Ontario's next election, mapped
Tough nomination battles, closer races for the Grits and Greens, more power to the PCs, and at least two Toronto MPPs would lose their seats
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ABOVE THE FOLD
BOUNDARIES! — With all the snap election rumours swirling around the Pink Palace — and DOUG FORD leaning in to them — I’ve enlisted fellow electoral junkie KYLE HUTTON once again to map out the new federal boundaries on to provincial results to predict how the next vote could go, whenever that may be.
It’s topical: Sources have been musing about an early election in this newsletter for weeks, and now it’s all Queen’s Park circles are buzzing about.
The Premier is dousing gasoline on that chatter, telling any talk radio host who asks to “stay tuned,” and, his latest: That “one hundred per cent we are not having an election this fall, this summer — we’re going to continue making improvements across the province.”
That tracks with what my sources have been saying: If we were to go to the polls ahead of the fixed election date of June 4, 2026 — and that’s a big “if” at this point — it would happen as soon as Spring 2025.
An early election would give Ford an edge — he is riding high in the polls despite a long list of policy backtracks, fresh off back-to-back byelection wins, taking out expensive attack ads against rookie Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE, leaving Oppo rivals in the dust when it comes to fundraising, staring down an unpredictable RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt and, if he waits until 2026, may have to contend with PIERRE POILIEVRE in the Prime Minister’s seat.
But, and it’s a biggie: Justifying an early (and costlier) vote to the public — beyond it being self-serving for the majority-enjoying PCs — would be a challenge.
The new lay of the land: Whenever we do go to the polls, Ontario’s riding map could look a little different. Sources have told me the Ford government is on side with the new federal riding boundaries and the province will follow suit — while keeping the extra seats up North (typically NDP territory). Queen’s Park would still have 124 ridings, versus the 122 seats up for grabs on the Hill.
Timing is hazy. Elections Ontario had asked the government to table legislation this session if it wanted to change the ridings by 2026. That would give the agency enough time to get its logistical ducks in a row. But with just two sitting weeks to go until the summer recess, there’s zilch on the Clerk’s table. And it’s been crickets from Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY’s office.
Still, they could pull it off, even if it is somewhat of a scramble for Elections Ontario.
Or, my winning theory: Ontario could go to the polls early with the current riding map, then do a legislative study to potentially change it after.
There’s a lot of ways this could play out, but one thing is for sure: Based on the 2022 election results and the current standings in the polls, Ford and the PCs would come out on top using the new riding map.
So let’s dig into Hutton’s crystal ball — but first, some caveats: We decided not to include the Northern ridings in this projection because the province has more seats than the feds, which throws off the results big time. And because the 2022 election results heavily favoured the PCs, Hutton’s map is also skewed toward them (which tracks with most public-opinion polls today).
Under the new federal boundaries, the makeup at Queen’s Park doesn’t change much. But there would be some tough nomination battles, closer races for the Grits and Greens, more power to the PCs, and at least two Toronto MPPs who would lose their seats.
Horse race: Under the new map, the PCs would score 85 seats (instead of the 83 they won in 2022), while the NDP would get 30 (down one), with nine for the Grits (one extra), one for the Greens and one Independent.
Who’s out: New Democrat JILL ANDREW, two-term MPP for Toronto-St. Paul’s, would have lost to the Liberals, who dominate the riding federally. Over in Scarborough Centre, PC DAVID SMITH’s spot would also flip for the Liberals.
“They’ve combined Scarborough Centre and Don Valley East,” Hutton said. “That takes out the PC riding, and [Woburn] is now just a Liberal riding with [current rep] ADIL SHAMJI in the lead.”
Who’s in: “Then there’s three pickups for the Conservatives in new seats: York—Durham, Milton East—Halton Hills South, and Brampton—Chinguacousy Park,” Hutton said.
New territory: Some politicians would have to decide where they want to run. Minister CAROLINE MULRONEY’s York-Simcoe riding, for instance, is getting split between York and Durham. Rookie MPP STEVE PINSONNEAULT’s Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is shifting away from Lambton and toward North London, now called Middlesex-London.
