Your budget day play-by-play
Also: Insiders on what to expect, Bethlenfalvy's pre-game revealed, DM shuffle, sketchy fundraiser, Michael Ford's mea culpa, Hunter's in, lockup survival tips and more
ABOVE THE FOLD
Happy Budget Day, Ontario! Here’s your minute-by-minute guide on what to expect, how the Finance Minister is pre-gaming, what insiders are keeping an eye on, lockup survival tips from key fiscal players and the latest leaks.
Set the table: Insiders are expecting a sober budget that will make for tricky framing for Oppo critics.
— SADAF ABBASI, director of Ontario government relations at Sussex Strategy: I expect the main theme for today’s budget to be fiscal prudence. Investments will be more targeted and thoughtful this time around, in contrast to the emergency spending that was quickly deployed during the province’s pandemic response.
I am particularly interested to see what the budget lays out on the health care front, especially as they are preceding the federal budget. Health care is a significant vulnerability for all of Canada’s Premiers, and Premier Ford is no exception. It will be important for them to map out both funding commitments and policy direction on key issues for a system still struggling to recover from the pandemic.
We can expect both the Official Opposition and Liberals to critique the budget, irrespective of what it contains. Barring any blockbuster surprises in the budget however, I do not expect any criticism from the Opposition to resonate in a meaningful way with Ontarians.
— FRASER MACDONALD, vice-president at StrategyCorp and Conservative campaign veteran: The PCs want the public to take away that they’re striking the right balance of fiscal restraint and investing in the province’s future growth. I would expect any new spending to be focused around health care or encouraging economic growth and productivity.
The Opposition doesn’t have much to work with. Challenging times can’t be pinned on the province and polls show DOUG FORD is strong on the economy, jobs and cost of living (for good reason).
— CLARE MICHAELS, associate principal at Navigator and former top comms and speechwriter staff to the Premier and Finance Minister: PETER BETHLENFALVY will have spent the last 24-48 hours closeted in boardrooms with his chief of staff and head of communications refining his hour-long speech.
Expect a budget that winds down one-time pandemic spending and redirects those dollars to other pressing priorities, like the health care system. We will likely see targeted measures to address affordability and invest heavily in skills training, job creation, and key infrastructure. We can also expect a realistic path to a balanced budget, with contingencies that will allow the government to respond to changing economic conditions.
— KARL BALDAUF, vice-president at McMillan Vantage and then-chief of staff to Bethlenfalvy when he was Treasury Board president: The conventional wisdom is that the first budget of a majority government’s mandate is where the difficult things happen — but I would imagine that the blowback from the 2019 budget is still reverberating through the approach this government will take, and that they will avoid controversial and ideologically-driven expenditure decisions.
Bethlenfalvy understands the external issues at play — geopolitical tensions causing a need to bring supply chains closer to home, as well as making strategic investments that drive up a competitive advantage for the future.
Pour the wine: I asked fiscally-minded folks around Queen’s Park for their advice on how to make it through today’s lockup, which is (unfortunately) a virtual affair. Their tips, tricks and to-do’s:
— MARK LAWSON, former chief of staff to the Finance Minister, now VP at spa company Therme Group: On Budget Day, if you’re political staff, you need:
Snacks. You’re not going to get out of the office or out of lockup. Pack a lunch. Make a pot of coffee. Then make another one because other people will drink your coffee. Pack more than you need. You’re not leaving the building.
To thank people. Teams of officials work really hard for months to assemble this document. Everyone in lockup is trying to figure out what this means for their industry, their client, or the public at large. Help by answering their questions. It’s a long day at the end of a long process for a lot of people. Don’t forget that.
A dose of humility and gratitude. It’s an honour and a privilege to work with policymakers on something that can have a positive impact on millions of people across the province. It’s a long day. Start and end with that in mind.
— PETER WELTMAN, Financial Accountability Officer: I will head for a noon spin class to clear my head. Then I will make sure I have sufficient espresso on hand to keep me sharp as I work through the tables and charts at the back of the document. And maybe a couple of Josephine Louise cakes from Bunner’s Bakeshop to give me energy to get through the front end.
But the best part will be showing up at TVO to participate in the budget day festivities on The Agenda. I’ll be rested and relaxed as I watch the Minister give his 23rd interview of the day and the Opposition leaders probably a similar number in response. I will then spend some time with Steve Paikin helping viewers understand key parts of the budget, how they are put together and why they are important to us at the FAO. All the while being relaxed and rested — or did I say that already?
