Byelection victory parties and war rooms
"It's Marit-geddon"
Presented by Ontario’s Universities
ABOVE THE FOLD
IT’S EASY BEING GREEN — Last night’s byelection in Kitchener Centre was a major feat for the Greens — and a big flop for everyone else. Here’s how it’s all shaking out.
By the numbers: At my last check around 11 p.m., the Greens’ AISLINN CLANCY had trounced her rivals, taking roughly 48 per cent of the vote and doubling their caucus at Queen’s Park.
It wasn’t even close. Clancy, who’s also deputy leader, beat out the second-place incumbent NDP by more than 5,000 votes — candidate DEBBIE CHAPMAN secured nearly 27 per cent, followed by the PCs out-of-towner, late-in-the-game contender ROB ELLIOTT with 13 per cent. The Liberals — who mostly up until 2018 reigned supreme in the riding — placed fourth, with a paltry 7 per cent for KELLY STEISS.
Turnout — typically lower in byelections — clocked in at 27 per cent. In case you missed it yesterday, here’s what was at stake for each party.
Hot takes: Galvanized Greens could be a political nightmare for the Liberals and New Democrats. “It’s the best outcome for the Ford PCs. A Green Party at 10% is the OLP and ONDP’s worst nightmare…the Greens could split the vote enough for us to win another five ridings that we would have lost,” texted one Conservative operative.
Another Tory suggested that the timing — two days before the Liberals crown their next leader — gave presumed frontrunner BONNIE CROMBIE a pass. (As we scooped on Tuesday, Crombie’s camp told me that, based on their internal numbers, there’s “no path to victory” for her rivals.)
“By [DOUG] FORD calling the byelection now and not after Bonnie is leader, we are giving her a pass,” the Tory organizer said. “He is allowing Bonnie to say this loss occurred before she was leader — therefore not her fault. Bonnie is starting with a clean slate. The PCs gifted her that.”
One senior Liberal insider acknowledged it was “terrible numbers for the Liberals but we were never expected to win and it was held during a leadership race.” Then came the mudslinging: “The only loser last night was MARIT [STILES] and the NDP, who lost big time.”
“It’s Marit-geddon,” added another cheeky strategist.
Spotted at the after parties: Team Clancy celebrated with a packed house at McMullan’s on Highland Road, featuring fellow history-makers MIKE SCHREINER, provincial leader and first-ever MPP in nearby Guelph, and MIKE MORRICE, Ontario’s first-ever Green elected to the Hill, who also reps Kitchener Centre.
“Our Green wave is growing. It’s clear that our commitment to people over party is resonating with Ontarians,” Schreiner said.
NDPers licked their wounds at Crabby Joe’s. Defeat aside, Leader MARIT STILES — who’s also dealing with a caucus rift — Chapman and volunteers put on a brave face.
Stiles said she’s still proud of the campaign they ran. “There’s always work to be done. As a team, we will reflect on the campaign. But the message from Kitchener voters is clear: After more than five years of Doug Ford, life has become harder and more expensive for everyone, except for his select insiders.”
Steiss and the Grits got a consolation prize at the Centre in the Square theatre. Steiss’s husband cooked up a spread with samosas, spring rolls and veggies. It was a “family affair.”
“I’m the oldest of four girls and two of my sisters came down…and my 17-year-old niece came along. I’ve got my daughter and my son and my husband all out hitting the doors,” Steiss told me during a quick break from canvassing.
The PCs partied at the local Casey’s. Elliott thanked constituents and volunteers and congratulated Clancy on social media. “What a run!”
A message from Ontario’s Universities
After a 10% tuition cut in 2019, four years of a tuition freeze, and pressure from inflation, Ontario’s universities are at a breaking point. Without ending the tuition freeze and providing additional government funding to universities, the programs and services that Ontario’s students rely on and deserve are at risk.
The time for government action is now. Find out more about how government, businesses, community partners and universities must work together to ensure that universities have the resources to continue to support students, lead innovation, and drive economic growth for Ontario here.
HAPPENING TODAY
9:30 a.m.: Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA is making an announcement in Markham.
9:30 a.m.: Natural Resources Minister GRAYDON SMITH is up in Eganville.
11 a.m.: Trade Minister VIC FEDELI is in London alongside PETER FRAGISKATOS, federal Parliamentary Secretary to the Housing Minister.
