Crossover candidate, commercial critique
Trump tango
ABOVE THE FOLD
A bunch more candidates are joining the ticket, including some that are raising eyebrows, while DOUG FORD is leaning into the DONALD TRUMP talk, and a pair of MPPs got kicked out of the House during a heated debate. But first, I’ve got some fiery reaction to the Liberals’ latest ad spot.
AD WATCH — COLE HOGAN, principal at GT & Co who led digital campaigns for DOUG FORD and JASON KENNEY, is back with insights into the Liberals’ newest promo. Hogan is a Tory, so he’s viewing these ads with a biased lens, but as he quipped when he sized up the NDP’s “It’s Marit” ads — he can recognize good campaigning when he sees it.
As for BONNIE CROMBIE’s ad: Hogan isn’t a fan, calling it “unoriginal” and not enough to “move the needle” for a party that’s trailing DOUG FORD and the PCs in the polls.
“Just for fun, I put the following prompt into ChatGPT: Please script a 1 minute advertisement for a political party in Ontario, Canada,” Hogan says. The results were “not an exact copy of Bonnie Crombie’s ad but it’s pretty close.”
“This ad lacks a clear message and tries to say multiple things at once. If I tried to discern a singular message, it amounts to ‘we’ll do better’ — but guess what? No one believes them. The people of Ontario remember the DALTON McGUINTY and KATHLEEN WYNNE record in government. They’re nowhere close to letting Liberals anywhere near government again any time soon.”
“The visual and rhetorical political pablum offered up in this ad sure as hell won’t fix that, or their lack of popularity.”
I asked Hogan if there was anything he did like about the ad: “She’s well lit in the ad, but almost too much, it looks like they’re trying to create a legitimate halo around her. There’s good b-roll footage too.”
Other Tories were more forgiving. Some Conservative operatives conceded that while the Liberal ad is “decent” and “good” — they aren’t convinced it will make the impact necessary to counter the multi-million-dollar attack ads from the PCs, because the Grits “don’t have the money to do anything useful with their ads.”
In case you missed it: Here’s what Liberal co-campaign director GENEVIEVE TOMNEY had to say about Crombie’s messaging.
Are you a Liberal or an NDPer with thoughts about the PC ads? Send me your hot takes, on or off the record: sabrina@qpobserver.ca. Disses welcome.
CANDIDATE TRACKER — Have the PCs found their contender in battleground Eglinton-Lawrence?
Multiple sources tell me MICHELLE COOPER, executive director of the PC Party Fund, has been making calls about her potential candidacy in the hopes of hanging on to the riding where incumbent ROBIN MARTIN isn’t running again. Cooper didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Eglinton-Lawrence is a top target seat for the PCs. 2022 was a close call — Martin held on to the seat by just 524 votes — and with Liberal star candidate VINCE GASPARRO already pounding the pavement, time is ticking for the PCs to lock in their candidate so they can get to door-knocking, too. Get the lay of the land.
Meanwhile, in the Liberal corner: Former MP and heavyweight organizer ANDREW KANIA — who ran for a Conservative nomination in 2019 — is making a comeback and will be nominated as the provincial candidate for Brampton West.
“What are they thinking,” said one card-carrying Grit.
But Kania isn’t the only crossover candidate on the Liberal roster: TESS PRENDERGAST, a local Orangeville councillor and teacher who ran for the NDP in 2022, is vying for Dufferin-Caledon.
Also joining the ticket: CLAYTON MOORE, who chairs a neighbouring federal riding association, is running in Waterloo…LORNA JEAN EDMONDS, a higher education consultant who’s held senior roles at several universities, is vying for Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.
Returning PCs: STEPHEN LECCE (King-Vaughan)…ZEE HAMID (Milton)…DONNA SKELLY (Flamborough-Glanbrook). Check out the other candidates so far in our handy TRACKER.
HAPPENING TODAY
9 a.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES is in the Media Studio to talk about her special cash-for-access motion that’s up for debate this afternoon (keep reading for details).
10 a.m.: Labour Minister DAVID PICCINI is in Etobicoke (“the great state thereof,” as the Premier might say) alongside his PA PATRICE BARNES and Associate Women’s Minister CHARMAINE WILLIAMS.
6:30 p.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES will be on the South Lawn for a vigil to mark the beginning of “16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence.”
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 5:30 p.m.: BONNIE CROMBIE is headlining a big-ticket fundraiser in Toronto. Tickets go for $1,500 a pop. Invite.
— 6 p.m.: The PCs are hosting a $1,000-a-plate event tonight in Toronto. No ministerial lineup, which regular readers will know means DOUG FORD could make a cameo.
ON THE ORDER PAPER
On the fast track — The Ford government continues to ram its legislation through due process, dousing gasoline on the rumour that the House could rise earlier than scheduled on December 12.
The latest: House Leader STEVE CLARK will move a time-allocation motion this morning speeding up proceedings for Bill 223 — Solicitor General MICHAEL KERZNER’s bill that officially bans safe drug consumption sites, cracks down on re-VINning and bars sex offenders from changing their names — and Bill 227, Minister MIKE HARRIS’s red-tape reduction package.
Those bills would skip the committee stage — when the public gets to have their say — and go straight for one hour of third-reading debate (instead of the usual six-and-a-half hours) before a final vote.
Later on, it’s Oppo Day #4: NDP Leader MARIT STILES is sticking to her theme of cash-for-access and will move a motion calling on the government “to prohibit Ministers from accepting personal benefits connected directly or indirectly to their duties and to end cash-for-access in Ontario.” Don’t forget: Motions are non-binding but carry symbolic weight, and the NDP tends to use these special debates to force the PCs to vote down matters that make them look bad.
The late late show: PC DAISY WAI will move second reading on her private member’s Bill 217, to proclaim a Retiree Experience Awareness Day.
MONDAY’S RUNDOWN:
Passed I: Bike lanes are going the way of the dodo now that Bill 212 has cleared third and final reading, thanks to the PC majority and a time-allocation motion, and received Royal Assent. (Ayes 66…Nays 27) Reaction.
Passed II: Bill 194, the government’s cybersecurity and AI legislation, passed on a voice vote.
Tabled: Bill 228, from Natural Resources Minister GRAYDON SMITH, which deals with wildfires, hazardous oil and gas wells, attracting more land surveyors and the use of commercial-scale geologic carbon storage. Backgrounder.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
9 a.m.: At Interior, the PCs Bill 186 — which would protect farming businesses’ “agritourism” ventures by clearing them of any liability, so long as they have proper warning signs in place — is scheduled for public hearings.
Social Policy is dealing with committee business.
COCKTAIL CHATTER
RTOERO, the Retired Teachers of Ontario, is hosting a morning reception in the Dining Room. In the afternoon, the Alliance for Healthier Communities is hosting in Room 230, followed by Mental Health Partners in the evening. Tonight, Pets Canada takes over the Dining Room.