Byelections good, fourplexes bad
And Bethlenfalvy scoops himself
ABOVE THE FOLD
A very busy Thursday at Queen’s Park — we’ve got more byelection buzz, pre-budget leaks, the inside track on the fourplex fallout, a truce on Highway 413, forest fires blazing and more — and the week ain’t over yet. News Fridays, am I right?
BYELECTION BUZZ — The call is imminent. Word on the street is Premier DOUG FORD will call the byelections for Milton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex as soon as this coming Wednesday, the day after the budget.
Sources previously said they expect it will be a double-header. There’s not much time left to set a date for LKM, and the Premier is expected to move on Milton, too.
Time is of the essence for the Liberals in particular, who came in close second in Milton in 2022 and could give the PCs (Liberal-linked) contender ZEE HAMID a run for his money. The stakes are also high for new leader BONNIE CROMBIE to flex her electoral prowess and try to nab another seat for the party, which is just three seats away from recognized party status.
But the Grits don’t have a candidate yet (neither does the NDP for that matter). It’s a “real pickle” at Liberal Party HQ, sources tell me, as the mystery candidate is still “in flux” days before the expected byelection call. That could cost their future candidates precious door-knocking and canvassing time.
Name-check: Another name floating around the rumour mill is local councillor KRISTINA TESSER DERKSEN. I caught up with her bright and early on Wednesday, and she’s keeping coy, saying she’s “not running” but “maybe that’ll change in the next little while.”
“I’m not running as far as I know. I don’t know if they’ve made a decision,” Tesser Derksen said. “I haven’t, I haven’t made a decision, I guess based on — it’s kind of like iterative, right? Like if they came to me and said, ‘Will you run?’ then I have to make a decision, but it’s not really anything that’s been confirmed,” she said before rushing off to a meeting.
Sources close to Crombie insist the rookie leader is not running. And while Crombie backed up my earlier intel and said publicly that the candidate would be named this week, those sources are now saying it could be early next.
FOURPLEX FALLOUT
DOUG FORD is pouring cold water on the notion of fourplexes provincewide — and dousing gasoline on critics’ claims that he’s a stone-cold NIMBY.
While announcing $1.8 billion for housing-enabling infrastructure, something that will be laid out in the budget, Ford said allowing four units as-of-right on residential lots across the province would be a “massive mistake.” Cities and towns have been allowing fourplexes (or not, like in Windsor) piecemeal, while housing advocates, the Greens, and later the Grits, have pushed the PCs to change that at the provincial level.
No dice. “It’s off the table for us,” Ford said. “You go in the little communities and start putting up four-storey, six-storey, eight-storey buildings right deep into the communities, there’s going to be a lot of shouting and screaming.”
At the Cabinet table: As this newsletter first told you earlier this week, there was chatter about the possibility of greenlighting fourplexes provincewide and that that was included in the draft version of the housing bill that Cabinet “lost their shit” over.
It was watered down after the insistence of mainly Ford, sources told me, and the Premier’s public diatribe backs that up. Housing Minister PAUL CALANDRA acknowledged fourplexes were on the table, at one point, especially because the Big City Mayors pushed for it.
Cue blowback. Not only is Ford taking flak from Oppo critics and YIMBY policy wonks — he’s also getting heat from his own PC base.
“Did they find their shit?” mused one senior civil servant.
I asked top PC operatives to describe how they felt about Ford nixing fourplexes in one word: “Cowardly.” “Lame.” “Weak sauce!” (Ok, that’s two words, but I’ll let it slide).
Some are ticked off that this gives the Grits the edge, as they just proposed fourplexes in a PMB. “We could have shut down Bonnie and taken the win. But no.” Another insider is betting that, personal stance aside, Ford is just reading the tea leaves. “The polling must be bad enough to him that he’s not going to do it.”
As for that fundraising email Ford blasted to supporters last night, boasting that they’re “getting it done on housing” with that $1.8 billion: “Really?” texted one card-carrying PC and would-be donor, incredulous. “Read the room, Dougie.”
Over on the Hill: Team Ford’s canyon-sized gap with PIERRE POILIEVRE’s camp is getting wider. Here’s what SABRINA MADDEAUX, federal Tory contender for Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and political columnist, had to say: “Fourplexes — dwellings with four units — aren’t four, six, let alone eight stories (that’d be the McMansion of all fourplexes 😂). In fact, they’re often indistinguishable from townhouses, and even many single-family homes, on the exterior.”
Liberal Housing Minister SEAN FRASER is in rare agreement. “Ontario had an opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to build more homes and take the housing crisis seriously. Instead, they chose red tape and the status quo. I sincerely hope the Ford government changes course on this decision.”
BETHLENFALVY SCOOPS HIMSELF — Can’t wait until Tuesday’s budget? Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY offered up another juicy-ish morsel at his Empire Club speech: the Ontario Infrastructure Bank is getting a new name.
Send me your best guesses on what it will be. No Banky McBankfaces, please: sabrina@qpobserver.ca, or just reply to this email.
The Q-and-A with ex-MP LISA RAITT is a fun must watch.