HAPPENING SATURDAY — NEW GRIT — 12:30 p.m.: We’ll find out who the next leader of the Ontario Liberals is on Saturday at the Metro Convention Centre. I’ll have boots on the ground and full coverage bright and early on Monday — come by the media pen to say hi!
We called it! — ACCOUNTABILITY CHRISTMAS — Mark your calendars: Acting Auditor General NICK STAVROPOULOS will release his annual report on Wednesday, December 6. On the audit docket: the Science Centre move, Public Health Ontario, the Environmental Bill of Rights, drivers’ ed, long-term care homes, ERs and more. Full lineup.
THE HOUSE IS OUT. It’s Friday!
THURSDAY’S RUNDOWN:
On the fast track: a trio of hot-potato PC bills, much to Oppo’s chagrin. House Leader PAUL CALANDRA has a motion on the Order Paper that would skip the committee stage for Bill 154 — which speeds up construction of Ontario Place and bypasses environmental assessments — and see it go straight for third-reading debate. Greenbelt-reverting Bill 136 and Official Plan-backtrack Bill 150 will also zip through a truncated third reading — with just 30 minutes of debate for the government and 30 minutes for Oppo.
Tabled I: Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY’s Bill 157, omnibus justice legislation that scraps mandatory coroner’s inquests for workers who died on construction sites, makes it easier for victims to sue their offenders for emotional distress — including for acts of terrorism, human trafficking and hate-related crimes targeting places of worship — raises the cap on the number of cannabis storefronts a licensed retailer can have from 75 to 150, and bans recreational cannabis growth in homes that offer daycare.
Tabled II: PCer BRIAN RIDDELL’s private member’s Bill 158, to proclaim every July 7 as Group of Seven Day.
Killed: The NDP’s motion for OHIP-covered birth control.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — 9 a.m.: Bill 136, the Greenbelt-reverting and indemnifying legislation, could be amended during clause-by-clause consideration.
10-YEAR REVIEW — Speaking of the Greenbelt bill, Housing Minister PAUL CALANDRA laid out some changes to the mandatory 10-year review of the (re)protected lands during yesterday’s not-so-public hearings.
“We want to remove any politics from the review and put it back into the hands of conservation, agriculture and environmental experts — non-partisan experts…and through engagement with municipalities and Indigenous communities,” Calandra said.
Then: “Once final, the expert recommendations will be provided to the Auditor General and [its] commissioner of the environment to ensure the review process was both fair and guided by the recommendations to improve the process.” Details are coming “very soon.”
Meanwhile, a group of Greenbelt advocates who say they “give a hoot” about not being able to speak up during the hearings packed the room. Things got testy when PC NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA pointed out their age in speaking about the need for housing. “I do want to speak up for the younger generation because, you know, very respectfully, I couldn’t help but notice that we don’t have many members of the younger generation present here in the audience today.”
That prompted some groans from the crowd and a call to order from chair LAURIE SCOTT.
CLIPPINGS
We called it! — CROSSTOWN COMMS: Metrolinx says it won’t reveal the opening date for the much-delayed Eglinton Crosstown LRT until three months before they expect trains to be up and running. It confirms part of our scoop re: the agency’s working opening date of December 2024. Get up to speed.
— POLL WATCH: “Premier DOUG FORD’s Progressive Conservatives are weathering the Greenbelt scandal, but a storm cloud in the form of BONNIE CROMBIE as Liberal leader is looming…The Abacus Data survey for the Star found Ford’s Tories have rebounded to 42 per cent compared to 24 per cent for MARIT STILES’ New Democrats and 23 per cent for the leaderless Liberals. MIKE SCHREINER’s Greens remained at seven per cent…With Crombie, the Tories dip to 39 per cent and the Liberals jump to 31 per cent, while the New Democrats drop to 20 per cent and the Greens to six per cent.”
— PUFF PUFF, PASS: “The Ontario Cannabis Store is now the most lucrative provincial cannabis agency in Canada, thanks to four consecutive profitable years selling recreational cannabis. Yet throughout that time, it puzzlingly paid no dividends to Ontario’s government.” The IRPP’s Policy Options digs in.
— PATIENT PRIVACY (OR NOT): “A group of southwestern Ontario hospitals is facing a potential $480-million class action lawsuit after at least 270,000 patients in the region had their data breached and reportedly sold by hackers on the dark web.” Details from CTV News.
