far here.
LOBBY LIST
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations since Friday:
Christopher Froggatt and Dan Mader, Loyalist Public Affairs: Wohler Canada Inc.
Quinn Deasy, GW Group: CNIB Foundation
Patrick Lavelle-Tuns, Endgame Strategies: Emterra Group
Francesca Grosso, Grosso McCarthy: PowerHealth Solutions
Carolyn Kim, Grosso McCarthy: The Plastic Surgery Clinic, MIS Health Resources Inc.
Michael McCarthy, Grosso McCarthy: NorthWest Healthcare Properties Corporation
Ramiro Mora, Massey Advisory Limited: TRIO Fertility
Lee Boswell, Crestview Strategy: NALA
Peter Van Loan, Aird & Berlis: Trojan Gate Developments Ltd.
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Chicken stir-fry with rice and vegetables.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 42 days until the House reconvenes.