What a federal election means for Ontario
The vote-rich province can make or break governments. Here's how it could play out.
In this edition: Political pros weigh in on the next vote — the upshot of new Covid outbreak rules — disappearing fundraisers — exit interview with MICHAEL COTEAU — controversial candidates, and more.
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Good Thursday morning. This is Queen’s Park Observer.
ABOVE THE FOLD
With a federal election call in the offing, I asked people in the know what they think it means for Ontario — a vote-rich province with 121 out of 338 seats up for grabs that can make or break governments.
Will the Underhill theory hold, and see Ontarians balancing a Liberal government on Parliament Hill with Conservatives at Queen’s Park in 2022? Will Premier DOUG FORD be on the stump or on the sidelines, in a repeat of 2019?
Political experts weigh in:
— ÉRIC GRENIER, who writes about elections at The Writ:
“Ontario is key for every party in this election, and not just because it has the most seats. The Liberals were only a few seats short of a majority government in 2019 and there are a few seats they could gain in Ontario — mostly from the Conservatives, but also the NDP — to get them there this time. But they also need to play defense, as they ran the table in Toronto and most of the suburbs around the city. They can’t afford to give up any of those ridings.
“For the Conservatives, Ontario is make-or-break for them…[Leader] ERIN O’TOOLE will need to put in a lot of effort in the GTA.
“The New Democrats are polling strongest in both Ontario and B.C., so the NDP is looking to make some gains in Ontario, particularly in Toronto and northern Ontario.”
“For the Greens the only thing that might save ANNAMIE PAUL’s leadership is if she can finally score a breakthrough for the party in Ontario. She is probably not going to spend much time outside of the GTA, so all eyes will be on her campaign to win Toronto Centre, and perhaps score an upset in Kitchener and also Guelph, to build upon MIKE SCHREINER’s success there.”
— JAMIE ELLERTON, principal at Conaptus Public Relations and former Parliament Hill and Queen’s Park staffer:
“Expect Ford and the PC government to be fairly absent from the federal campaign trail. Local-level partisans will help the federal party and Ministers have been helping fundraise for federal candidates. Ford’s strategy is to be seen as the only electorally viable ‘conservative’ in Ontario.
“It's unlikely you'll hear JUSTIN TRUDEAU talk much about them, but expect STEVEN DEL DUCA and his team to be out aggressively pitching in on local Liberal campaigns as they refresh internal volunteer lists and try to grow the party back into a respectable political force.”
— SCOTT REID, principal at Feschuk.Reid and ex-director of communications for former PM PAUL MARTIN:
“Every minute Del Duca can spend on a stage with Trudeau is worth its weight in gold…Same goes for ANDREA HORWATH, although one wonders if she might bristle at playing second fiddle to her former deputy JAGMEET SINGH…Singh has a personal appeal to voters that she has never managed to conjure. She can only stand to benefit from being photographed next to him.
“Ford has the most at risk. If O’Toole face plants, people will start to ask what’s wrong with modern Conservatives at a fundamental level…If O’Toole over-performs, it’s obviously better…But I bet, in their heart of hearts, Queen’s Park Conservatives wish this federal campaign was happening in 2023, not 2021.”
— TOM PARKIN, political commentator with a social democratic perspective who has worked with the NDP in Ontario:
“Jagmeet Singh is Canada’s most popular federal leader, so NDP provincial politicians across Canada will be eager to campaign with him. There’s no doubt Andrea and Jagmeet will campaign together. And Andrea Horwath’s help will be very valuable to Singh because he wants to build off Horwath’s 40 seats.”
— JOHN O’LEARY, senior consultant with Crestview Strategy, who was a policy adviser to then-premier DALTON MCGUINTY and a member of the 2019 federal Liberal campaign team:
“The relationship to watch is between Ford and Erin O’Toole. Ford and his advisers will know O’Toole enters the campaign with low popularity and a party struggling with internal divisions and criticism of his leadership. Will Ford embrace O’Toole and commit his provincial machine to help the federal Tories, or will we see the Premier offer perfunctory support and refrain from actively campaigning on O’Toole’s behalf?
“If Justin Trudeau is likely to return as Prime Minister, Ford might be cognizant of maintaining a working relationship with a government in Ottawa.
“If the NDP federally has a strong showing and picks up seats in Ontario, Andrea Horwath will be under pressure and higher expectations to do the same.”
— ADAM YAHN, senior consultant at Summa Strategies who’s worked in provincial and federal politics:
“Voters tend to ignore opposition leaders in-between elections and it is particularly difficult to gain profile outside of a campaign. Steven Del Duca’s team will likely have him shadowing the Prime Minister at every stop in Ontario and helping federal Liberal candidates in their target seats for 2022 trying to build some brand recognition.
