How Bonnie Crombie lost the leadership

Plus: Labour pains

Sep 15, 2025

ABOVE THE FOLD

BYE BYE BONNIE — Heading into the Ontario Liberals’ AGM, BONNIE CROMBIE thought she’d coast to around 70 per cent support in her leadership review. That wasn’t a number plucked out of thin air — it’s what senior strategists ALEXIS LEVINE and TOM ALLISON were feeding her, telling organizers they’d land closer to 75.

The problem? For weeks, regional organizers warned Levine and Allison the math didn’t add up. They were brushed off as “dead wrong” — some tell me they felt “belittled” and “humiliated” — and told to trust the war room. “They were confident and no one was going to tell them otherwise,” one organizer told QPO. “It was the leadership race all over again. They promised a first-ballot romp and she barely limped across the finish line.”

Many organizers say they only signed up because they were assured Levine and Allison were sidelined. Instead, the pair roared back in recent weeks, with Levine appointed chief scrutineer and Allison making cameos on Team Crombie strategy calls. Their track records didn’t always inspire confidence — Allison has KATHLEEN WYNNE and JOHN TORY victories under his belt, but also ANA BAILÁO’s mayoral flame-out and DIPIKA DAMERLA’s defeat in Mississauga.

“These are not people who like to be told they’re wrong, and they based delegate tracking on vibes instead of data,” another senior organizer said. (Case in point: This leaked Mainstreet poll suggesting paltry support for Crombie).

“Hundreds of delegates like Bonnie but can’t stand her team,” one insider said. “I was told no CHAD [WALSH, co-campaign director], no Tom, no Alexis. That’s the only reason I signed up.”

By the weekend, regional organizers said the lists were “40 to 50 per cent wrong.” Said one delegate: “They handed me a list of Bonnie supporters that included people who told me to my face they wouldn’t back her. The data was trash.”

The “trash” data meant the campaign didn’t clock the real problem: nearly 400 paid delegates never showed up, triggering a wave of alternate delegates being promoted.

Even then, party brass didn’t seem to see the danger. “Bonnie was told something else the whole weekend. Then she was shocked when she saw the real number. No one prepared her.”

THE FALL — As most readers will know by now, Crombie scraped by with a lukewarm 57 per cent in the leadership review. Technically, she needed 51 per cent to survive. But in Canadian politics the real cutoff is 66 per cent — anything less is a political death sentence, whether it’s drawn out or not (just ask ex-PC leader JOHN TORY).

The count dragged with multiple delays. Behind closed doors, sources say Crombie was visibly upset. In her post-vote remarks, she admitted the number wasn’t what she wanted but vowed to stay on. She even claimed caucus support — but MPP TYLER WATT quickly told CityNews’s RICHARD SOUTHERN she hadn’t even asked. And it may have been for the best: I hear caucus was waffling, and insiders doubt she’d have secured their unanimous backing anyway.

“It’s ridiculous, she lost — and she still wants to keep her job?” one MPP fumed.

By Sunday evening, reality set in. “It’s untenable. Caucus and exec can make her life a living hell,” said one senior Grit. Within hours, Crombie resigned. She’ll stick around until the next leader is chosen.

A bright spot: The biggest reaction to Crombie’s pre-vote speech according to folks in the room was her reveal that she’s getting a promotion, from mother to grandmother, with daughter NATASHA expecting her first little one in February. (Aww!)

Reaction from the ruling party: When Crombie was still clinging to the leadership with 57 per cent, some Tories were pretty happy. “We’ve taken her out before, we can do it again. Bonnie is the best thing for us,” said one staffer who’s worked in the Premier’s Office. Then when Crombie stepped down, another PC said it’s still “a great situation.”

“The Liberals will spend the next 2 years trying to rebuild for the third time and go through a leadership race. It will be a waste of time, money and media time for the Liberals. The PCs will build the war chest as the Liberals fight themselves on the direction of their party. As a PC, I could not be happier.”

HAPPENING TODAY

10 a.m.: Green AISLINN CLANCY will speak at an Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario press conference at the Elizabeth Ziegler Public School in Waterloo, which isn’t expected to open its doors until 2027.

10:30 a.m.: Lieutenant Governor EDITH DUMONT will bestow exceptional Ontarians with awards to mark the annual Lieutenant Governors’ Legacy Day in Toronto. Also on hand: Citizenship Minister GRAHAM McGREGOR, Seniors Minister RAYMOND CHO and Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA.

10:30 a.m.: Sistema food storage will be in the Media Studio alongside TDSB educator WENDELL ISIDOR to provide remarks about their petition.

11 a.m.: Sport Minister NEIL LUMSDEN is up in Curve Lake First Nation.

1 p.m.: Colleges and Universities Minister NOLAN QUINN is up in Hamilton alongside Health Minister SYLVIA JONES and Energy Minister STEPHEN LECCE.

2 p.m.: Lumsden heads to Clarington.

CLIPPINGS

— LABOUR PAINS: LiUNA, the Ford-friendly union has swiftly exited the Ontario Federation of Labour, saying the umbrella group is engaging in “bad politics” and unfairly attacking DOUG FORD’s government. More from the Post.

— TRUSTEES TURN THE TABLES: “Ontario school board trustees are calling Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA a ‘hypocrite’ for going after individual expenses, pointing out he has racked up tens of thousands of dollars in his own expenses as a member of cabinet and provincial parliament. It’s the latest twist in a growing battle between the government and school board trustees, many of whom face the possibility of being eliminated.” Global News reports.

Meanwhile: “Trustees at Toronto’s Catholic school board are attempting to schedule a rogue meeting to get a legal opinion on their constitutional privileges amid an ongoing tug-of-war with the Ford government.” Dig in.

Also: There’s a fresh Campaign Research survey going around gauging how people feel about the future of trustees, which could be on the government’s chopping block altogether. It asks respondents to weigh in on whether they vote for trustees, how often they contact them, whether they’re effective in their roles, and what they think about reports of questionable expenses. Don’t forget: Campaign Research is the PCs preferred pollster.

Also on Calandra’s chopping block: parking immediately next to daycare centres. It comes in the wake of a crash in Richmond Hill that killed a one-and-a-half year-old boy and injured nine others. Full story.

— SPEED DEMONS: “The association representing Ontario’s municipalities is urging Premier DOUG FORD to reconsider his plan to get rid of automated speed cameras, saying it will put pedestrians at risk.” The Canadian Press has the story.

Refer a friend

🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY +1: Tourism, Culture and Gaming Minister STAN CHO.

🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Butter chicken with rice and vegetables.

⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 4 days until the NDP convention in Niagara Falls…35 days until the House reconvenes…137 days until the PC convention in Toronto.

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Cover image: @BonnieCrombie