SCOOP: The 9:01 Club is growing
Plus: Del Duca's pool subject of new PC attack ad, debate postmortem, mandate letter ruling, poll watch
ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Queen’s Park Observer — FRESH FACES JOIN THE 9:01 CLUB: The knives are out.
After we published our scoop about the 9:01 Club — a grassroots NDP movement that says they’re organizing a push to pressure Leader ANDREA HORWATH to step aside the minute after polls close on June 2, should she fail to secure the premiership — more high-profile NDPers have signed on.
Four current candidates and three former and outgoing MPPs tell me they’ve joined the crew.
Their latest beef with the longtime party captain — who’s making her fourth attempt at forming government as leader: their PC rivals have earned endorsements from three unions (more on that below), which has some in the pro-worker New Democratic party miffed. They also echoed concerns about the handling of candidate controversies and campaign strategies that may be contributing to their less-than-stellar showing in recent polls. Catch up on the drama in our exclusive report.
It’s “now or never” for Horwath, said one candidate. “We’re waiting her out” and “just can’t seem to win with her [as leader],” added another. One source suggested branding T-shirts in preparation for 9:01 p.m. on Election Day, when the pressure will be on if the NDP doesn’t form government.
The party didn’t respond to a request for comment for this story. Horwath previously dismissed questions about the insurgents. “I just encourage all of our NDP candidates, as well as members, to get on board to provide the people of Ontario with hope for the future,” she said last week. “That’s what I’m hearing from people everywhere I go in this province — they want to know that they can have a government that prioritizes them. That’s certainly my goal — and it’s certainly the goal of our candidates.”
SCOOP — AD WATCH: The PC war room is poised to put out a fresh attack ad aimed at Liberal Leader STEVEN DEL DUCA and his infamous swimming pool, Queen’s Park Observer has learned.
It lays out the Del Duca clan’s controversial path to keeping their backyard in-ground pool — something the leader has called “embarrassing.”
To wit: The swimming pool was built too close to protected conservation parkland that’s part of the Humber River watershed. Del Duca failed to get the proper permits, and later asked the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority to hand over the land in exchange for another part of their property. Eventually, the City of Vaughan granted Del Duca the permits he should have initially obtained, after Del Duca provided supportive letters from his neighbours.
Between the lines: Heavy political baggage is not exactly a new line of attack — Del Duca’s opponents often tie him to unpopular Wynne-era decision-making — but this one gets personal.
Speaking of attacks on the Grit captain, Del Duca had some explaining to do after one of his candidates seemed to contradict his pledge to cancel the planned Highway 413.
What happened: JANNAT GAREWAL, who’s running in Brampton East, told Punjabi media last week that Del Duca “doesn’t have any objections” to the controversial highway and “we will definitely build this highway but we need to focus on education.”
The NDP slammed Del Duca, saying “he’s got backroom deals of his own” and “needs to come clean with Ontarians” about his stance.
Del Duca’s defence: “You’re looking at the guy who, when he was minister of transportation, stopped it the first time,” he said when pressed. “This will be one of the first things I do as premier. I will, once and for all, kill Highway 413.”
THE JUICY BITS FROM DEBATE NIGHT: Here’s what you need to know about last night’s debate that pit PC DOUG FORD, NDPer ANDREA HORWATH, Liberal STEVEN DEL DUCA and the Greens’ MIKE SCHREINER against each other.
— Hot exchanges: The leaders sparred over Ford’s handling of the pandemic, the proposed Highway 413, affordability, education and climate change.
Ford was forced to acknowledge his pandemic-era mistakes during a back-and-forth with Del Duca, who had pointed out he reopened last winter despite warnings from the Science Table.
“Did we get everything right? No, we didn’t get everything right, but I’ll tell you every decision I made was with the best intention, with the best medical advice I could get at the time,” Ford said.
That could work in Ford’s favour. Despite the pandemic not being front and centre during the campaign, anecdotally, voters have told me that they’re willing to forgive the Premier’s handling of it, saying “he did his best.”
Del Duca was forced to fact-check Ford on the fly, saying the latter’s claims that the Liberals would kill moves to scrap licence-plate fees and the temporarily cut the gas tax are “fiction.”
Ford took every opportunity to bring up the fact that three unions have endorsed the PCs — including those representing boilermakers, construction and electric workers — suggesting Horwath and the NDP are “out of touch” with organized labour.
Horwath, meanwhile, took aim at Del Duca almost as much as Ford, as the pair jockey for second place, per the polls. “You had 15 years to do all those things and you didn’t,” she said as he rattled off a list of promises. To which Del Duca fired back: Every time you attack me…Ford smiles.”
