The biggest post-mortem storylines
Election hangover report
ABOVE THE FOLD
DOUG FORD didn’t get the bigger blue blowout he wanted, but at 80 seats, the PCs cruised to a rare hat-trick majority win Thursday night.
Sure, the Legislature might look pretty much the same the morning after, but the implications for all the parties are huge.
Ford managed to improve his margins but not the PCs seat count — they took home 42.9 per cent of the popular vote versus 40.8 per cent in 2022, when they claimed 83 seats.
That might sting for the Premier, who was angling for an even “stronger mandate.” Indeed, he seemed relatively low-key in his brief scrum with CP24 on his way to the victory party at the Toronto Congress Centre.
Still, his early election gamble paid off and he’s got carte blanche at Queen’s Park for another four years, with the added bonus of leaving his political rivals in the dust.
Now, it’s out of the frying pan and into the fire. DONALD TRUMP’s tariff deadline is fast approaching on March 4, and Ford has made the snap election all about that, so don’t expect much of a post-campaign reprieve. It wouldn’t be the best optics to delay bringing the House back in order to pass a budget with the PCs multi-billion-dollar tariff-fighting plan.
It’s also risky for Ford to keep playing the Captain Canada role — if potentially devastating tariffs do come down, Ford wouldn’t want to wear that politically. (A seemingly imminent federal election would help fill the leadership vacuum.)
For the Liberals, a good-news-bad-news situation: They placed second in the popular vote — 29.9 per cent versus the NDP’s 18.5 per cent — but only scored 14 seats, clearing the 12-seat threshold for recognized status, though falling short of Official Opposition, which the NDP held on to with 27 seats.
Salt in the wounds: BONNIE CROMBIE couldn’t win a seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville, which went to PATRICK BROWN’s mother-in-law SILVIA GUALTIERI.
Crombie says she’s still sticking around as leader, but the knives are out. Liberal operatives are spinning last night’s showing as a win because they gained a big share of the vote and official status (plus all the resources, money and legislative speaking time that comes with it).
Meantime, my phone has been blowing up with ticked-off Grits calling for her head.
“Bonnie needs to resign and she will be pushed out if not. Total disaster after spending a year preparing for an early election,” a Liberal strategist texted…
“If she doesn’t resign tonight I will be calling for her to do so,” said one organizer…
Another insider was more blunt: MARK “CARNEY got the party to status not Bonnie and [there were] some strong local campaigns…I think the leader has to come from the new caucus honestly.”
Awkward! Crombie will host the newly elected Liberal caucus at a meeting in Toronto on Saturday afternoon, according to an E-Day memo from ALEXIS LEVINE, chair of the party’s post-election planning committee. The invite states that failed candidates can join in an hour-and-a-half later. Attendees will unpack the campaign and what comes next with the party’s executive council, which is also meeting earlier in the day.
MARIT STILES will keep her gig as Official Opposition leader thanks in large part to the NDP’s uber-efficient vote, which is concentrated in places like Toronto, Hamilton, London and Niagara. It also speaks to the party’s strong ground game.
“If there’s one thing we know, it’s that New Democrats, our volunteers, the people who want the kind of change we’re offering, they show up every time,” she said in her after-party speech.
Despite being more than 10 points behind the Grits in the popular vote, New Democrats won 27 seats — one less than they had at dissolution, and four down from 2022. JILL ANDREW won’t be returning to the Leg for a third term: She was beat out in Toronto-St, Paul’s by star Grit challenger and popular broadcaster STEPHANIE SMYTH.
The challenge for the incoming Oppo leader, and to a lesser extent the seat-less Liberal leader, is that they weren’t able to make a huge dent in Ford’s standings — but boy, did they try.
During the campaign, Stiles and Crombie had their elbows up and blasted Ford’s record on the Greenbelt, health care, hot mics — you name it — but nothing seemed to stick to the Teflon Tory leader. Ontarians still gave him a third majority mandate. So Stiles will have her work cut out for her come Question Period time. And both parties may have some soul-searching to do so that their message resonates with Ontarians.
