Trudeau's chaos is Ford's pre-election opportunity
Fine print for Peel's split, civic codes of conduct and more
ABOVE THE FOLD
As political shockwaves ripple through Ottawa, Premier DOUG FORD is pumping himself up as the steady hand who will steer the country through the uncertainty of a DONALD TRUMP presidency. Naturally, that is playing into buzz about the timing of a provincial election.
Backed up by his fellow first ministers at the Council of the Federation meeting that was rocked by CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s explosive exit from JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s cabinet, Ford said it’s “chaos right now up in Ottawa” but Canada has to “project strength and unity” in the face of a 25-per-cent tariff threat. Meanwhile, the circus in Ottawa has already made it on to Trump’s radar.
Ford spoke with Freeland amid the drama and put her on speakerphone so the other Premiers could hear. Ford and Freeland have been good pals over the years — Freeland referred to Ford as her therapist during Covid. Ford thanked Freeland for her service and wished her the best.
Team Canada: While the Premiers had differed in their approaches to dealing with Trump — Ford prefers the hawkish route, others want a diplomatic approach — they were all on the same page at their closing press conference. Alberta’s DANIELLE SMITH said Ford has been “tremendous in pulling us together.” New Brunswick’s SUSAN HOLT gave him props for inviting the Business Council of Canada to address the Premiers about the impact of tariffs.
Washington whisperers: They also got a two-hour briefing from ex-ambassadors to Washington DAVID McNAUGHTON, GARY DOER and FRANK McKENNA.
What it all means for Ontario: Freeland’s exit and the ensuing hullaballoo is raising questions about the timing of the next federal election — and of course, that is fuelling speculation about the timing of a provincial election.
Timing is everything: Calling an election now would be most advantageous for Ford, who is riding high in the polls. Insiders say Ford should pull the trigger before the feds because, if Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE takes the Prime Minister’s seat, there could be cuts coming that Ford would not want to wear at the provincial level. Not to mention, Poilievre is sucking up precious Tory resources like canvassers. Plus, Ontario tends to elect opposites to Queen’s Park and the Hill.
Now that the situation is even more volatile in Ottawa, Ford may be feeling the pressure to get out ahead of a federal vote.
Cue the eyes emoji: Federal NDP House Leader PETER JULIAN told VASSY KAPELOS on CTV’s Power Play last night that they would vote against the minority Liberals in late February or early March if Trudeau is still around, triggering an election.
Trump card: Insiders have also said the uncertainty of Trump’s presidency provides Ford the rationale he needs to call a snap vote. So, presenting himself as a stable leader who will guide the province through rough economic waters and who isn’t afraid to go toe-to-toe with Trump — someone he’s dealt with before, unlike the NDP’s MARIT STILES and the Liberals’ BONNIE CROMBIE — would play well with the electorate come voting time.
It also doesn’t hurt that all this Trump talk is shifting the focus away from Ford’s own domestic woes, like the ongoing RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt affair.
Our man in Washington: Ford also said he’s headed to D.C. in February, while the House returns two weeks later than scheduled on March 3. That’s sparked chatter about the possibility of a February or March election.
And the rest: Amid the drama, the Premiers managed to also discuss energy security and health care, particularly timely access to treatment and medications. Ford said the Health Ministers would have more to say about approval timelines soon. Official word.
HAPPENING TODAY
8:30 a.m.: Financial Accountability Officer JEFFREY NOVAK will release a report on the state of school buildings in Ontario.
Teaser: It reviews “building condition and the state of good repair. The report also compares student enrolment and school capacity to examine the number of schools that are under and over capacity. Finally, the report provides an estimate of the cost to maintain school buildings in a state of good repair and to address capacity pressures over the next 10 years, with a comparison of the FAO’s cost estimate to the amount of funding included in the 2024 Ontario Budget.”
9 a.m.: Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA is in Bradford West Gwillimbury alongside Mayor JAMES LEDUC.
11 a.m.: Health Minister SYLVIA JONES is up in Oro-Medonte.
CLIPPINGS
— FORD’S BACK: MICHAEL FORD has returned to his gig as Multiculturalism and Citizenship Minister after taking a hiatus for health reasons. Ford reps York South-Weston, a battleground riding he narrowly won in 2022. The next election will be a re-match between Ford and the former NDP MPP for the riding FAISAL HASSAN. Had the government adopted the new federal boundaries in time, it could have been a stronger win for the PCs, according to electoral cartographer and Green candidate KYLE HUTTON, who mapped that out for us.
— FES, TOO: Lost in the chaos on the Hill was the fact that the Fall Economic Statement was (eventually) tabled, boasting an eye-popping $62-billion deficit and details of the $1-billion border security plan. CBC reports.
— METIS MELEE: A “controversial bill that would recognize Métis governments is ‘not moving forward,’ the feds say.” Via CBC.
— IMMIGRATION NATION: “As the federal government looks to drastically reduce its immigration targets over the next few years, the mayors of northern Ontario’s largest cities say they need more immigrants to sustain local economies and population.” CP has the story.
— ON THE BENCH: Four new judges have been appointed in Ontario. Who’s who.
REGULATORY ROUNDUP
Every Tuesday, we sum up the government’s latest proposals on the Regulatory Registry — where the nitty-gritty of policymaking is hammered out.
This week it’s all about the fine print for the municipally-minded bills that Housing Minister PAUL CALANDRA tabled on the last sitting day, and more:
TARION TWEAKS — The proposal: “Changes to deposit protection policy to ensure protection for future new home purchasers and help combat illegal vending of new homes.” Deadline for public feedback: January 15.
CONSUMER PROTECTION — Proposal: “Consulting on the first phase of draft regulatory proposals that are required to bring the new Consumer Protection Act into force.” That would be Bill 142, the Better for Consumers, Better for Businesses Act circa 2023. Deadline: February 10.
PEEL SPLIT — Proposal: “To transform the delivery of certain public works services in the Regional Municipality of Peel…[and] to add two new Deputy Facilitator positions to the Provincial Land and Development Facilitator advisory agency.” Deadline: January 26.
TENT TAKEDOWN — Proposal: “To direct individuals to stop using illegal drugs or to leave the public space. If an individual does not comply, officers will be able to issue a ticket and/or arrest individuals.” Deadline: January 13.
CIVIC CODE OF CONDUCT — Proposal: “Require municipalities to establish codes of conduct that apply to members of council and certain local boards.” Deadline: February 10.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 76 days until the House reconvenes.