Poll watch: PCs sitting pretty
Plus: Elliott and Hillier out, staffing up at Finance, more platform planks, legislative catch-up, campaign chatter, weekend birthdays
ABOVE THE FOLD
Two more bite the dust: Deputy Premier CHRISTINE ELLIOTT and Independent RANDY HILLIER are dropping off the 2022 ticket — but first, there’s fresh polling data from Innovative Research Group’s GREG LYLE.
POLL WATCH — If you missed Sussex Strategy’s election panel yesterday, don’t worry — here are the highlights from Lyle’s latest public-opinion survey.
The upshot: The ruling Tories are in a comfortable lead, with 36 per cent of decided voters saying they’d cast their ballot to re-elect the Ford government. That compares to 30 per cent support for the Grits, 22 per cent for the NDP, and a (relatively higher) nine per cent for the Greens. Three per cent of the electorate would vote for some “other” party.
Folks are willing to give DOUG FORD another shot at the province’s top job, with 32 per cent saying he’s the best choice for Premier, followed by the NDP’s ANDREA HORWATH with 21 per cent. That said, 44 per cent hold an unfavourable impression of Ford, versus 35 per cent who see him in a positive light.
Another promising sign for the PCs: Most Queen’s Park watchers would call 2018 a change election — in which the long-governing Grits were trounced. But according to Lyle, “the desire for change is not as strong as it was in either 2014 or 2018.”
A fly in the ointment: While overall government approval has rebounded since January, more — 52 per cent — say they’re dissatisfied compared to 45 per cent who are A-OK with how the province is being run.
OFF THE TICKET — Longstanding rumours that Health Minister CHRISTINE ELLIOTT won’t seek re-election have come to pass.
Sources confirmed the CBC’s scoop that the high-profile minister and MPP for Newmarket—Aurora will announce her exit from provincial politics today. FORD is expected to name a replacement for her cabinet posts soon after.
Cue speculation that Elliott may make a bid for the federal Tory leadership — the 67-year-old has made three attempts at the provincial PC leadership, narrowly losing to Ford in 2018. Prior to that, she served as the first Patient Ombudsman and as an on-again-off-again MPP for more than a decade.
HILLIER, TOO — Meanwhile, ousted Tory and (unofficial) Ontario First Party leader RANDY HILLIER won’t seek reelection in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston. Hillier made it official in a 20-minute video posted to social media.
It comes after the Legislature unanimously moved a motion barring Hillier from participating in the chamber until he apologized for what House Leader PAUL CALANDRA called inflammatory tweets and racist statements about federal Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA.
DOUG FORD’S THURSDAY — At an unrelated presser in Toronto’s York ‘hood, the Premier got grilled on the controversial departure of all three provincial appointees on the Ottawa Police Services Board, after one was spotted at the so-called freedom rally in the capital.
“There’s approximately 3,500 appointments. Do I have to sign off on it? I do. But do I dig into all 3,500? I don’t…To tell you the truth, I didn’t look into every single detail about that appointment,” Ford said, adding that three “solid” replacements are on the way.
On the hotly-contested plan to deregulate traditional Chinese medicine and acupuncture — a move Liberal captain STEVEN DEL DUCA promised to reverse — Ford said it’s about language barriers.
“There was a tremendous amount of people that were prevented from being a practitioner because they had a language barrier. If they spoke Cantonese or Mandarin they were out of luck,” Ford explained, adding that they “broadly” consulted with the Chinese community for it.
The actual announcement: Ford was in town to announce $1 million for a new mental health rehabilitation facility for first responders coping with post-traumatic stress disorder.
HAPPENING TODAY
— 9:15 a.m.: NDP Leader ANDREA HORWATH is in the capital to call on the Ford government to reimburse workers and businesses that lost income due to the trucker occupation.
— 10 a.m.: A coalition of advocates including Traditional Chinese Medicine Ontario will call on the PCs to scrap Bill 88, which eliminates their regulatory college.
— 10 a.m.: Labour Minister MONTE MCNAUGHTON and Windsor Mayor DREW DILKENS will make an announcement about protections for military reservists.
— 11 a.m.: Seniors Minister RAYMOND CHO and local MPP NATALIA KUSENDOVA make an announcement in Mississauga.
— 11 a.m.: Associate Mental Health Minister MICHAEL TIBOLLO makes an announcement in Sudbury.