HAPPENING TODAY
DOUG FORD’S FRIDAY — 9:30 a.m.: Another “BFF” housing-target funding announcement with former political foe, now Hamilton Mayor ANDREA HORWATH in Steeltown. Scoop them with the housing tracker.
10 a.m.: Health Minister SYLVIA JONES is up in Barrie.
IN MEMORIAM — HAPPENING SATURDAY: Late Canadian icon BRIAN MULRONEY will be put to rest at a state funeral.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 7 p.m.: The PCs are fundraising in Kitchener-Conestoga for $1,250 a ticket. There’s no ministerial lineup posted, and regular readers will know the drill by now — that has meant DOUG FORD could make a cameo. Invite.
THE HOUSE IS OUT. Ditto committees. It’s Friday!
THURSDAY’S RUNDOWN:
Enshrined I: Bill 149, the Working for Workers Act 4.0, cleared third reading.
Enshrined II: Ditto Bill 174, the routine supply act for pre-approved spending.
Off to committee: Bill 171, the PCs changes to veterinary care, is off to be studied by the Interior committee after clearing second reading on a voice vote (meaning no major opposition).
Killed: Liberal ANDREA HAZELL’s PMB to freeze rents in 2025.
SNEAK PEEK: House Leader PAUL CALANDRA laid out the legislative agenda for next week.
CLIPPINGS
— MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY: “The future of the Ford government’s signature Highway 413 project could soon be clearer, with an agreement between Ottawa and Queen’s Park almost final — after a pause on building work lasting almost three years.” Environmental advocates are livid. Global delves in.
— FULLERTON SPILLS: Ex-Long Term Care Minister MERRILEE FULLERTON has put out the first couple chapters of her book on Substack. Shocker: She’s still calling out deaf ears of bureaucrats, too-involved lobbyists and more.
— NOT FAZED: Once more for the people at the back: “The Doug Ford government says there will be no ‘Phase 2’ for Ontario Place after documents revealed there was a proposal that would involve paving over part of Lake Ontario.” CTV reports.
— UP NORTH: “Ontario is extending a program that helps rural and northern hospitals avoid temporary ER closures for another six months.” CP has the story.
— FIGHTING FIRES: Ahead of what’s expected to be an even more intense wildfire season, “Ontario plans to give front-line wildland firefighters and pilots a $5,000 bonus and make 100 of those jobs permanent in an effort to recruit and retain more workers.”
— GASSED UP: “Ontario’s natural gas power plants were fired up more often last year than they have been in more than a decade, marking a significant regression from the province’s achievement of almost completely eliminating carbon emissions from the electricity system.” More from the Star.
— GONE FISHIN’: “A pair of electric ferries, purchased by the province for roughly $94 million, have yet to begin full service more than two years after arriving in the waters around Kingston.” CBC reports.
— HOT DOG FILES 2.0: “The Schneider family (you know them from their hot dogs) will donate 95 hectares of pristine land to a land trust for conservation and public recreation, after Wilmot Township drops its requirement to pave paradise for a parking lot.” Via The Narwhal.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
BEYOND THE BUBBLE — Ex-PC minister ROD PHILLIPS has landed on IT firm Petal’s board of directors.
SPOTTED:
A new Liberal tagline, perhaps: Not a party of opposition, but “a party of proposition”… Raps superfan NAV BHATIA in the House.
QUESTION PERIOD
THE HIGHLIGHTS: “Does he plan to fill in parts of Lake Ontario for this vanity project, yes or no?” — “What is the relationship between the secret Ontario Live agreement and the secret phase 2 plan for Ontario Place?” — “Will there be any allocations for money to lifting boil-water advisories on reserves?” — “Why is this government choosing to force almost 300 vulnerable seniors to be moved without their consent away from their homes and their families?” — “Provide adequate funding for school construction and repairs so that portables can go back to being a temporary fix instead of a permanent fixture” — “Will the Premier finally admit that he doesn’t actually care about building affordable housing?” — “Why is this Conservative government raising the rent” for daycare in Niagara? — “Stop gutting the Ontario Arts Council and Experience Ontario so the curtains don’t close on our culture sector” — “This government is prioritizing spending on for-profit surgery clinics and agency nursing companies which bleed the government dry. Why?”
Expecting the Lobbying Dispatch here? Don’t worry, you’re not missing anything. There were no new, renewed or amended registrations on record over the past 24 hours.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: (BELATEDLY) PC EFFIE TRIANTAFILOPOULOS…Mainstreet pollster-in-chief QUITO MAGGI…ON SATURDAY: ROBERT BENZIE, Queen’s Park bureau chief for the Toronto Star…Conservative strategist and commentator MELANIE PARADIS…ON SUNDAY: Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW…MARK LAWSON, ex-chief of staff to Finance Minister Bethlenfalvy, now VP of comms and external relations at Therme Group…LYNNE YELICH, former Conservative MP and mom to Ivana Yelich, the Premier’s deputy chief of staff.
🍽️ ON THE MENU: Wondering whether to pick up lunch or brown-bag it? Root vegetable goulash with egg noodles is on special in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 4 days until the Budget…10 days until the next constit break…9 days until the Sunshine List is due out…12 days until the Premier has to call a byelection for Lambton-Kent-Middlesex...145 days until the call for Milton…80 days until the Mississauga mayoral election.