Tough nominations: The riding overlap could see sitting caucus mates going toe-to-toe in nomination contests. That includes PCs WILL BOUMA, who currently reps Brantford-Brant, which could change to include Brant South, and DONNA SKELLY, who reps Flamborough-Glanbrook, which would also cover Brant North under the new map.
All in the family: PC Minister MICHAEL FORD, the Premier’s nephew, might be happy to hear that under the new boundaries, he’d have a leg-up over his opponents. The younger Ford, who narrowly won York South-Weston over the incumbent NDP in 2022, would widen his margin by nearly 10 points — thanks in large part that it now encompasses parts of Etobicoke, the heart of Ford Nation.
“So it becomes, not a safe seat by any means, but a much stronger seat for Michael Ford,” Hutton said.
Close races: The Greens would also have a better shot at poaching a third seat. Because the federal map lops off the bottom half of Guelph, Green Leader MIKE SCHREINER’s turf, and put it into the reformed Wellington-Halton Hills North, that’s now their third strongest riding, behind Parry Sound-Muskoka. (The Greens won a second seat in the Kitchener Centre byelection last year, which isn’t captured in these numbers that are based on the 2022 general.)
At this point, there’s no official redistribution plans. That’s something Chief Electoral Officer GREG ESSENSA wants to change, recommending in his annual report that the government bring in a “regularly scheduled process for reviewing the electoral districts and boundaries.” Without it, “Ontarians face a greater risk of ineffective representation.”
Go deeper: Hutton made a handy interactive map with the new boundaries that you can play around with here. Fun fact: Hutton also ran for the Greens in the Milton byelection.
HAPPENING TODAY
DOUG FORD’S THURSDAY — 9 a.m.: The Premier is up in Toronto alongside Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Mayor OLIVIA CHOW, Health Minister SYLVIA JONES, Trade Minister VIC FEDELI and federal Mental Health and Addictions Minister YA’ARA SAKS. Spoiler alert: Trudeau’s itinerary says it’s a biomanufacturing announcement.
9 a.m.: Independent BOBBI ANN BRADY is in the Media Studio to talk about how the Cancer Act only lays out “research and diagnostic testing cancer treatments, not cures or prevention.”
9:30 a.m.: Education Minister STEPHEN LECCE is in Toronto.
11:30 a.m.: Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA addresses the Empire Club of Canada. The theme: “Better, Faster, Safer: Ontario’s Transportation Future.” Invite.
AROUND THE PRECINCT — The Ontario Health Coalition is rallying on the South Lawn, and across the province, to call out hospital ER closures and the Ford government’s moves to further privatize health care. Oppo leaders MARIT STILES and MIKE SCHREINER will be on hand.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 5:30 p.m.: Liberals BONNIE CROMBIE, STEPHEN BLAIS, LUCILLE COLLARD, JOHN FRASER and KAREN McCRIMMON are shilling at Sidedoor Restaurant in the capital for $250 a pop. Invite. 6:30 p.m.: PC Minister MICHAEL FORD (York South-Weston) is fundraising for the Algoma-Manitoulin riding association in Wawa. Tickets go for $250 apiece. RSVP.
Fun fact: Algoma-Manitoulin is held by turfed-NDPer-turned-Independent MICHAEL MANTHA, who just reiterated what he previously told me: He’s running again.
ON THE ORDER PAPER
First up, a rare PMB start to the day: PC RIC BRESEE will move third and final reading of his backbench Bill 99, to establish rules for movable soccer goal posts. It’s named for GARRETT MILLS, a 15-year-old who was killed when an unanchored post tipped over and struck him in the head.
Later on, Bill 188 — the government’s move to beef up child welfare protections — continues to chug through third-reading debate.
On the PMB docket: NDPer JAMIE WEST will put forward his private member’s Bill 118, to proclaim an Injured Workers Day.
WEDNESDAY’S RUNDOWN:
Tabled I: Bill 203, the Keeping Primary Care Fair Act from Liberal ADIL SHAMJI, to ban private-pay nurse practitioner clinics and strengthen penalties for scofflaws.