Catch up on inimitable survival tips from SCOTT BLODGETT, senior media relations adviser at the Finance Ministry and Queen’s Park’s resident lockup maestro.
Dig in: Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY is locked and loaded. Behind the scenes, he’s practiced his speech “countless” times, including a dress rehearsal in the chamber when the House wasn’t sitting.
“He sweats the details and he’s a consistently early riser, which tends to help on days like this,” said one source close to the Minister.
He’ll also look the part. Per tradition, Bethlenfalvy, the son of Hungarian immigrants, purchased a pair of new shoes at Tom’s Place in Kensington Market, run by a fellow Hungarian. A little birdie tells me he picked out a Tory blue tie for today, but that could change.
Drip, drip, drip: Ford and Bethlenfalvy revealed another morsel in the run-up: a new tax credit to help manufacturers recover. It’s a 10 per cent refundable corporate income tax credit of up to $2 million a year for companies to use to invest in buildings, machinery and equipment. Sticker price: $780 million over three years.
Go deeper: Our readers will know Bethlenfalvy has been pumping up the budget as austerity-themed, but he’s not about to “cut” his way to prosperity.
Much to municipalities’ dismay: Deputy Toronto Mayor JENNIFER McKELVIE isn’t holding her breath that the cash-strapped city will get a provincial bailout. Other cities and towns are hoping this budget will do as the Tories promised and make cities “whole” after they punched a hole in their budgets by scrapping developer fees.
So much for the recent string of worker-friendly policies: Meanwhile, the PCs are scrapping the pandemic-prompted program for three paid sick days. Covid restrictions are also being eased in LTC homes. CP got the jump.
FORD GOES FOR ROUND II — The Premier dropped the manufacturing nugget in Oakville, where he also held forth on a raft of other matters.
Gloves are off: Again, Ford appeared unfazed at harsh words from federal Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT, who has launched a biodiversity and at-risk species study for Rouge National Urban Park, nearby the Greenbelt lands that are tagged for development. Guilbeault had said “collaboration is impossible.”
To which Ford replied: “I don’t pay any attention to political comments from Guilbeault.”
Rules for me and not for thee: Regular readers will know the Observer’s sources have long suggested the PCs were looking at the possibility of changing campaign rules for municipal elections that allow sitting councillors — unlike MPPs and MPs — to keep their seat while running for mayor of, say, Toronto.
Ford isn’t a fan, but he doesn’t seem willing to make the change at the provincial level just yet. “The councillors that are jumping in there [the race for Toronto mayor], they don’t have to step down, unlike MPs and MPPs, which I think council should review that. But I’ll work with anyone.”
HUNTER’S IN/OUT NEXT WEEK — That includes MITZIE HUNTER, who is kicking her mayoral bid into high gear. Hunter did the media rounds this week saying she’s “preparing” her bid and will resign her long-held MPP seat in Scarborough—Guildwood.
We called it! As first pointed out in this newsletter, Hunter has until the close of nominations on May 12 to resign as MPP, triggering a byelection.
Start the clock: The countdown to the byelection starts when she hands her letter of resignation to Speaker TED ARNOTT. Premier DOUG FORD will have six months from then to set a date for the vote — meaning the call will come by mid September.
FORD’S MEA CULPA — The Premier’s nephew and Multiculturalism Minister MICHAEL FORD is apologizing after the NDP called out his framing of a Toronto youth organization.
To wit: As first reported in yesterday’s edition, Ford’s NDP predecessor in York South—Weston, ex-MPP FAISAL HASSAN, spotted a flyer in which he characterized Frontlines as a charity that helps kids “integrate.” An accompanying photo showed Ford shaking hands with a young Black person.
“Words matter,” Leader MARIT STILES later tweeted.
To which Ford replied: “I see that different words should have been used. Frontlines is an important organization who does incredible work to empower and elevate children and youth in #YSW. My intention was to showcase their impactful work and the difference they make each and every day.”
HAPPENING TODAY
BUDGET PLAY-BY-PLAY: Bethlenfalvy delivers his speech just after 4 p.m. in the House. That’s when the embargo lifts and the budget documents are made public.
Behind the scenes in the virtual lockup — 9:30 a.m.: Reporters, stakeholders, Oppo MPPs, staff and more get access to the budget documents. At 11 a.m.: Technical briefing with Ministry officials. At 2 p.m.: Bethlenfalvy will take reporters’ questions at an embargoed presser. Oppo follows at 2:30 p.m.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6 p.m.: Minister MICHAEL TIBOLLO is headlining a $500-a-ticket fundraiser on his home turf in Vaughan. Invite.