Over in the Greens’ corner, history strikes twice: AISLINN CLANCY claimed victory in her first general in Kitchener Centre, which she had won in a byelection. The Greens didn’t win their next target seat, Parry Sound-Muskoka, which PC GRAYDON SMITH held handily, but MIKE SCHREINER kept Guelph with nearly 20,000 votes.
Have at it: Unofficial election results.
HANGOVER REPORT
CLOSEST CALLS — A razor-thin margin in Mushkegowuk-James Bay, where incumbent NDP GUY BOURGOUIN eked out a four-vote win over PC DAVID PLOURDE.
That’s recount territory. Same goes for Mississauga-Erin Mills, where PC SHEREF SABAWY narrowly held on by 20 ballots over Grit contender QASIR DAR.
In Burlington: PC NATALIE PIERRE (who initially wasn’t going to run for re-election) squeaked by with 40 votes.
In Eglinton-Lawrence: Rookie candidate MICHELLE COOPER, a solid organizer and executive director of the PC Party Fund, bested Liberal VINCE GASPARRO by 167 votes. Gasparro presumably picked up a bunch of NDP votes when their candidate dropped out and backed him as the strategic anti-Ford pick — but not enough.
Sault Ste. Marie was even tighter: New Democrats had been gunning for that riding, which was arguably more competitive after PC ROSS ROMANO bowed out of re-election. But CHRIS SCOTT kept it blue with 118 votes.
Ditto York South-Weston: MOHAMED FIRIN kept the seat blue after MICHAEL FORD’s departure, but Liberal DANIEL DI GIORGIO didn’t make it easy, coming in 144 ballots shy of a tie.
BIGGEST BLOWOUTS — Independent BOBBI ANN BRADY pulled off a major feat in not only hanging on to her historic seat in Haldimand-Norfolk, but by how much: 20,000-plus ballots. She had some tough competition in PC AMY MARTIN, Norfolk County Mayor.
UPDATE — After re-checking Elections Ontario’s results the morning after, the biggest blowout was actually Liberal TED HSU in Kingston and the Islands.
FLIPS — Liberal LEE FAIRCLOUGH nabbed Etobicoke-Lakeshore from PC CHRISTINE HOGARTH…PC MONICA CIRIELLO took Hamilton Mountain from the incumbent-less NDP…Liberal TYLER WATT scored PC LISA MacLEOD’s old seat in Nepean…Liberal ROB CERJANEC narrowly wrested Ajax from PC PATRICE BARNES…Algoma-Manitoulin now belongs to PC BILL ROSENBERG, who beat out turfed-NDPer MICHAEL MANTHA.
DIPS — SARAH JAMA placed fourth in Hamilton Centre…Ousted Tory VINCENT KE lost Don Valley North to Liberal JONATHAN TSAO.
ONTARIO TURNED UP — Voter turnout clocked in at 45.4 per cent. That’s a smidge more than the record-low 44-per-cent-turnout we recorded in 2022, but that was a scheduled spring election, not a rare snap winter campaign — and therefore something to feel hopeful about when it comes to democracy.
FOR WHOM THE POLL TOLLS — Poles are for dogs, and, as MARIT STILES suggested in her victory speech, some pollsters are going to the dogs. Here’s how the public-opinion watchers fared.
As for this newsletter’s just-for-fun election pool: Not one of you came close in the horse race. But my PC and Liberal sources were pretty spot on with their turnout predictions. As promised, that’s all I’ll say about that.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: On Sunday — PC MPP-elect PETER BETHLENFALVY (Pickering-Uxbridge)…Ex-finance minister ROD PHILLIPS…CityNews reporter RICHARD SOUTHERN…Belatedly — PC MPP-elect LAURA SMITH (Thornhill).
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Potato and cauliflower curry with rice and vegetables.