Tabled II: Bill 202, New Democrat BHUTILA KARPOCHE’s pitch to create a committee to review the UP Express and “make recommendations respecting a plan, a timeline and funding estimates to achieve certain goals.”
Also: Karpoche is pitching another bill to create a Homelessness Task Force.
Off to committee: PC ANDREW DOWIE’s backbench Bill 193 — which would would create a new class of provincial park, the “Urban Class Park”, in order to “improve access to compatible nature-based recreation in or near urban centres — will go under the microscope at the Interior committee after clearing second reading on a voice vote (read: no major opposition).
Killed: NDPer TERESA ARMSTRONG’s Bill 191, to create a child care workforce advisory committee.
QUESTION PERIOD — TRANSCRIPT. CLIP.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
Before we dig into today’s docket, some fireworks from yesterday’s clause-by-clause consideration of the Bill 185, the new housing and red-tape legislation: NDPer JESSICA BELL wasn’t happy about a last-minute PC amendment that would allow landowners, industry and airports to make appeals to the Land Tribunal — while restricting most everyone else.
Today: MARK WHITE, the new chair of the Ontario Energy Board, is in the hot seat to talk about his appointment. Reminder: The committee can’t veto appointments either way, but MPPs can ask appointees how they got their gigs for the public record.
Over at Procedure and House Affairs, it’s another closed-door session.
COCKTAIL CHATTER
Peterborough County is putting on a lunch reception in Room 228.
CLIPPINGS
— HOUSING WOES: According to the budget watchdog, in order to pull off the Ford government’s ambitious 1.5-million homes pledge by the end of 2031, we’d need an average of 38,600 housing starts each quarter — an eye-popping 66 per cent increase from 2021, “and about 4,200 above the highest number of starts ever recorded,” which was 34,400 in 1973. The latest.
— TEACHER PAYOUTS: “Ontario’s English public elementary and high school teachers will receive nearly 12 per cent in wage increases over a four-year contract, an arbitrator ruled on Wednesday.” The Globe has more.
Also on the education front: “Education Minister STEPHEN LECCE is criticizing school boards for suing the companies behind four major social-media platforms, saying they should have acted much sooner to mitigate online harms in the classroom.”
— BOOZE BILL: It’s the Star’s turn to crunch the numbers on the PCs fast-tracked alcohol liberalization, which could cost taxpayers as much as $1 billion. Meanwhile, the Tories are bizarrely bashing Liberal captain BONNIE CROMBIE over the matter, suggesting she wants to tax beer and wine, something the province already does (though it has frozen the beer tax).
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — PROMOTION — JORDAN ADAIR is now deputy director of policy to Public and Business Service Delivery Minister TODD McCARTHY.
AT ELECTIONS ONTARIO — There’s a new chief operating officer: ILONA BOUTROS, who was previously director of election readiness.
FIRST NATIONS RACE — Grassy Narrows Chief RUDY TURTLE announced his candidacy for Ontario Regional Chief ahead of the election in June, in the hopes of replacing current chief GLEN HARE.
STRANGE BEDFELLOWS — Longtime Liberal campaign operative DAVID HERLE has signed on to Rubicon Strategy, the firm headed up by veteran Tory strategist KORY TENEYCKE.
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Davin Shinedling and Michaela Johnson, Jenni Byrne and Associates: Bilt Services
Mike Ceci, Bennett Jones LLP: Mattamy Homes Canada
Vladislav Yakovlyev, Rubicon Strategy: Petal Solutions Inc.
Helene Lavictoire, Lavictoire Consulting: Accenture
Chad Rogers, Crestview Strategy: Intact Financial Corporation, Telesat Canada, CAAT Pension Plan, Live Nation Canada, Inc., Greenbelt Foundation
In-house organizations: Federation of Rental-housing Providers of Ontario — Environmental Defence — Achev.
🍽️ ON THE MENU: It’s Thursday, so — drumroll, please — Fish and Chips is on special in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 14 days until the summer recess…11 days until the Mississauga mayoral election.