ABOVE THE FOLD
LEADERSHIP ON THE LINE — On the eve of the high-stakes AGM, Liberals look about 50–50 on whether BONNIE CROMBIE should remain at the party helm. Technically she needs 50 per cent in Sunday’s leadership review to stay on — but the unofficial cutoff in Canadian politics usually hovers closer to 66 per cent.
So, what happens if she falls short? If Crombie steps aside, the party’s executive would convene almost immediately — and with this weekend’s internal elections, there could be fresh blood at that table. Next up: caucus appoints an interim leader. Your first guess might be JOHN FRASER, who twice carried the torch (after KATHLEEN WYNNE and STEVEN DEL DUCA bowed out). But there are plenty of new faces in caucus since February’s vote, so the choice isn’t a given.
After that, it’s leadership contest time — and readers of this newsletter already know the biggest names being floated: JEFF LEHMAN, NAVDEEP BAINS, KARINA GOULD and NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, among others.
Of course, all of this is hypothetical until Grits gather at the Sheraton in Toronto starting Friday.
Expected heavyweights with ex-officio status at the AGM include: KATHLEEN WYNNE, ART EGGLETON, AMANDA SIMARD, VINCE GASPARRO, NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, ANA BAILÃO, ARTHUR POTTS, LIZ SANDALS, GEORGE SMITHERMAN, YVAN BAKER, KARIM BARDEESY, PAM DAMOFF, MURRAY ELSTON, VANCE BADAWEY, GERRY PHILLIPS, MARK HOLLAND, GURBAX SINGH MALHI, MARIA MINNA, DIPIKA DAMERLA, JEFF LEAL, DAVID FLEET, CRISTINA MARTINS, ELEANOR McMAHON, PETER MILCZYN, JENNIFER MOSSOP, INDIRA NAIDOO-HARRIS, SIMA ACAN, FARES AL SOUD, JAMES MALONEY, RUBY SAHOTA, KRISTINA TESSER-DERKSEN and loads more — including sitting MPPs, ex-candidates and riding presidents.
Scoop — Another insider to watch: top party operative ALEXIS LEVINE, who will serve as Crombie’s chief scrutineer during Sunday’s ballot count. And don’t forget: ex-New Brunswick Premier BRIAN GALLANT is set to deliver Saturday’s keynote, while MP BRUCE FANJOY (Carleton) kicks off the convention Friday evening. Full agenda.
Pre-game reads: If you’re new here, here’s a quick refresher on my past scoops from the OLP leadership circuit…
Grit grab: Behind OLP's campaign cash-out … Crombie cash: Deep dive into the leaders’ candidate returns
Inside the Liberal circus: Bains bust, Crombie boost, debrief MIA
Got a hot take? Want to see your name bolded on the VIP list? Overheard something at the Sheraton lobby bar? Spill it, on or off the record: sabrina@qpobserver.ca, hit reply, or get at me directly:
HAPPENING TODAY
11 a.m.: Sport Minister NEIL LUMSDEN is up in MacTier.
8 p.m.: The New Leaf Liberals — an anti-Crombie Liberal spinoff — are hosting another pre-AGM pub night at the Firkin on Yonge.
CLIPPINGS
— BREAKER, BREAKER: “Ontario’s Ministry of Transportation has mailed out suspension letters to truck drivers who the province believes ‘dishonestly’ obtained their Class A licences during testing or training. A spokesperson for the ministry told Newstalk 1010 that 185 drivers received the letter.” While there’s scant detail on how the licences were obtained in the first place, the letters come after a bombshell CBC investigation showing shady practices at some DriveTest centres.
— SILVER LINING IN RICHMOND HILL? A source tells CTV News that “Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA is considering safety improvements at Ontario childcare centres in light of the horrifying crash at a Richmond Hill daycare that killed an 18-month-old boy.” The story.
— GREENBELT BY ANY OTHER NAME? “An Ontario public-sector union is crying foul about grants given out from a multi-billion-dollar provincial fund for private career training, even as the province’s public colleges face unprecedented shortfalls it projects will lead to thousands of job losses.” Said OPSEU prez JP HORNICK: “This has shades of the Greenbelt all over again.” CTV News reports.
Also on campus: “Thousands of Ontario public college staff on brink of strike as deadline ticks closer.” Via Global News.
— TRUSTEE TROUBLE: “$208,000 taxpayer dollars diverted from Ontario classrooms to courtrooms. CityNews has learned a GTA school board spent the money on legal fees fighting one of their own trustees. ‘That money could’ve supported students,’ says the head of York Catholic teachers union.” More.
Meanwhile, Education Minister PAUL CALANDRA dishes about his plans for trustees with Global News. Clip. Also: As Ministry supervisors go over trustee expenses with a fine-tooth comb, Calandra says he “can't see ever handing the boards currently under supervision back.” CP has the details.
— GONE GRASSROOTS: TVO’s John Michael McGrath dissects the Grits’ recently released post-mortem: “Ontario’s Liberals want a grassroots movement. About what?”
— WTF TFW: After taking flak for telling highly-unemployed young folks to look harder for a job — (“This from the man who walked into the business built by his father,” fired ex-Premier KATHLEEN WYNNE) — DOUG FORD and his government have “declined to take a position on whether the federal government should eliminate the temporary foreign worker program, which other Canadian Premiers have suggested is one of the root causes of the country’s employment woes.” Global News digs in.
— NOT-SO-HOT HOUSING: Oppo pounced on the latest CMHC report showing Toronto is on track for its lowest annual housing starts in three decades. NDP critics CATHERINE McKENNEY and JESSICA BELL blasted the Ford government for “throwing in the towel” on housing, accusing the PCs of offloading responsibility onto municipalities while condo and rental construction tanks. The NDP is pushing its Homes Ontario plan as the fix.
LOBBY LIST
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Nicko Vavassis, Wellington Advocacy: Insurance Bureau of Canada
Jessica Georgakopoulos, Sussex Strategy Group: Robinhood Markets Inc.
Shane McCloskey, Sandstone Group: Palette Skills
Ian Skipworth, Summa Strategies Canada: Kongsberg Geospatial
🍼 WELCOME TO THE WORLD: RACHEL NAUTA, who was executive assistant to the Speaker up until this spring, is taking time with her first baby girl, who is “keeping us busy with…lots of late night debates.” Adorable legislative onesie.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: JOE MANCINELLI, LiUNA’s Canadian director.
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: It’s Thursday so you know what that means — fish and chips is on tap in the basement caf.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 1 day until the Liberal AGM in Toronto…8 days until the NDP convention in Niagara Falls…39 days until the House reconvenes…141 days until the PC convention in Toronto.
Got a tip? Document to leak? Staffer on the move? Birthday or anniversary coming up? I want to hear from you, on or off the record. Reach out to sabrina@qpobserver.ca or just reply to this email.
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Cover image: Getty