EXCLUSIVE: Jeff Lehman says "never say never"
Ex-mayor opens up about Crombie’s chances—and his own
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ABOVE THE FOLD
The Premiers are huddling with MARK CARNEY in Muskoka for Day 2 of the Council of the Federation meeting — but first: I’ve got some juicy intel on another potential BONNIE CROMBIE challenger.
IN LIBERAL LAND — Tensions are rising. Group chats are lighting up. Draft campaigns are quietly taking shape. And while MPPs may be playing nice on social media, behind the scenes, party insiders are already gaming out what happens after the leadership review — and who might step in if Crombie doesn’t survive.
With September’s AGM fast approaching, would-be successors are quietly testing the waters — and JEFF LEHMAN is the latest name to float to the surface.
The review may be a regularly scheduled post-election affair, but after the Liberals’ good-news-bad-news showing in February’s election campaign, the murmurs are turning into movements.
Yes, the Grits increased their share of the popular vote, boosted their bench strength and clinched more seats and recognized status — but they still didn’t knock the NDP out of Official Opposition (thanks in large part to their efficient orange vote) and Crombie failed to win her own seat — or any seat — in her old mayoral stomping grounds of Mississauga. Naturally, the knives are out.
The push for a change at the top is coming loudest from NATE ERSKINE-SMITH and some of his most loyal supporters. But not all the discontent is coming from the NES crew — a growing number of Liberal operatives are preparing for a possible post-Crombie race, should she fall short of the support needed at the AGM.
Regular readers will know by now: Crombie needs just 50 per cent plus one to survive, but the unofficial cutoff in Canadian politics tends to be 66 per cent. And if she misses the mark? The party could be plunged into yet another leadership contest.
Enter Lehman. In a one-on-one yesterday evening, the former Barrie Mayor and 2022 Liberal candidate said he’s not out to topple Crombie — but he’s not ruling out a run if the gig opens up.
“I would never say never,” Lehman told me. “I’d consider it if there was a leadership race in the future…I’ve got a great job in Muskoka [as district council chair], I’ve made a commitment here, and I’m continuing to focus on that. But if there was a race in the future — I’d look at it for sure.”
That kind of diplomatic answer may sound cagey, but in this moment, it’s meaningful. While most would-be contenders tend to keep their ambitions quiet — especially with the leader still in the job — there’s a notable disconnect between what politicians say publicly and what’s happening behind closed doors.
Multiple organizers, including some party heavyweights, have started building the bones of a Lehman leadership campaign, including quietly working Grit circles and gauging support from potential delegates.
One senior campaign operative isn’t being shy about it: “I’m telling anyone who could be a delegate to vote against Bonnie because Jeff is just so much better. He’s the best person to take on DOUG FORD and the PCs. Let Nate keep digging himself into a hole. Jeff is the smart choice.”
Another supporter said that while there is plenty to celebrate about the 2025 campaign, Crombie “just doesn’t have what it takes to bring Ford down” — and that Erskine-Smith, despite coming in second in the last leadership race, would be an even riskier bet. Some MPs are reportedly even complaining to the Prime Minister about Erskine-Smith’s latest salvo. “Nate’s proven time and time again that he’s not a team player. So how can anyone expect him to actually lead a team?”
Lehman may not want to fan the flames — but the backroom buzz around him is growing. He says he’s a fan of Crombie, but not so much the infighting that’s roiling Liberal land.
“I’m a supporter of Bonnie. I consider her a friend. I supported her all the way along, and it’s a little disappointing what’s going on right now,” he said.
Lehman also dished about what it was like to lose in the closest provincial race in 2022, the shifting political landscape, what the Liberals could do better, whether he’s hanging out at the Premier’s cottage in Muskoka and more.
If there is another Ontario Liberal leadership race, would you run? “I’d consider it if it was a leadership race in the future. But I want to say to you very clearly: I’m a longtime friend and a supporter of Bonnie’s…So I’m hopeful that there won’t be a leadership race — but I would never say never.”
You said you’re disappointed in what’s going on right now — that is, the pressure from Erskine-Smith and other anti-Crombie crusaders. What do you make of all this? “Well, I’m an outsider, right? I mean, I’ve got a role as the chair of the District of Muskoka. It’s a non-partisan role, and I’ve been doing that for the last several years, trying to get good things done up here. So as an outsider, I just don’t think infighting ever benefits the party. If there ever were to be another leadership race, I don’t think it’s going to be like the last one anyway. So as somebody watching from the outside, I don’t think this helps.”
If Crombie doesn’t survive the review, what would that say about the state of the Ontario Liberal Party? “Bonnie herself has said there are aspects of the last election campaign that she wasn’t happy with, and how it turned out, but there’s also a lot of progress that the party made. So I don’t know that what’s going on right now represents a broader sentiment. We’ll see what happens at the convention, but I think there’s maybe more agendas going on right now than there is a broader conversation around the party. And from what I’ve heard from Bonnie, she’s committed to continuing those conversations.”
You and Crombie are both former mayors. What edge does that give you when it comes to provincial politics? “Municipal work has always been the pinnacle of pragmatic politics. We have an expression: There’s no Liberal or Conservative way to snowplow a road.”
Back in 2022 you lost by just 296 votes in Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, currently held by Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY. It was the tightest race in the province. What was it like to come so close in your own hometown? “You sort of take it both ways. On one level, it’s even more heartbreaking to be honest, because it’s like 296 votes — you know, one vote per poll. Maybe that was one extra door-knock or one different event or one different position. It makes you question: isn’t there something we could have done? But…we pulled 19 points better than the Ontario Liberal Party in a Conservative riding. That’s a really good result in a tough riding. So I don’t look back on it with regret.”
What stood out to you from that campaign? “On a human level, we had all these young volunteers, many of whom were college and university students in Barrie and Simcoe County. They were really into the campaign, and they continued to be very supportive of me and turned into friends in many cases. I feel really lucky that we got to run that kind of a campaign.”
I hear you that it’s a big if at this point — but what would you do differently in your approach to leadership? “I will tell you that the battle between populism and pragmatism for the political culture of Canada, and Ontario, and my hometown, and the district I serve in Muskoka — that’s really important. I think the issues in a future leadership race would be quite different than they are today. I mean, we’ve already seen what political people would call earthquakes in the last 12 months. I’m very concerned about the ongoing impact of populism at all levels of government. I disagree so firmly with it as an approach to so-called leadership. I think there was a bit of a backlash against that in the federal election, and I took a lot of heart in that — I’d been very disillusioned with the rise of populism.”
You’re in Muskoka, where the First Ministers are meeting. What’s the vibe — and have you been invited to DOUG FORD’s cottage? Not to the cottage [laughs] but I am participating in some events at the Council of the Federation. I would put this place up against any other location in our country — obviously for its natural beauty and its summer relaxed vibe. So it’s a great place to have serious, one-on-one conversations. Premier Ford picked this location — we know he loves Muskoka, we know he knows it well. He didn’t need any help from local leaders to be convinced to do that. But I was really pleased to see the PM choose to come, especially because he’s still building his relationship with each of the Premiers and the Territorial leaders — and that’s a very personal kind of relationship-building. This is a great place to do it. I hope he has the chance to have one-on-one conversations sitting in a Muskoka chair overlooking the river.”
Final fun one — your social media handle is @Jedi_Lehman —which Star Wars character would you be? “Come on, every Gen X boy either wants to be Luke Skywalker or Han. I totally wanted to be Han Solo — he had the coolest ship, the coolest lines. I wanted to fly an X-Wing on the trench run, but most of all, I wanted to do the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs.”