Exclusive: Crombie is tops, Ford is Teflon
And strange bedfellows
ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Observer — POLL WATCH: BONNIE CROMBIE is leading the pack of Liberal leadership contenders, while Premier DOUG FORD and the PCs are still in a honeymoon phase with the electorate. Meanwhile, Oppo parties are jockeying for second-place supremacy.
That’s the upshot from fresh polling from Counsel Public Affairs pollster ADRIAN MACAULAY, who was in the field June 6 to June 8, gauging 1,323 Ontarians online about their thoughts on the state of Ontario politics and policies.
By the numbers:
When it comes to the race for Grit captain, the popular Mississauga Mayor is ahead of the game. For starters, Crombie is high-profile compared to the competition — nearly half, 48 per cent, of respondents said they had heard of her, compared to just 29 per cent who are aware of YASIR NAQVI, the next most-known candidate.
Another 24 per cent know about NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, with TED HSU and ADIL SHAMJI following closely behind at 23 per cent and 21 per cent awareness, respectively.
Carving out the folks who indicated they would be voting Liberal, Crombie is by far the favourite. A whopping 41 per cent of decided Liberal supporters would consider casting their ballot for Crombie, should she take the party crown on December 2.
That also tracks with Crombie’s money-making prowess — she’s so far out-fundraised her rivals by a major margin.
In a distant second is Naqvi (19 per cent), followed by Hsu (16 per cent), Erskine-Smith (15 per cent) and Shamji (14 per cent).
Caveat: These respondents aren’t necessarily card-carrying Grits, who will actually pick the next leader via the new one-member-one-vote system in late fall.
That said: “The pool that [Crombie] is fishing from is decided voters — it’s not necessarily who has a membership. But, when you have a bigger pond, you can catch more fish,” said MICHAEL RAS, senior vice-president at Counsel PA.
Horse race: Still, 2026 is shaping up to be an uphill slog for the third-place, unrecognized and (for now) leader-less Grits — but it may be even tougher for the Official Opposition New Democrats.
Premier DOUG FORD and the PCs are still enjoying a honeymoon phase with the electorate following last spring’s second majority win — and despite a steady stream of hot-potato policies since, such as the Greenbelt carve-up, boost to private health clinics, strong mayors and King’s Counsel designations, to name a few.
Per Counsel’s survey: It’s steady as she goes. 39 per cent of decided voters would cast their ballots for the ruling Tories today, roughly the same share of votes they took last June. They reign supreme in all pockets of the province — except in the North, and it’s a close call in the 416.
The race for second place: The PCs may be capitalizing, in part, from a weakened opposition. New Democrats and Liberals continue to jockey for second place — and depending on who and where you are in the province, it could be anybody’s game.
Overall: 27 per cent say they’d vote Liberal and 23 per cent would pick the NDP.
In the North, the NDP has the edge. Ditto among younger folks aged 18 to 24, and especially women 18 to 34.
Over in Toronto, the Grits could be clawing back to dominance. Despite a narrow lead for the PCs in the city, the Liberals are more popular than the New Democrats. The same goes for Eastern Ontario.
The big picture: “On the NDP side, without the benefit of having a [contested] leadership race, they just didn’t generate that buzz,” said Ras. “And even though we’re a long way away from having a leadership race completed on the Liberal side, just the buzz right now, the attention being paid, is helping the Liberals’ brand.”
Rounding out the ticket is MIKE SCHREINER and the Greens with seven per cent support. Another four per cent would vote for another party.
Still, there’s plenty of time to turn it around as we’re a long ways away from the vote in 2026 — and that’s a lifetime in politics. The risk is that the Ford government has bitten off an ambitious chunk of policies — on housing affordability, transportation and beyond — but for now, people are still willing to give them a shot.
“I think Ontarians are in that ‘prove-it-to-me’ stage. Having a plan is better than no plan, even if they’re still a bit unsure of the plan,” said Ras. “The risky part of that is if those plans don’t bear fruit by 2026, you’ve got an electoral problem.”
But wait, there’s more: Stay tuned for Part Two of this polling exclusively in tomorrow’s newsletter — featuring an in-depth look at how the public feels about a slew of Ford government initiatives, including expanding for-profit health care, making it rain for EVs, going nuclear, bulldozing the Greenbelt, empowering strong mayors and more.