— 7 p.m.: PC DAWN GALLAGHER MURPHY “and special guest” are hosting a $1,500-a-head cash-grab event in an undisclosed location — which we understand is technically illegal as locations must be publicly posted in advance. RSVP.
ON THE ORDER PAPER
First up: Bill 79, Labour Minister MONTE McNAUGHTON’s omnibus worker-friendly legislation, continues to chug through second-reading debate. It will likely hit the six-and-a-half-hour mark required for a vote to send it to committee.
After the morning’s Question Period, a deferred vote on NDP TERESA ARMSTRONG’s (non-binding but symbolic) motion to make social assistance rates “consistent and equitable.”
Later on, after Bethlenfalvy’s big speech: the PCs will kick off debate on a routine motion to approve the budget.
WEDNESDAY’S RUNDOWN —
Off to committee: As we predicted yesterday, PC DAWN GALLAGHER MURPHY’s backbench Bill 70 — to proclaim June Seniors Month — is headed to the Social Policy committee after clearing a second-reading vote with unanimous support.
Enshrined: Bill 46, the PCs latest red-tape reduction package, and Bill 77, the routine Supply Act authorizing already-approved legislative spending, received Royal Assent.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — 9 a.m.: A pair of government appointees are in the hot seat: GORDON CLARK, chair of the Algonquin Forestry Authority, and SIMON FOSTER, a member of the Ontario Council for the Arts. It’s a relative snoozer: These two are the government’s picks for committee scrutiny, and unlike Oppo, the PCs aren’t likely to pick controversial appointees.
COCKTAIL CHATTER — It’s slim pickings for receptions during budget week, but Interac will be around for an MPP luncheon.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — DM SHUFFLE — TAMARA GILBERT is now acting assistant deputy minister at Energy’s conservation and renewable energy division, taking over from STEEN HUME. Gilbert was previously an ADM on the Education file.
BEYOND THE BUBBLE — MATTHEW BONDY has signed on to Enterprise Canada as vice-president of national public affairs and southwestern Ontario lead. Bondy, who also debuted at the Canada Strong and Free Network (ex-Manning Centre) conference happening in Ottawa this week, is a former top staffer to Premier DOUG FORD and most recently worked at Communitech.
SPOTTED:
Union brass, PCs and more “baffled” at PIERRE POILIEVRE’s criticism of the Volkswagen deal..Liberals defending their former benchmate MP HAN DONG, who exited the federal Grit caucus amid bombshell allegations related to Chinese political interference…Would-be provincial Liberal leadership contender NATE ERSKINE-SMITH on campus for a flag-raising ceremony.
QUESTION PERIOD
THE HIGHLIGHTS: “Will the Premier finally stop his attack on our Greenbelt?” — “Are the interests of regular people in this province taking a back seat to the interests of their friends and donors?” — Meet with disability advocates and immediately work to fully implement the AODA — “Commit to studying the long-term health effects of boil-water advisories to help children” — “Honour treaty obligations and future generations of Ontarians by protecting our water” — “Ensure the survival of creative industries and support the artists who drive them” — “Ontario needs another 65,000 ECEs and child care staff by 2026” — “Stop fighting nurses in court over the unconstitutional Bill 124 wage cap and start actually fixing the housing affordability crisis” — “Protect tenants with real rent control.”
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Matthew Dubé, Proof Strategies: StubHub
Patrick Harris, Rubicon Strategy: Bruce Power
Stefano Hollands, Crestview Strategy: New Protein International
In-house organizations: West End Home Builders’ Association — Canadian Microelectronics Corp. — The Co-operators Group.
🍽️ ON TAP: Wondering whether to pick up or pack a lunch? Here’s what on the menu at the Quorum Cafe’s basement cafeteria: Fish and chips with homemade slaw and tartar sauce…At the bowl station all week: Hawaiian poke.
🍫 TUCK SHOP — Need some Budget Day sustenance? There’s plenty of snacks, caffeinated drinks — and hot gossip — to be had in the Press Gallery Lounge’s Tuck Shop, located on the third floor of the east wing.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: ROBERT BENZIE, Queen’s Park bureau chief for the Toronto Star…Conservative strategist and commentator MELANIE PARADIS.
⌛COUNTDOWN: T-minus 8 days until the Sunshine List is legally due out…25 days until Spring Fling…95 days until Toronto’s mayoral byelection.