Team Ford is poring over his 1990 early election post-mortem. Here's his advice.
Dan Rath dishes
ABOVE THE FOLD
Q+A — More than thirty years after DAN RATH co-wrote Not Without Cause — the 1990 post-mortem on then-Liberal Premier DAVID PETERSON’s early election gamble — DOUG FORD’s war room is reportedly dusting off their copies, parsing for clues on how not to repeat the same fatal mistakes.
As the rumour mill churns out more hints of a snap election in Ontario, I called up the former Liberal aide to find out about the parallels between then and now, and the risks of going early today.
Here, we talk about why Rath thinks the NDP is a “dark horse,” his advice for the Grits to claw their way back from political oblivion (“invent a time machine”), the dangers if the Tories were to pull the trigger early (“unintended consequences”) and lessons for all politicos (don’t get cocky!).
Decades later, a bunch of PC operatives are reading Not Without Cause. What do you think about that? I know Tory staffers and campaign operatives are poring over NWC to figure out how, if Ford goes early, he can avoid the same fate as DAVID PETERSON. Some of them approach it thinking, “We need to make sure we’re not as dumb as these people were.” But the advisers and deep thinkers around Peterson were the best of the best of their era who would more than hold their own against today’s crop.
In the fog of a campaign, now as then, mistakes are always going to be made no matter how well prepared you are. You can’t anticipate everything. Smart political people will read the book, understand that, and be humbled — not imagine themselves to be bulletproof.
What’s the key lesson of NWC? The crucial lesson of NWC regarding an early election call is to have a reason for going that regular people understand and accept. In Ford's case, that means articulating a reason that resonates beyond the base of Ontario PC core voters and well into the universe of potential switchers who do not rule out voting for another party.
Another is to not allow yourself to become insulated by people who tell you what you want to hear, and to make the mistake of not listening to people who have their ears in the trenches and who have a keen ear for what people are actually thinking.
What’s the big difference between the state of Ontario politics in 1989 and in 2024? The credibility and the viability of alternatives for voters. In 1990, the NDP led by BOB RAE got a lot of credit, quietly, for some of the progressive changes that the Peterson government brought in from ‘85 to ‘90. So it’s everything from ending extra billing by doctors to completing the full funding of Catholic education — these big, societal level changes were brought in. And after five years of government, Peterson was not getting full credit. Quietly, Rae got far more credit than people realized, and that pollsters and pundits and strategists suggested — so that set Rae up to get the support he ended up getting, surprising just about everybody in 1990.
Today, the Opposition parties seem to have a tough time getting their message out there. How does it compare? Now, you have a very different situation. In the case of the Liberals, you have a leader [BONNIE CROMBIE] who has never seen the floor of the Legislature, who’s never sat as MPP, who’s never been proved in that context as an effective leader. In the NDP, you have a leader [MARIT STILES] who is somewhat better known, but again, who has a small caucus and has never been in a position to implement policies. So, I think the key contextual difference in 2024 is the Opposition is much less well-positioned to be seen as a credible alternative.
My sense is, if DOUG FORD were to go early, the greatest potential beneficiary of that would be the NDP and MARIT STILES.
So, you’re saying an early election would be the worst-case scenario particularly for Crombie and the Grits? Yes, particularly given the broader environment of antipathy toward the Liberals at the federal level, which is definitely going to have consequences for the party provincially. [More on that momentarily.] It’s part of an overall weakening of the Liberal brand.
What advice would you give the Liberals to mount a comeback? First they need to invent a functioning time machine so they can go back to 2020 and erase STEVEN DEL DUCA and his legacy. Del Duca was the worst possible choice for the Liberals, and the correct choice would have been MICHAEL COTEAU. Coteau was a fantastically appealing, intuitive retail politician. He was the perfect guy to lead the Liberals four years ago. Well, there’s no need to revisit what happened. The party was obliterated again.
What does Crombie need to do to? Get a seat. Get into a situation where you can credibly raise profile and fill this vacuum of information about you that is essentially everywhere in the province, except perhaps in and around Mississauga. And create a substantive differentiation between you and Ford.
I know he’s a different political stripe, but if you were advising the Premier on the possibility of an early election, what would you do differently? I’m sure that the people around him are telling him it’s all about having a reason for going, and it has to be a reason that retails well. People would go: “That makes sense to me. I’ll come back down from the cottage or I’ll go over to the polling station and actually take time out to support this guy, because what he’s doing matters to me.” In 1990, Peterson was never able to say that, and that’s why he was punished by people.
New Democrats tend to get left out of these conversations because of Ontario’s history going back and forth with only Liberal and PC governments (except, of course, that one time you wrote about). Sounds like you think it’s a mistake to underestimate them? The dark horse here is the provincial NDP. And you might think that they’re limited, or they’ve got this federal burden that’s always going to hold them back. But one thing the Tories and Doug Ford need to think about is the extent to which his desire to secure his position could result in exactly the type of surprise ending that Peterson encountered in 1990 — which is that you strengthen the NDP.
