E-Day is coming

Probably

Jan 22, 2025

ABOVE THE FOLD

Breathe a sigh of relief: It’s unlikely an election will be called today — but the next two weeks are looking mighty fine for a writ drop.*

Case in point: More news outlets are reporting that January 29 or February 5 are the best bets for an early election call. That tracks with what my sources have been saying. Elections are typically called on Wednesdays and held on the fifth Thursday after that, which would make E-Day February 27 or March 6.

The snap-vote signs are there — literally. Solicitor General MICHAEL KERZNER has put up a bunch of billboards in York Centre, including at a busy intersection at Bathurst and Wilson. More than a handful of PC MPPs and Ministers tell me they’ve either secured or are in the process of securing campaign offices (a trickier feat for some given the tight timing). Many are working on “campaign plans” to be reviewed by the PC Party, which has set up its own campaign headquarters near the Leg. A little birdie tells me the Liberals have also returned to their previous campaign offices.

Did you get the memo? I got my hands on the leaked memo DOUG FORD’s chief of staff PATRICK SACKVILLE sent to the other chiefs of staff on Monday, warning of the “existential threats” posed by DONALD TRUMP’s latest tariff threat.

“Make no mistake: this is only the beginning of what will be a long, hard fight,” Sackville wrote, adding that the government needs a fresh mandate to provide financial aid and leadership to Ontarians.

“The stronger the mandate the better.”

Between the lines: Ontario’s response to Trump’s tariffs is shaping up to be the ballot-box question, at least that’s the view from the PCs perch.

Indeed: Ford has two jaunts to Washington scheduled in February, which will make for an interesting dynamic if he’s stateside during the provincial campaign. It’s not lost on some of Ford’s advisers that he’ll be looking “very Prime Ministerial” and “Premier-like” during that trip. Naturally, Ford continues to lean into his “Captain Canada” role, which, for now at least, seems to be working for him. He even penned an op-ed in the Washington Post that pumps up his pitch for “Fortress Am-Can.”

But, and it’s a biggie: NDP Leader MARIT STILES and Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE have said that while they won’t sign-off on a blank cheque, they’re willing to work with the majority-enjoying Ford government on a tariff-fighting stimulus package, and that an early election is unnecessary, self-serving, and a way for Ford to get out ahead of the ongoing RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt saga. Ford counters that voters — not his political rivals — should get to decide on the best course of action.

The window is closing: If Ford doesn’t trigger an election by mid-March, my sources suggest it might not happen this spring after all.

Still, all political parties have been going full-tilt when it comes to campaign prep, including nominating candidates at lightning speed and shoring up fundraising efforts. But they may end up having to appoint candidates en masse, or risk running a half-full slate, as no party has all their candidates locked in yet. (But they’re getting close — here’s a running list of contenders so far.)

What are you looking forward to most during the campaign? How about the least? What stories do you want to see this newsletter cover on the campaign trail? Send me your burning questions, wildest electoral predictions and good ol’ fashioned gossip at sabrina@qpobserver.ca, or just reply to this email.

(Yes, I said* drop, not drawn up — you know, like when a musician drops an album. With no apologies to the electoral purists out there!)

HAPPENING TODAY

10 a.m.: Trade Minister VIC FEDELI makes an announcement in Toronto.

12:45 p.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES will speak at the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation’s Safe at School Summit in Toronto. Featuring OSSTF President KAREN LITTLEWOOD. At 2:30 p.m.: Green MIKE SCHREINER addresses the summit.

FUNDRAISING WATCH

6:30 p.m.: PC DONNA SKELLY heads to Burlington to host a $1,000-a-head dinner. Invite.

ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT

Justice Policy meets behind closed doors to continue its study on intimate partner violence. The Interior is also dealing with committee business.

A message from Ontario’s Universities:

Building Tomorrow’s Industries Means Building Talent Today

Ontario’s universities are vital to the province’s economic growth and security, preparing skilled graduates to meet the demands in critical sectors such as automotive and EV, advanced manufacturing, life sciences and more. It is now more critical than ever for the provincial government to invest in Ontario’s universities in order to ensure we have the talent and innovation that Ontario needs to prosper – learn more.

CLIPPINGS

— POLL WATCH: PC pollster NICK KOUVALIS is raining on the Liberals’ parade, countering recent polls that suggest the Grits are within 10 points of the PCs with his own numbers: The PCs are sitting pretty at 47 per cent support, trailed by the Liberals with 23 per cent, the NDP with 19 per cent, and 7 per cent for the Greens.

— BIG CAPS ON CAMPUS: “Centennial College will suspend more than a quarter of its programs as it faces a sharp decline in enrolment due to the federal government’s new limits on international students.” The Star has the story.

— HOME CARE WOES PERSIST: A new report from CUPE lays out the challenges with the home health care system. CityNews reports.

— CIVIC CLASH: TVO’s John Michael McGrath delves into “Why AMO is getting into election advertising.”

— ONTARIO TO THE RESCUE (OR NOT): “Just over a week after Ontario Premier DOUG FORD held a news conference to announce the province was planning to send firefighters and waterbombers to California, it turns out a formal ask hasn't come. And doesn't seem likely at all now.” Via Global News.

— HIGHWAYS, HIGHWAYS, HIGHWAYS: “If all goes to plan, a deal could be ratified as early as June between the Ontario government and one of several First Nations in an area south of Sudbury where the four-laning of Highway 69 needs to be finished.” CBC has the story.

LOBBY LIST

Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:

Mustapha Khamissa, Rubicon Strategy: Amazon Corporate LLC, Doornekamp Construction Ltd., Toronto Wholesale Produce Association and Toronto Farmers Association
Christopher Froggatt, Loyalist Public Affairs: Wohler Canada Inc.
Elizabeth Wagdin, Global Public Affairs: Canadian Steel Producers Association, Mother Parkers Tea & Coffee, Zipcar Canada Inc.
Kelly Baker, StrategyCorp: Mondelez Canada
Chris Benedetti, Sussex Strategy Group: Atlantic Power Corporation

In-house organizations: Ontario Society of Professional Engineers — Pembina Institute — Amazon Web Services.

Refer a friend

🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Pork adobo with rice and vegetables.

⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 40 days until the House reconvenes.

Got a tip? Document to leak? Staffer on the move? Birthday or anniversary coming up? I want to hear from you, and I’ll keep you anonymous. Reach out to sabrina@qpobserver.ca, or hit me up directly:

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Cover image: Getty