Why this mini budget is so high-stakes

SCOOP: Elections Ontario's campaign prep

Presented by the Ontario Retirement Communities Association

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First in Observer — Elections Ontario is on the hunt for campaign-related real estate and promo materials — something that is, naturally, stoking the snap-vote speculation.

Primed real estate: According to a request for quote (RFQ) posted this week, Elections Ontario is seeking real-estate consulting services to help returning officers in “sourcing, negotiating, and securing leases for office spaces across Ontario.” That includes 124 returning offices — which serve as each riding’s electoral headquarters — as well as 124 “training and logistics offices in each electoral district.”

Timing is everything: The provincial electoral agency is also looking for a supplier of “branded promotional materials and merchandise” for what appears to be its register-to-vote campaign. EO wants the materials delivered to its Scarborough warehouse by January 15, 2025. That would be just in time for a possible spring election.

Working the polls: EO previously fuelled early election speculation when it went on a hiring spree for election clerks and returning officers (scooped here).

It isn’t clear how far out the agency typically prepares for a campaign in this way, and while Elections Ontario didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, I have a sense of what they might say. EO previously told me that if you stay ready, you ain’t got to get ready — they’re always prepared to run a campaign, especially when Premier DOUG FORD refuses to rule one out for next year.

For now, sate yourself with Chief Electoral Officer GREG ESSENSA’s latest report on how to fight fake news in the next election.

UPDATE: Here’s the response: “Elections Ontario is dedicated to ensuring that elections across the province are fair and efficient. The current Requests for Proposals are a crucial part of our preparations for the scheduled election in June 2026.”

Think of today’s Fall Economic Statement as the playoffs before the snap-vote Superbowl.

In normal times, a mid-mandate FES would be a relatively sleepy affair. That’s because governments tend to save their vote-grabbing goodies for closer to campaign season.

But these are not normal times. With Queen’s Park buzzing about the possibility of an early vote next year, today’s mini-budget could be a litmus test before the big budget in the spring, which, as the running theory goes, may double as the PCs campaign platform.