Go on. Especially if Canadians and Ontarians are going to get rid of the Liberals federally and give the nod to PIERRE POILIEVRE and the Conservatives for four years, what is the best way to protect and preserve what we care about in Ontario? Health care, education, social programs — all aspects of the social contract that we control provincially. Who would Ontarians be most likely to turn to?
It all chips into a scenario in which there could be unintended consequences — and perhaps very dramatic ones — for Ford and the PCs if they decide to go early in order to protect and preserve their mandate for their core.
The bottom line? This was a story about people not seeing through to the ultimate consequences of their choices and their decisions, and having too much faith in their own ability to prevail, no matter what the circumstances were.
So if there is a parallel: Nothing stuck to the guy who everybody was prepared to believe had good intentions for the province, for them, for their families. You can see that part of the history and the legend of Ford, particularly with his core, but not limited to his core.
On a personal note, I know countless at Queen’s Park, myself included, who say yours is one of the best books ever written about provincial politics and it inspired them to get involved. How does that feel? It has enduring lessons, but NWC is also holding up as an incredibly entertaining political story, and also an inspiring one. I understand that over the last 32 years, reading it has inspired many people to get into politics, journalism, polling, advocacy and other activities in the public sphere. It’s proving to have a lasting impact, and my co-author GEORGETTE GAGNON and I find that very rewarding.
This interview was lightly edited for clarity and length.
HAPPENING TODAY
OPPO ITIN — NDP Leader MARIT STILES is on the final leg of her Windsor-Essex tour, including stops at the Ford City Community Gardens, the villages in the Carrousel of Nations and to meet with community leaders.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6 p.m.: PC DAVE SMITH is hosting a night at the races for $150 apiece. Invite. At 6:30 p.m.: Mingle with Minister RAYMOND CHO for $388. RSVP.
On Saturday — 5:30 p.m.: Liberals BONNIE CROMBIE, TED HSU and MARY-MARGARET McMAHON are shilling in Collingwood. Tickets go for $175 a pop.
HAPPENING WEDNESDAY — 11 a.m.: Ontario Ombudsman PAUL DUBÉ releases his annual report on June 26.
CLIPPINGS
— TRADE WARS: “Premier DOUG FORD is calling for the federal government to immediately bring in tariffs that match or exceed those recently imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports, including a 100-per-cent tariff on electric vehicles.” More from the Globe and Mail.
— CASH AND CANDIDATES: Global follows our scoop about the Liberals looking to nominate half their 124-large slate by September.
More juicy tidbits: BONNIE CROMBIE “said she ‘very well may be’ one of the 60 candidates who have identified a riding to run in by the fall and is looking ‘very closely at two or three ridings in Mississauga.’”
“The Liberals are planning a fundraising dinner in December that is projected to raise millions of dollars from supporters. ‘Certainly two, three million would be ideal,’ Crombie told Global News.”
Meanwhile: A little birdie tells me the Grits have enlisted KAREN MILLER to handle fundraising. It’s not Miller’s first rodeo: She previously did fundraising for Toronto contenders ANA BAILAO and JOHN TORY.
Slim pickin’s: Veteran MPP and two-time interim leader JOHN FRASER (Ottawa South) became the first official candidate last night. The small crowd drew titters.
About last night: Meanwhile, the PCs held their $1,000-a-head summer kickoff headlined by Premier DOUG FORD at Rebel nightclub, which has a capacity of 3,700. It sold out.
— NOT-SO-ROSY: Via CBC: “TD’s new economic forecast for Ontario: ‘Homebuilding has careened lower...plunge in multi-family construction. We see little to meaningfully turn this trend around, as housing pre-sales in key markets like Toronto are depressed and input costs are high.”
Speaking of housing, the province and feds are on good terms again when it comes to affordable housing cash: “$8.1 million to help tackle the housing crisis in Simcoe County.”
SPOTTED:
Ontario’s Champions of Diversity awarded…Another worthy politico pup for our (very informal) Cutest at Queen’s Park competition: RIOT DOGNATO-WOOFER CHOMPIN, a regular guest in NDPer KRISTYN WONG-TAM’s office and an emotional support animal to caucus staff…
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Sam Galea, McMillan Vantage: Vision Group Canada
Davin Shinedling, Jenni Byrne + Associates: Stewart Title
Liam Thompson and Fraser Macdonald, StrategyCorp: Association of Canadian Search, Employment and Staffing Services
Kelly Baker and Danya Vered, StrategyCorp: A Way Home Canada
Larry Hope, Larry Hope Consulting: Nelson Education Limited
In-house organizations: OSSTF — Lakehead University — The Investment Funds Institute of Canada.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Liberal MP and ex-MPP MICHAEL COTEAU.
🍽️ ON THE MENU: Root vegetable goulash with egg noodles is on tap in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 122 days until the House reconvenes…24 days until the all-Premier’s Council of the Federation summer meeting.