— USE IT OR LOSE IT: “Some Ontario cities want power to slap 'use it or lose it' penalties on stalled housing projects,” CBC reports.
— ANTI-CARBON TAX CRUSADE: “The Chiefs of Ontario and Attawapiskat First Nation are calling for a legal review of the federal government’s carbon price, claiming Canada has not meaningfully engaged with the First Nations’ concerns over the levy’s rebate they say is discriminatory and anti-reconciliatory.” More in the Star.
— TIMBER!: Trade Minister VIC FEDELI reacts to the U.S. sunset review on softwood lumber: “The Ontario government is extremely disappointed…Today’s decision ignores the strong evidence presented to the Commission demonstrating that softwood lumber exports from Ontario and Canada are not harming the U.S. softwood lumber industry — and it ignores Ontario’s long-standing criticism that U.S. duties on softwood lumber are unwarranted and unfair.”
A message from Colleges Ontario, the advocacy voice for the province’s 24 public colleges
Twenty-five per cent of job openings in today’s market require college credentials and that will rise to 36 per cent over the next 10 years. We owe it to our students and businesses to get the college investment model right and make sure colleges remain key training hubs for our workforce.
We are calling on the government to act now on solutions that will support college students and the key sectors of our province’s economy.
Learn more about our recommendations here.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — TRANSITIONS — The Housing exodus continues as Minister PAUL CALANDRA continues to clean house. The latest: BRANDON FALCONE goes from stakeholder adviser at the troubled ministry, to Labour Minister DAVID PICCINI’s office, where he’s working as policy adviser. Meanwhile, CHRIS POULOS — who we first told you had exited Housing in October — has also landed in Piccini’s camp, as director of issues management, Leg affairs and priority initiatives.
Also on Team Piccini: KATIE PFISTERER is back as senior manager of operations and CHRISTOPHER McDOWELL is executive assistant.
SPOTTED:
Our Christmas tree play-by-play continues: The NDP’s is lit, the PC’s is very, very big…
QUESTION PERIOD
THE HIGHLIGHTS: “Why would this Premier force the people of Ontario to pay twice as much for a science centre that’s half the size?” — “Listen to the people of Thorncliffe Park, Flemingdon Park and many other communities served by the Science Centre and keep it where it is?” — “Why is this luxury spa so important to [the Premier] that he is rewriting the laws of the province of Ontario to make it happen?” — “How about discussing with municipalities like Timmins, like Timiskaming Shores, like Iroquois Falls, about the highways that you downloaded to them?” — Expand OHIP to cover birth control — “Can we expect an actual update from Mr. [PHIL] VERSTER on the status of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT?” — Why let the Liberals’ defibrillator registration legislation languish at committee? — “Provide full RSV coverage for all people over the age of 60” — “What is Ontario’s plan to address gender-based and intimate partner violence?” — “Why is this government underfunding the child care system and delaying the implementation of affordable child care?”
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Will Stewart, Laura Grosman and Matthew Gibson, Hill + Knowlton Strategies: NextStar Energy
Carly Luis (Bergamini), Enterprise Canada: Addictions & Mental Health Ontario
Shakir Chambers, Earnscliffe: Chemistry Industry Association of Canada
Clare Michaels, Navigator: Atlantic Packaging Products Ltd.
David Morgado, ONpoint Strategy Group: Protexxa Inc.
Marc Kealey, Kealey & Associates: Lillabelle Lakeview Corporation
Jeff Silverstein, Radius Public Relations: Ontario Occupational Health Nurses Association
Andrea van Vugt, Wellington Advocacy: Detroit International Bridge Corporation, LLC
Adwet Sharma, Edelman Global Advisory: The Sleeve Clinic
Amir Remtulla, Amir Remtulla: Revera Inc., Crestpoint Acquisition Corporation, Crestpoint Real Estate Investments Ltd., Residences at Sugar Wharf Ltd.
Justine Yeong, Wellington Dupont Public Affairs: DCM Solutions
Chad Rogers, Crestview Strategy: Capital Power Corporation
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: ON SUNDAY — ALEXANDRA BLAIR HOENE, chief of staff to the Small Biz Minister.
🍽️ ON THE MENU: Chickpea curry with rice and veggies is on special.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 1 day until the Liberal leadership contest…13 days until the House breaks for winter…127 days until the Premier has to call a byelection for Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.