A Tory comms pro sizes up NDP ads
Ford's October surprise
ABOVE THE FOLD
The Premier delivered an unexpected newser, committees are back in full swing, unions are railing against staffing changes in long-term care and there’s more early election signs — but before all that: I asked political rivals to rate each other’s ad game as the parties rev up to full-on campaign mode.
SPOT CHECK — COLE HOGAN, a principal at GT & Co who led digital campaigns for DOUG FORD and JASON KENNEY, quipped that he may be biased, “but I’m not so far gone that I can’t recognize good campaigning when I see it.”
That would be the NDP’s new “It’s Marit” ads that are being splashed online, streaming services, podcasts and more.
Go deeper: Here’s NDP campaign director DAVE CLARK’s ad strategy.
It’s a stark contrast to the promos the PCs have been running for months, either attacking Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE as a tax-and-spend JUSTIN TRUDEAU-loving elitist (targeting her turf in the 905) — or featuring a folksy DOUG FORD talking to average joe’s and very humanly admitting that “you can’t always get it right” — alluding to his steady string of policy backtracks, including most infamously on the Greenbelt.
Team Crombie says their new leader-focused ad will hit the airwaves around the time the House reconvenes.
As for the NDP’s latest spot, it’s more about MARIT STILES than attacking Ford — and that’s mostly a good thing, said Hogan, especially because public-opinion polls suggest most people don’t know enough about the relatively rookie Oppo leader to form an opinion. But those that do tend to like her.
“The NDP do need to introduce Marit, but they need to do so substantively, not with a claim that she just cares more than the other person. Voters can’t quantify caring.”
The good: “The ad is designed well, it’s upbeat, moves fast visually, keeps you engaged…and the message is clear. I’ll give the NDP points there, but the NDP usually always has good web and graphic design.”
The bad: “However, the content and messaging is lacking. The assumption behind the ad is that Marit Stiles cares more than Doug Ford, which reminds me of Trudeau’s recent interview with NATHANIEL ERSKINE-SMITH where Trudeau said knowing a leader’s values ‘is not just important, it’s ultimately sort of the only thing.’ I don’t think this is true. Ontarians and Canadians care more about what their politicians get done, and as of last August, 44 per cent of Ontarians described Ford as ‘friendly’ and 39 per cent said he ‘gets things done.’ To paint Ford as uncaring misses the mark, and doesn't mesh with what people in the province actually think about him.”
The ugly: Hogan also crunched the numbers to show that — surprise, surprise! — the PCs are out-spending their opponents big time. “The NDP ads won’t be effective because they’re lacking a significant ad spend behind them,” Hogan explained.
“In the last 90 days, the Ontario PCs have spent $40,000, the Ontario NDP has spent $19,000, and the Ontario Liberals have spent $2,600. The opposition parties will need to increase their ad spends in order to be seen by a wide segment of the population.”
Stay tuned to find out what political foes think about the PC and Liberal ads.
MEA CULPA! An earlier version of this story stated that the It’s Marit ads were streaming on Netflix based on information from the party. But Netflix says that’s not actually the case.
FORD HOLDS FORTH — Choice quotes from the Premier’s surprise cameo at the Mercedes-Benz incubator announcement, which the Press Gallery wasn’t given the heads-up about. That meant no Q-and-A with reporters, but it was a buzzy affair nonetheless. Highlights:
Ford comes for China: “When it comes to the critical minerals, we have the largest mining sector in the world. We’re working on getting up to the Ring of Fire. And I always have a rule: You’re welcome to our critical minerals, because right now, China has the market cornered, but they don’t have Ontario cornered….We have the competitive business environment needed to attract game-changing global investments.”
Corporate welfare, kinda: “We’ve never, ever raised the tax. We have a simple theory in our government: You put money back into people’s pockets, they’re going to go out and stimulate the economy…the exact same thing goes for companies. You put money back in the company’s pockets, they’re going to invest in their people, into their technology, into infrastructure…And guess what? We’re never raising taxes.”
1-800-Premier: Ford also gave out his cellphone number again — something that’s caused headaches for his staff, and opaqueness for the rest of us. “If you need any help, just call me on my cellphone, text me, and I’ll be able to get back to you…Pull up on the internet, ‘Doug Ford’s cell number,’ it pops up, and just text me.”
Moment of levity: Ford acknowledged he tends to get attention when he goes off-script, for better or worse. “The toughest job, more than me and anyone out there, is my teleprompter guy RICO because I’m all over the map right now.”
HAPPENING TODAY
9 a.m.: Agriculture Minister ROB FLACK is up in Straffordville.
