Top 10 closest races
Plus: Candidate drama, streeters with voters, promise tracker, where the leaders are at
ABOVE THE FOLD
BATTLEGROUND WATCH — Party leaders hit the hustings hard during week one of the campaign — and their preferred pit stops shed some light on the regions they’re gunning for most.
Hot spots: PC captain DOUG FORD kicked off the race in vote-rich Brampton, which, along with the rest of the 905, can make or break majority governments.
— ANDREA HORWATH flexed her party’s strategy to target non-NDP seats, hitting up PC-held Pickering—Uxbridge and forcing Ford to play defence there the next day.
— Grit captain STEVEN DEL DUCA glad-handed around his opponent’s turf in Etobicoke and Hamilton.
— Green MIKE SCHREINER has been pooling resources in Guelph, with an eye to holding on to his seat, while touring his electric vehicle convoy around Toronto and Caledon.
Closest races, circa 2018: We’ve rounded up the Top 10 closest races from four years ago, which may offer a hint at where else the leaders will target their campaigns.
Scarborough—Guildwood: Liberal MITZIE HUNTER narrowly held on to her seat with 74 votes over the PC runner-up.
Thunder Bay—Atikokan: NDPer JUDITH MONTEITH-FARRELL wrested the seat from longtime Grit BILL MAURO with 81 ballots.
Brampton Centre: Naturally, the 905 earned a couple spots on this list. The closest regional race saw NDP co-deputy leader SARA SINGH take a victory with 89 votes over her PC competitor.
Ottawa West—Nepean: Rookie PC JEREMY ROBERTS took the capital, earning 175 ballots more than the second-place NDPer.
Don Valley West: It’s arguably a tighter race this time around now that veteran incumbent KATHLEEN WYNNE is hanging up her hat, and the Grits’ STEPHANIE BOWMAN is facing off with higher-profile contenders including ex-provincial child advocate IRWIN ELMAN for the NDP and ex-Toronto police chief MARK SAUNDERS for the PCs. Wynne kept her seat with 181 votes over the Tories.
Sault Ste. Marie: ROSS ROMANO held on to the riding for the PCs, winning 414 votes more than the New Democrats.
Brampton West: Another hotly-contested race in the 905, with PCer AMARJOT SANDHU securing 490 votes over the NDP.
Brampton North: Now-Independent KEVIN YARDE — who lost a rare NDP nomination challenge — came out on top the riding in 2018 with 497 more votes than the PCs.
Brantford—Brant: PC WILL BOUMA took the seat with 635 ballots over the second-place NDP.
Kitchener—Conestoga: Tory MIKE HARRIS JR. won by 686 votes, followed by the NDP.
WHERE THE LEADERS ARE AT ON DAY 4 — Ford headed to the Sault to re-iterate the PCs plans to cough up $1 billion to open up roads to the Ring of Fire.
— Horwath followed in Ford’s footsteps to Bowmanville, where she announced plans to lower utility bills and reduce emissions by bringing in an energy-efficient building retrofit program that would provide grants up to $11,000.
— Del Duca’s itinerary includes a platform announcement in Ottawa — where he announced mandatory anti-Covid shots for students, adding it to the list of required vaccines. He then stops in Kingston and Scarborough.
— Schreiner presses the flesh in Guelph, hitting up the Farmers’ Market and the Guelph Home Builders Association gala.
MAKING HEADLINES
— CANDIDATE DRAMA: NDP candidate LISE VAUGEOIS (Thunder Bay-Superior North) “has filed a complaint against Toronto Sun columnist BRIAN LILLEY [for] accusing her of questioning the value of Canada’s national anthem…Lilley, in a brief column published on Thursday, said Vaugeois ‘doesn’t think too much of O Canada and worries about the impact of Remembrance Day…The NDP and Vaugeois accused Lilley of an intentionally misleading column stating the opposite of Vaugeois’ true feelings.” TBSNewswatch has the details.
Meanwhile, the NDP pointed out that the PC candidate in Durham TODD MCCARTHY was asked by so-con group Campaign Life whether he believes there are any circumstances under which “a woman should have access to abortion?” and he said “no.”
Over in Etobicoke Centre, the PCs noted that Liberal contender NOEL SEMPLE suggested in a 10-year-old tweet that “buy local” is for “xenophobes.” The dirt.
— PROMISE TRACKER: The Canadian Press has a handy round-up of platform planks from all parties. The latest:
“Progressive Conservatives: Expand GO train service to Bowmanville…
NDP: Build 1.5 million homes in 10 years with a mix of starter homes, rental homes and affordable housing. Build at least 250,000 affordable and non-market rental homes operated by public, non-profit and co-op housing providers. Bring back real rent control and scrap vacancy decontrol. Mandate universal design for accessibility. Allow first-time buyers with household incomes under $200,000 to access home equity loans of up to 10 per cent of the purchase price to help with their down payment…Expand Peel Memorial Hospital to include a 24-hour emergency department, build a new full-service hospital and establish a dedicated cancer centre…
Liberals: Reintroduce an optional Grade 13. Hire 1,000 more mental health professionals for students and staff. Hire 5,000 more special education workers. Expand the Student Nutrition Program. End EQAO tests and replace them with a new assessment strategy.”
SPOTTED:
Not quite Ontario News Now, but the PCs mock news reporting team back on the beat…The top nickname for the Grits campaign mini-bus: “Mystery Machine”…Global News streeters with voters who had a tricky time identifying all party leaders except Ford, and to a lesser extent, Horwath:
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 26 days until Election Day…5 days until candidate nominations close…9 days until the province-wide leaders’ debate…3 days until the Northern-themed debate.