“I anticipate that Premier Ford’s team will take the opposite approach — keep their head down and focused on Ontario. There is still a lot of work to do, including charting out the recovery while responding to a possible fourth wave.”
— An unnamed federal Tory candidate:
“I certainly don’t think they’re going to bring in JASON [KENNEY]. It’s a very different field. In 2019, Ford was much more unpopular — at the doors, we heard nothing but Ford stuff, and now, we’re not really hearing that at all.”
NEW RULES FOR DEALING WITH COVID OUTBREAKS
— THE UPSHOT: There are more benefits to being vaccinated, as the latest guidance lays out fewer restriction compared to the jab-less.
People who have been exposed to Covid and aren’t double-dosed will have to self-isolate for 10 days and take a Covid test, even if it comes back negative. Fully vaccinated folks experiencing symptoms have to isolate and get swabbed, but if the test is negative, they can go about their lives once their symptoms have improved for at least 24 hours. A handy flowchart.
— IN SCHOOLS: Different rules for the vaccinated versus unvaccinated, generally mirroring the rules for post-exposure isolation. Local public health units can also make their own tweaks to the rules.
It’s “a balanced and cautious approach,” said ALEXANDRA HILKENE, spokesperson for Health Minister CHRISTINE ELLIOTT.
The new guidance was released against the backdrop of rising infections and the fact that kids under 12 aren’t eligible for a shot.
— OPPO REACTS: The rules failed to check off all the boxes for NDP Education critic MARIT STILES, who said that “while these guidelines recognize the effectiveness of vaccination,” crucial protections such as mandatory shots for teachers and staff and smaller class sizes are needed. Without them, “we risk looking at another school year of outbreaks and disruptions.”
DOUG FORD’S WEDNESDAY: The Premier was at a groundbreaking “beam-signing” ceremony for the West Park Health Care Centre in Toronto. The hospital is expected to open in 2023.
HAPPENING TODAY
Let’s get fiscal — at 9 a.m.: Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY releases Ontario’s first-quarter finances report and the latest economic outlook.
— 10:15 a.m.: NDP Leader ANDREA HORWATH is spending the day in Cambridge, kicking off with a press conference to call for a safe back-to-school plan, which includes paid sick days for parents and education workers. Also in tow: CATHERINE FIFE (Waterloo) and local candidate MARJORIE KNIGHT.
— 1 p.m.: Green Leader MIKE SCHREINER is touring on his home turf in Guelph, focusing on the party’s housing platform.
— 7 p.m.: Horwath will attend her local riding association’s virtual annual general meeting in Hamilton Centre.
MPPs are gearing up for a federal campaign — 3 p.m.: Independent RANDY HILLIER will be in Thornhill with MAXIME BERNIER, leader of the People’s Party of Canada, for a “pre-campaign freedom rally.”
— 7 p.m.: PC Minister MICHAEL TIBOLLO will be a featured guest at a fundraising event put on by federal Conservative candidate JOEL ETIENNE (York Centre). The invite.
— $11-million Covid fraud case on the docket: The PCs are in court today arguing to refreeze “fraudulently obtained funds” used by the family tied to the alleged theft. More in the Star.
DISAPPEARING FUNDRAISERS
— A provincial Liberal backyard fundraiser in support of Toronto Centre candidate DAVID MORRIS took place last night. You’d be forgiven if you missed it — the event wasn’t properly posted to the party’s website, as is required by law.
Spokesperson WILL WUEHR explained that when the $150-a-ticket event sold out, the cost was “inadvertently removed,” and while it was listed on July 30, “an error was made and the page was not linked to the events tab properly.”
— A $1,000-a-plate PC fundraiser featuring Premier DOUG FORD in Hamilton this afternoon has been cancelled.
MAKING HEADLINES
— Speaking of meetings that may or may not be happening: Ford turned down Del Duca’s written request to convene with the opposition leaders pushing for mandatory vaccinations for health and education workers. Del Duca wrote to Ford Wednesday, reiterating that such measures could tamp down the fourth wave and avoid future lockdowns.
In response, Ford’s office pointed to the fact that 72 per cent of eligible Ontarians are now fully vaccinated — and continued to poke holes in Del Duca’s stance.
“No matter how many times the opposition says it, they are misleading the public when they claim to be calling for mandatory vaccines. There are no consequences in their plans for workers who don’t get vaccinated and therefore vaccines would not be mandatory,” said Ford’s press secretary ALEXANDRA ADAMO.