HAPPENING TODAY
9:30 a.m.: NDP captain MARIT STILES is at the Queensway Carleton Hospital with byelection contender MELISSA COENRAAD (Kanata-Carleton) to talk about ER closures and a lack of family physicians in Ottawa. Also on hand: Local NDPers CHANDRA PASMA and JOEL HARDEN.
11 a.m.: Health Minister SYLVIA JONES is making an announcement in Ottawa.
12 p.m.: First Nations leaders are rallying against the Ford government’s mining agenda outside the Ministry of Mines offices on Grosvenor Street. Featuring folks from Kitchenuhmaykoosib Inninuwug, Grassy Narrows, Wapekeka and Neskantaga First Nations and more.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 2 p.m.: Fore! PC BRIAN SAUNDERSON is hitting the links in support of his Simcoe-Grey riding association. Get on the green for $350 a pop. Invite.
7 p.m.: Liberal byelection heavyweight KAREN McCRIMMON is headlining a meet-and-greet at a private residence in Kanata and Campeau for $100 apiece. RSVP.
CLIPPINGS
— STRANGE BEDFELLOWS: That “common ground” Premier DOUG FORD and Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW vowed to find after butting heads during the mayoral campaign has come to pass — and it’s not looking so good for Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU. The pair teamed up on a joint statement Wednesday to demand more federal cash to help the city’s refugee and asylum seekers, many of whom are being forced to live on the streets. Details from the Star.
Meanwhile, the summer of funding announcements continues: Fresh off a caucus retreat in the capital, the Premier doled out $330 million for pediatric health care.
— WHAT LIBERALS ARE READING: NATE ERSKINE-SMITH’s pitch on why he’s the best pick to lead the Liberals’ generational change. His column follows BONNIE CROMBIE’s op-ed responding to his comments about her candidacy, which many viewed as ageist. Erskine-Smith has also been making a play for the party’s youth factions, previously penning a column on how he’ll woo them back.
— LRT WOES: “For the third day straight Wednesday, technical issues shut down the light-rail transit that serves the nation’s capital. The latest in a series of problems for the Confederation Line led a visiting Premier Doug Ford to describe the system as ‘a mess.’” The Globe has the story.
— A TROUBLING LINK: “Mercury exposure in Grassy Narrows First Nation has been linked to the community’s high youth suicide attempt rate, which is three times greater than that of other First Nations in Canada, a new study has found.” NDPer SOL MAMAKWA and First Nations leaders were at Queen’s Park to discuss the grim findings Wednesday. CTV reports.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — STAFFING UP — In Labour Minister MONTE McNAUGHTON’s camp, ADAM ABER goes from executive assistant to an adviser on policy, public appointments and agencies. CAITLYN DREXLER has also signed on as a policy adviser, NOAH HUGHES is executive assistant and GIANCARLO DA-RE is special assistant.
ON THE CIVIL SERVICE SIDE — JEFFREY GRAHAM is the newest assistant deputy minister on Health and Long-Term Care. He’ll also serve as chief administrative officer.
Over at ServiceOntario, TEEPU KHAWJA is now an assistant deputy minister on risk management strategy under the Ministry of Public and Business Service Delivery. Khawja previously headed up emergency management at Treasury Board.
SPOTTED: TED HSU doing a shot of hot sauce at that U of T Young Liberals wing night featuring leadership candidates:
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Philip Dewan, Counsel Public Affairs: Toyota Canada
Peter Van Loan, Aird & Berlis: Nideva Properties, South Georgetown Landowners Group
Mike Ceci, Santis Health: Canadian Biosimilars Forum
Stephen Warner, Jenni Byrne + Associates: Toronto Business Development Center
Davin Shinedling, Jenni Byrne + Associates: Ontario School Boards' Insurance Exchange, Stewart Title
In-house organizations: Ontario Hospital Association — Chamber of Marine Commerce — Investment Industry Association of Canada — Mastercard Canada — Trent University — Rick Hansen Foundation.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Liberal MPP STEPHEN BLAIS (Orléans)…KATIE HEELIS, VP at Enterprise Canada’s health practice.
⌛ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 7 days until byelections in Scarborough—Guildwood and Kanata—Carleton…67 days until the House reconvenes…47 days to sign up for the Liberal leadership race…135 days until the Liberal leadership contest.