10 a.m.: Government officials will host a technical briefing about the review of troubled Children’s Aid Societies that’s been lacking details such as scope and timelines ever since the Premier promised it. Featuring LINDA CHIHAB, assistant deputy minister for Children, Community and Social Services, and SANDRA BICKFORD, a director at the ministry.
10 a.m.: CUPE reps are in the Media Studio to sound the alarm over the Ford government’s staffing changes in long-term care that is “paving the way for permanent employment of lower-trained workers.” I had the scoop last month. Featuring MICHAEL HURLEY, head of the union’s Ontario Council of Hospital Unions, and PAM HEYER, a personal support worker.
10:30 a.m.: Solicitor General MICHAEL KERZNER is in Aylmer.
11 a.m.: Associate Women’s Minister CHARMAINE WILLIAMS makes an announcement in Cambridge.
FUNDRAISING WATCH
6 p.m.: The PCs are shilling for $1,000 a pop in Toronto. There’s no ministerial lineup posted, and regular readers will know the drill by now — that means DOUG FORD could make a cameo. Invite.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
9 a.m.: Bill 190 — the fifth Working for Workers Act — goes for another round of public hearings. On the witness roster: Police Association of Ontario, Ontario Road Builders Association, Workers Action Centre, RESCON, Parkdale Community Legal Services. Full lineup.
Recall: The bill scraps sick notes, improves health coverage for wildland firefighters, boosts fines for scofflaw employers and ghost jobs, makes it easier for high schoolers to pursue the skilled trades and mandates period products on construction sites.
1 p.m.: Over at the Heritage committee, Sport Minister NEIL LUMSDEN and Tourism, Culture and Gaming Minister STAN CHO are front and centre to talk about — drumroll, please — their Ministries’ spending estimates.
CANDIDATE TRACKER
We called it! Agriculture Minister ROB FLACK (Elgin-Middlesex-London) is the latest Tory on the board for the next election. Flack was automatically acclaimed as the candidate last night. I suggested as much last month.
The ticket is filling up — find out who’s who in our CANDIDATE TRACKER.
Meanwhile, another early election clue: The Grits are on the hunt for local canvassers.
CLIPPINGS
— IN DC UNIVERSE: Housing expert MIKE MOFFATT ran the numbers — “In 2022, the last year we have data for, Ontario municipalities collected $4 billion in development charges, but spent less than $3 billion of those funds. In total, Ontario municipalities collectively have over $10 billion in unspent DCs.” That cash goes toward housing-enabling infrastructure like sewage and road systems.
— BOOZE NEWS: “Convenience stores will soon be able to sell fortified wines like port and sherry alongside the various alcoholic beverages already being offered at thousands of retail locations across the province, CBC Toronto has learned.”
— LOSE THE LEASE: “Ontario’s three opposition parties have vowed to rip up the Ford government’s Ontario Place deal — a move that would involve paying the private spa giant Therme millions of dollars — if they win the next provincial election.” Global News reports.
— BOOBY TRAP: “Ontario women in their 40s can now begin booking their own mammograms, with Canada’s most populous province joining the growing ranks of jurisdictions making breast cancer screening more readily available to a younger age group.” A warning from the experts: “Screening is not without risk…We do know that there will be some false positives that arise out of this. We’re estimating that number to be somewhere in the 500 range.” More from the Globe.
— SHOTS FIRED: With all babies in Ontario soon to be eligible for RSV vaccines, the Star offers an explainer.
— ALL ABOARD: “After more than a month without buses at two Ontario school boards, a tentative deal has been reached, potentially bringing an end to weeks of transportation chaos for parents and their children.” Global News reports.
— MONKEY WRENCH: Also from Global News, the latest on the PEGO strike: Union brass NIHAR BHATT “said he could begin removing some of his members from key projects, including Highway 413 and the Bradford Bypass, potentially throwing sand in the gears of projects the Ford government made central to its election promise. ‘Again, we don’t want to be here, I will that, this is not our favourite thing to do,” he said. “Our favourite thing to do is to engineer and to build things.’”
— A BRIGHT SPOT: “Videos of a meteor streaking across the skies of southern Ontario have surfaced and small bits of the outer space rock may have made it to land, one astronomy professor says.” Enjoy.
Expecting the Lobby List here? Don’t worry, you’re not missing anything — there were no changes on record over the past 24 hours.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: PC RUDY CUZZETTO (Mississauga-Lakeshore).
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Pork adobo with rice and vegetables.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 12 days until the House reconvenes.
Do you have a cause worth promoting? Want MPP eyes on your proposal? Share your message with our influential audience in the most-read newsletter at Queen’s Park. Find out about advertising opportunities by reaching out to qpobserver@substack.com, or just reply to this email.