Between the lines: A senior government source noted there is nothing stopping businesses or local health units from implementing vaccination policies. But the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s VP of policy DANIEL SAFAYENI says the current approach will lead to a patchwork system, add another burden on businesses, and could wind up in legal disputes or outbreaks.
— COVID 4.0: The fourth wave is decidedly upon us. Dr. PETER JUNI of the Science Advisory Table says he won’t support any easing of restrictions in the face of the Delta variant and rising case counts — raining on the parade of anyone who got their hopes up Tuesday when top doc KIERAN MOORE said Ontario could exit Step 3 within seven to 10 days. CTV News has the story.
— PLACE YOUR BETS…as soon as today: After clearing the House of Commons, Senate and Royal Assent, single-event sports wagering legislation is expected to come into force with the federal government’s proclamation. Read up on Ontario’s draft standards here.
— Another federal announcement Queen’s Park watchers are glued to: Vaccine passports for international travel are en route, by “early fall” — something Ontario has defaulted to pushing for when pressed on whether it’ll introduce a domestic version within provincial borders. Once more for people in the back: No dice, say the PCs — but the feds say their version can be used by the provinces if they wish. More from CP.
— DATA DISCREPANCIES: Experts are warning that the new Covid vaccination data may not show the whole picture. As one doc put it to CTV News: “If 99 per cent of people are vaccinated in the province, of course when people are admitted to hospital, you are going to see a lot of vaccinated people, because the number of unvaccinated people is so small.”
— WHAT ABOUT BOOSTERS? Add the Ontario Retirement Communities Association to the growing list of groups calling for mandatory vaccinations for health-care workers. Ditto provincial guidance on boosters for seniors and staff.
— BIG SHOTS ON CAMPUS: U of T and Western will require all students, faculty and staff to show proof-of-vaccination in order to be on the premises, following Ottawa U and Seneca College. Other post-secondary institutions are mandating at least one dose for students living in the dorms. Last week, Colleges Ontario and the Council of Ontario Universities released a joint letter calling for a “provincewide policy that would require the vaccination of post-secondary students, staff and faculty.”
— ROSY REVENUE: Hydro One is reporting a second-quarter profit of $238-million and $1.72-billion in revenue. The Canadian Press breaks it down.
Q+A WITH MICHAEL COTEAU
First in Queen’s Park Observer — I spoke with the soon-to-be-former Liberal MPP following his federal-nomination victory in Don Valley East — the riding he’s represented for a decade at Queen’s Park.
When the Grits were in power, Coteau sat on the front bench as the minister in charge of the political-hot-potato autism file and oversaw the creation of the Anti-Racism Directorate. After a brutal 2018 showing, he was one of only seven MPPs to hang on to their seat. Now, he’s setting his sights on Ottawa.
The highlights:
How’s it feel to come out on top with over 50 per cent support in a contested nomination race? “I feel great. Being out there on the street, basically, for a month and a bit knocking on doors, talking to people and building confidence within the community to take on this task is just — it is a nice feeling.”
You don’t have to resign provincially until you officially become a federal candidate when the writ drops. What’s your timeline for all that? “I will resign, I believe it’ll probably be shortly. I started to get everything in order — you have to officially send [the Speaker] a letter, you have to basically give up the keys to the office. The transition has started.”
Your constituents could go 10 months without representation at Queen’s Park. Should Premier DOUG FORD call a byelection before the June 2 vote? “It’s a tough decision because you’ve got to weigh the cost and the timelines with the actual election date…People in Don Valley East will continue to get the services that they’re used to. There will still be staff in the office — the way it worked in the past, they will report to the [party’s House leader], so it’d be JOHN FRASER. They just won’t have a representative.”
Were you miffed when the federal party acclaimed your former caucus-mate YASIR NAQVI (Ottawa Centre) and others as candidates just a couple days after you had to duke it out for DVE? “In my whole political career, nothing has been handed to me. If you’re not challenged it makes things easier, but when you go through these challenges, it really helps define your character and it adds to you as a politician.”
What will you miss most about working at Queen’s Park?
“I will miss the files that are connected to families and children, and that connect to the opening up of opportunity. It’s been a pretty incredible journey because remember, I started off with Citizenship and Immigration, so I’d meet refugees who were just new to the country and looking towards building a better life. Then going into Tourism, Culture and Sport, it was about the celebration of life. And then Children and Youth Services went into child protection — the most vulnerable — and Social Services near the end, and the Anti-Racism Directorate.