— Hotter takes: Ford refused to take the bait and stayed on message — performing in a way that many in the PC camp wanted him to. “Nothing tonight changed the trajectory of the election,” one Tory insider texted. “Ford was the target and weathered the storm just fine. Never lost his cool and got his message out.”
But “is that what Ford Nation wants? They’re scrappers,” mused one analyst. At certain points, Ford seemed “shaky” and “incoherent,” but he generally performed OK, said another.
Schreiner — on the provincewide debate stage for the first time — was the only one who managed to get under Ford’s skin, which actually earned him high praise (though he may not have wanted it): “I can work with Mr. Schreiner,” Ford said. “I just wish you could rub off on your other two colleagues.”
Added a rival strategist: “Schreiner outperformed expectations. Looked calm and reasonable.”
Horwath, according to one NDP insider, “didn’t have any big breakthrough moments, but in a debate with lots of suits and ties, she showed she’s the one with the experience, plan and full slate of candidates to fix the things Ford made worse.”
Del Duca got mixed reviews. Some Grits were happy that he didn’t get overtly defensive when his opponents connected him to past Liberal governments as he tries to rebrand himself and the party. “If all people remember about Del Duca is that he has two girls and they go to public school, that’s fine,” said one Liberal operative.
Others weren’t so impressed. His “one and only job was to show he’s nothing like the charismatic former Liberal leader KATHLEEN WYNNE — and he pulled it off.”
— No regrets: Asked to name a political decision they wish they’d done differently, Schreiner said he would have run in his current riding of Guelph the first time. Ford echoed the sentiment, saying he wished he’d run four years earlier. Del Duca acknowledged the Liberals should have done a better job of listening to voters. Horwath didn’t give a straight answer, saying she sees only “learning opportunities.”
Key words to check off on your debate bingo card (or to take a swig at for your drinking game): Horwath took every opportunity to mention Ford’s “buddies.” Ford tied Del Duca to the former Grit government, often invoking “Wynne.” Del Duca pointed out Ford relied on a cheat-sheet binder, which Ford later defended in post-debate scrums — something he didn’t take part in after the Northern debate.
“Doug literally reading at the education section” of the debate — “so bad,” one Grit quipped. One NDPer saw it differently: “Normal people don’t care.”
HAPPENING TODAY
WHERE THE LEADERS ARE AT — 8:15 a.m.: Del Duca hosts a post-debate breakfast rally with supporters in Ford’s home riding of Etobicoke North. He then makes an announcement about improving work-life balance at 11:30 a.m.
— 9 a.m.: Horwath’s bus rolls into Scarborough—Rouge Park for an announcement about fixing schools, then heads to Peterborough—Kawartha to talk mental health supports for students. Later, she’ll host a meet-and-greet in Kingston and the Islands.
— 9 a.m.: Schreiner is shoring up support in University—Rosedale and Parry Sound—Muskoka (which is sans a Grit candidate).
— 10 a.m.: Ford is in York Centre for another announcement about — you guessed it — “getting it done.”
POLL WATCH
On debate day, Abacus Data had the PCs in a comfortable lead, backed by 35 per cent of decided voters. The Grits turned up 28 per cent while the NDP earned 24 per cent support. The Greens are holding steady at 5 per cent while other parties nabbed 7 per cent of the vote.
As for best premier: Thirty-four per cent picked Ford as their number one choice for the province’s top job, while 20 per cent sided with Horwath, 15 per cent preferred Del Duca, and 3 per cent wanted Schreiner. It still feels like anyone’s game: another 29 per cent said they’re unsure.
That said: “Since the start of the campaign, Doug Ford’s negatives are up 6-points to 44 per cent while those with a positive view are down 5 to 33 per cent. This is a significant shift over the past week,” the pollster says. “But despite this shift in views towards Mr. Ford, Ms. Horwath and Mr. Del Duca have seen little change in their own views and Mr. Ford remains the most popular leader in the province.” Full survey.
MAKING HEADLINES
— COURTROOM CURVEBALL: Smack dab in the middle of the campaign, the Supreme Court is set to revive a pair of Ford’s courtroom controversies. The country’s top court will decide whether to take on the appeals related to revealing confidential ministerial mandate letters as well as ex-OPP head BRAD BLAIR’s defamation case.
— PANDEMIC TRACKER: Ontario reported two new Covid deaths on Monday, as ICU hospitalizations crept upward to 159 — eight more than Sunday’s five-month low. Details.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: PC candidate PARM GILL (Milton)…MICHAEL DIAMOND, Tory operative and lobbyist…JONATHAN RICCI, ex-PC staffer, now coordinator of stakeholder relations for the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 16 days until the Election.