— 12 p.m.: The Ontario Nurses’ Association continues to rally against wage-capping Bill 124, this time, outside PC MPP JEREMY ROBERTS’s constit office in Nepean.
THE HOUSE IS OUT — MPPs are back at it Monday morning.
🗳️ CAMPAIGN CHATTER — Catch up on the lay of campaign land in Ontario with pollster ÉRIC GRENIER and I over at The Writ.
MAKING HEADLINES
— PLATFORM PLANKS — From the Grits: “The Ontario Liberal Party has announced an election promise aimed at capitalizing on the Doug Ford government's failure to reach a deal with the federal government on $10 per day child care.” More from the CBC: “Liberal Leader STEVEN DEL DUCA announced Thursday afternoon that parents will receive a rebate averaging $2,750 per child, as compensation for child-care costs” should they form government in June.
Meanwhile, the Greens are all about mental health. “Forget scrapping licence plate fees and losing $1.1 billion a year from the provincial treasury — that money should be spent on mental health.” Details from the Star: “In an election campaign platform that specifically addresses pandemic anxiety, the Greens are promising to cut wait times for children’s services, create a three-digit hotline for mental distress and even boost stress-busting help through more trails and parks. The cost, at $6.6 billion over four years, would be largely funded by reinstating licence plate sticker fees.”
Speaking of, Bill 84 — the eighth red-tape reduction package from the Ford government that eliminates licence plate renewal fees, ends tolls on Highways 412 and 418 and pushes the budget deadline to April 30 — cleared third reading, thanks to the PC majority, and has received Royal Assent.
— IP AGENCY DEBUTS: It’s official. After the Globe got the jump, the government has launched Intellectual Property Ontario — a new agency aimed at encouraging the development, protection and commercialization of IP in the province.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
TRANSITION — LISA OVERHOLT has joined Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY’s office as executive assistant, per the government directory. Overholt previously worked in the Social Services Ministry.
SPOTTED:
Labour Minister MONTE MCNAUGHTON addressing the Canadian Club…Addictions and Mental Health Ontario’s lobby day at Queen’s Park…Another sign that the election is nigh:
QUESTION PERIOD
Debate kicked off with a new number for backlogged surgeries: 250,000 patients are on the waitlist, as opposed to the 58,000 Health Minister CHRISTINE ELLIOTT suggested the day before.
THE HIGHLIGHTS: Clearing the surgery backlog — Handing back vehicle licences that were seizing from occupier truckers — Now-resigned Ottawa Police Services Board’s ROBERT SWAITA’s attendance at the so-called freedom convoy — Protecting land-based casino jobs amid iGaming’s launch — “All talk and no investment” when it comes to connecting everyone to broadband by 2025 — Why scrap the regulatory college for traditional Chinese medicine? — Skyrocketing rents — “Why has this government broken its promise to voters to lower electricity rates?” — Spending $334M of the $600M budgeted for the Ontario Autism Program, per the FAO — More support for Scarborough health care. TRANSCRIPT.
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
— Ralph Palumbo, The Hillcrest Consulting Group: Traditional Chinese Medicine Ontario
— Clare Michaels, Navigator: Ubisoft
— Johnathan Rix, Santis Health: Alpha-1 Antitypsin Deficiency Canada
— John Armstrong, Armstrong Communications: Masonry Works Council of Ontario
— Jennifer Stewart, Syntax Strategic: Microbix Biosystems
— Christopher Chapin, Upstream Strategy Group: Canadian Addiction Treatment Centres LP
— Yash Dogra, NATIONAL Public Relations: U-Battery
In-house organizations: Canadian Federation of Independent Business — Lakehead University — ArcelorMittal Dofasco — TC Energy Corp — Amgen Canada — Enbridge — Canadian National Railway.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: On Saturday: EMILY BEDUZ — who recently exited as the Health Minister’s director of pandemic response and is now manager of federal affairs and public policy at pharmaceutical co. GSK — On Sunday: CODY WELTON, the Premier’s longtime deputy chief of staff on issues management, media relations and Leg affairs.
🍽️ WHAT’S ON THE MENU: Wondering whether to pack a lunch before heading to the Pink Palace? Here’s what the Quorum Cafe is serving up in the basement cafeteria Friday: English-style cod, fries and coleslaw — Mushroom and Swiss smash burger, combo with fries or salad.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 90 days until the Election…61 days until the official start of the 2022 campaign…57 days until the budget is (now legally) due out.