“So I’ve seen people when they face the most challenges in life, and I’ve seen — like when I delivered the Pan Am Games — the celebration of excellence and success in Ontario. That is one of the most rewarding pieces and, you know, I feel proud leaving Queen’s Park.”
How do you stay connected with your constituents at the federal level, which is arguably far-removed from day-to-day life compared to provincial and municipal domains, such as health care and garbage pick-up? “There’s two things that I think are paramount. Preserving democracy is something that is so important to me — we saw what happened in the United States and in other countries. I want to make sure that that is preserved in this country — a good, functioning working democracy. Second thing is, I want to be able to into the national scene and look for ways to ensure the protection of individual and collective rights.”
I hear the coffee on the Hill is better than at the Leg. Looking forward to that? “I grew up drinking instant coffee, so there you go.”
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
CANDIDATES CORNER — TAMARA KRONIS, who spent the last year as associate chair of the Human Rights Tribunal of Ontario, is now the federal Conservative candidate for Nanaimo—Ladysmith in B.C.
As one NDPer pointed out, Kronis’s HRTO appointment was scrutinized majorly at the time — and Democracy Watch even launched a lawsuit over the new process, arguing that it violates legislation requiring independent tribunals and merit-based appointments.
— Closer to home, a Queen’s Park staffer has entered the federal ring. BRENDAN KNIGHT will be taking a leave from his gig as Liberal MPP MITZIE HUNTER’s executive assistant to run for MP in Perth—Wellington.
The boss is on board and will go out on the stump. “I support Brendan, he’s taking this bold step, and it’s a great reason to get out to the beautiful riding of Perth—Wellington,” Hunter said. The Scarborough—Guildwood MPP will also canvass with her federal counterpart JOHN MCKAY.
(Knight isn’t the first Hunter staffer to vie for elected office — before registered nurse TYLER WATT was the provincial Grit candidate for Nepean, he was her legislative assistant.)
— New Democrats debuted their 2022 candidate for Windsor—Tecumseh: GEMMA GREY-HALL, described as an executive, community leader, women’s advocate, and certified fundraising professional. Grey-Hall will be formally acclaimed on August 19.
PERCY HATFIELD was in tow to pass the torch, a sign that everything is peachy between the party and the retiring MPP, who’s represented the riding since 2013.
So far only the PCs — who believe they can take Windsor-area seats from the NDP — have nominated their horse in the race: local councillor ANDREW DOWIE.
— Over in London North Centre, the Greens have picked CAROL DYCK to carry their banner. Dyck is currently a doctoral student focused on marine law at Western University. She’ll face off with NDP incumbent TERENCE KERNAGHAN, third-place Liberal leadership candidate KATE GRAHAM and Tory restaurant owner JERRY PRIBIL.
STAFFING UP — BENJAMIN LEVITT has joined Associate Small Business Minister NINA TANGRI’s office as director of stakeholder relations. Levitt previously held the role at Government and Consumer Services.
SPOTTED:
— Ex-Premier KATHLEEN WYNNE knocking doors with provincial Liberal candidate hopeful KARIM BARDEESY — who’s battling it out with at least three other contenders for the nomination in Parkdale—High Park, a riding they haven’t held since 2006. It’s represented by the NDP’s BHUTILA KARPOCHE, and before that, CHERI DINOVO.
— SARAH POLLEY’s lovely thread on BILL DAVIS.
— A cartoonish R.I.P. to a lockdown-free future:
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
— Utilia Amaral, Utilia Amaral: South Essex Fabricating Inc.
(Fun fact: Amaral is STEVEN DEL DUCA’s wife.)
— Bryan Detchou, Crestview Strategy: Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan
— Kailey Vokes, StrategyCorp: Town of Caledon
— Andrew Steele, StrategyCorp: Longview Aviation Capital Corp
— Stephanie Dunlop, Hill+Knowlton Strategies: Interac Corp.
— Vivek Prabhu, Hill+Knowlton Strategies: Leafly
— Sarah Dickson and Harvey Nightingale, Hill+Knowlton Strategies: MTX Consulting
— Trisha Rinneard, Wellington Advocacy: Dialogue Health Technologies Inc
— Heather Tory, Longview Communications & Public Affairs: Glencore Canada Corporation
— Andrew Boddington, Policy Concepts: Rick Hansen Foundation
IN-HOUSE ORGANIZATIONS: Mohawk College — Ontario Association of Children’s Aid Societies — Chicken Farmers of Ontario — Eli Lilly Canada — Air Canada — Teranet.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: CAITLIN HIPKISS, executive assistant to NDP MPP JEFF BURCH (Niagara Centre).