Stiles hits primetime, Brown goes bold, Ford as the devil you know
Plus: Anatomy of a tech briefing, 15-foot Trojan Horse, document dump, Ford's football fundraiser
ABOVE THE FOLD
MARIT STILES debuts on primetime, PATRICK BROWN is trying to make them go to rehab, and DOUG FORD’s latest ranking suggests people aren’t happy with his handling of the most important issues — but they’d still pick him for Premier.
Before we dig into all that: Here’s what you need to know about the Ontario Place tech briefing — which are typically dull affairs, but this one sparked some fireworks.
DOCUMENT DUMP — On Thursday, Infrastructure Ontario’s MICHAEL LINDSAY detailed the government’s 95-year-lease with Therme for a waterpark, spa and parking structure, something Oppo critics have long demanded.
The thick 297-page stack of documents confirmed much of what was already out there — so it might be easier to start with what we don’t know.
Why now? Two years and a mountain of FOI requests later, it isn’t clear why the Ford government decided to release the hotly-demanded lease this week. Lindsay said he’s been preparing to go public for the “past couple of weeks” after getting direction from Infrastructure Minister KINGA SURMA’s office, and added that it was always IO’s plan to release the lease.
Speak for the trees: In a thrilling moment — not something that happens often in typically-dry technical briefings — Lindsay was asked about razing trees on the waterfront, which is underway now that nesting season for birds and bats is over. He explained stumps are replaced and that will result in a “net effect” of 1,300 extra trees.
Then the moderator tried to shut down tree questions — but the Globe and Mail’s JEFF GRAY wasn’t having it, saying “we’ll ask whatever questions we like.”
And boy, did we. Global News’s COLIN D’MELLO provided the kicker and snuck in a cheeky question about whether Infrastructure Ontario had ever looked into Premier DOUG FORD’s highly-scrutinized pledge to tunnel under the 401.
Lindsay very politely nipped that in the bud. “So, Colin, this particular technical briefing is vis-a-vis the Therme lease. I’m going to refer your question to the Ministry of Transportation. And hello, my friend.”
As for what we do know…
Parking: More details on the much-maligned and mysterious parking structure, including that the province would provide at least 1,600 spaces and, should the province fail to do so in time for the grand opening, would be on the hook for a $5-per-space daily penalty. We still don’t know where and what form the parking garage will take — Ford previously said underground was too expensive, and Infrastructure Ontario says those discussions are still happening.
In the bank: Therme is expected to fork over about $1.95 billion over the life of the agreement, including for rent and maintenance of the site.
Timelines: The 75-year deal with Therme starts in 2025 and comes with the option to extend it for another 20 years. An opening day remains hazy, but 2030 was floated at one point.
Kill fee: The province can get out of the lease early — so long as it provides five years’ notice, and only after Therme’s facility has been up and running for a decade. Ontario would also be on the hook for a year of lost revenue and a replacement facility elsewhere. They could call off the deal before construction starts (likely within the next two years), which would set the province back $30 million.
All critics called it a bad deal — but they might have a hard time getting out of it if they take the Premier’s chair in the next election.
HAPPENING TODAY
ON THE LAWN
Giddy up! A 15-foot Trojan Horse makes its way to the South Lawn today thanks to CUPE and the Ontario Health Coalition. The giant horse is touring the province and symbolizes the “hidden threat of the [Ford government’s] plans to privatize hospital surgeries.”
FUNDRAISING WATCH
6:30 p.m.: Premier DOUG FORD and Sport Minister and CFL Hall-of-Famer NEIL LUMSDEN are headlining a “Friday Night Lights” themed dinner for $1,000 a pop in Hamilton. Invite.
7 p.m.: Infrastructure Minister KINGA SURMA is shilling in Whitby with local rep LORNE COE for $750 apiece. Invite.
CLIPPINGS
First in Observer — STREAM QUEEN: Those fresh “It’s Marit” ads are streaming on Sportsnet, including during baseball and the WNBA playoffs, as well as streaming services, podcasts and more.
Go deeper: Here’s NDP campaign director DAVE CLARK’s ad strategy.
MEA CULPA! An earlier version of this edition stated that the It’s Marit ads were streaming on Netflix based on information from the party. But Netflix says that’s not actually the case.
— HE TRIED TO MAKE THEM GO TO REHAB: “Brampton Mayor PATRICK BROWN is calling on the province to allow involuntary treatment for residents of Peel with severe addictions, brain injuries and mental illness.” Related: Ontario’s Big City Mayors are considering a motion this month that would ask the province to intervene in future court cases re: removing encampments, which could involve invoking the notwithstanding clause. CityNews has more.
— POLL WATCH: The latest survey from the Angus Reid Institute suggests that while DOUG FORD’s approval is in the toilet, he’d still come out on top in an election.
Horse race: 40 per cent of Ontarians would cast their ballot for the PCs today, while the NDP and Liberals are statistically neck-and-neck, pulling in 25 per cent support and 23 per cent respectively.
That’s despite 80 per cent of folks believing Ford has performed poorly on health care, while 81 per cent think he’s failing on cost-of-living. Another 84 per cent aren’t happy with how he’s handling the housing affordability file.
“In fact, since the fall of 2022, more than seven-in-ten Ontarians have said the government has performed poorly on all three top issues. Despite this, Ford and co. remain well ahead of their rivals,” the pollster says.
Her? Ford’s popularity may be owed in part to MARIT STILES and BONNIE CROMBIE’s relative obscurity. Thirty per cent said they didn’t know enough about Crombie to form an opinion on her, while 39 per cent are clueless about Stiles. “For those who do assess either leader, their opinion is more negative than positive (Crombie, -22 net favourability; Stiles, -15).” Dig in.