ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Observer — DELEGATES DIVIDED: It’s opening day of the Ontario Liberals’ high-stakes annual general meeting — and fault lines over BONNIE CROMBIE’s leadership are front and centre from the get-go.
I’ve obtained an internal poll of more than 600 delegates that shows the party is deeply divided on Crombie’s future. The survey results were shared with a handful of people outside Mainstreet Research, which conducted the poll, and while Mainstreet did not respond to requests for comment, I’ve verified its authenticity.
By the numbers: Grits are split. Forty-five per cent of respondents want Crombie to remain as leader, while 38 per cent want a new leadership race to replace her. Seventeen per cent are undecided.
Delegates were also asked who they thought was the best option to take on DOUG FORD and the PCs in the next election:
36 per cent: stick with the same leader and same campaign team
17 per cent: hand the reins to NATE ERSKINE-SMITH and his crew
28 per cent: another team altogether
19 per cent: unsure
And when it comes to where OLP should focus its energies ahead of the next election:
Better policy development: 7 per cent
Better comms: 10 per cent
Better organization: 9 per cent
Better candidate recruitment and training: 4 per cent
“All of the above except a new leader”: 30 per cent
“All of the above including a new leader”: 31 per cent
Upshot: Crombie’s crew can’t count this weekend’s review as a sure thing. The leadership review vote could come right down to the wire. It also seems like Team Crombie is fully aware of this: they were making robocalls as recently as last night.
NATE’S SLATE (OR NOT) — NATHANIEL ERSKINE-SMITH, meanwhile, made waves on AGM eve by endorsing a slate of contenders for the Liberal executive team. But some of those NES-backed candidates are politely saying: thanks, but no thanks.
DAVID FARROW, the former Sudbury candidate now running for executive vice president, posted a statement on Facebook declaring he stands “firmly behind” BONNIE CROMBIE and that “now is the time to rally together — not divide.” (Read: a not-so-subtle dig at NES’s tactics.) DOROTHY NORONHA, another former candidate (Northumberland-Peterborough South) in the race for regional VP Central East, doubled down with the exact same statement.
Between the lines: even the folks NES is trying to prop up aren’t eager to fly his flag. But, and it’s a biggie: While many Liberals aren’t happy with what they see as divisive action from NES, his criticism of Crombie’s campaign is resonating — folks may agree with what he’s saying, just not how he’s been saying it.
And about that anti-Crombie flank: remember the New Leaf Liberals? The faction with ties to Team NES hosted a pre-AGM pub night at the Firkin yesterday evening — and reportedly drew less than a dozen people. One insider called the turnout “rather embarrassing.” Another was more blunt: “I think, by the end of the weekend, New Leaf Liberals will be exposed as a group of online bros who should do more ground work than complaining in group chats.” Ouch.
HAPPENING TODAY
3 p.m.: Grits gather at the Sheraton in Toronto to kick off the AGM and leadership review, results for which will be announced Sunday, following a Saturday address from BONNIE CROMBIE. Keynotes include BRIAN GALLANT and BRUCE FANJOY. Teachers’ unions and OREA are among those hosting receptions. Full agenda.
Save the date: Calling all public affairs professionals! The Public Affairs Association of Canada is holding its annual conference November 12 to 13 at the Exchange Hotel in Vancouver. RSVP.
CLIPPINGS
— PROBE, PLEASE: “Ontario’s Auditor General has quietly started a probe into a multi-billion dollar provincial program that writes big cheques to organizations offering to train workers — but couldn’t answer questions about what some of those grants were actually buying. SHELLEY SPENCE’s office confirmed to CTV News that her audit of the training side of the Skills Development Fund is under way.
“But the office didn’t explicitly say when their audit began, or whether it’s related to a pair of grants totalling $11 million that were given to a Toronto-area restaurant chain with ties to the governing PC party.”
That would be Scale Hospitality — the firm linked to embattled former Ford aide AMIN MASSOUDI. NDP critics JAMIE WEST and JEFF BURCH say the money looks more like a “political slush fund” than a workforce strategy, noting Scale’s late application and low score under the Ministry’s own criteria.