What Ottawa's breakdown means for Ontario

And Crosstown crunch

ABOVE THE FOLD

FORD FACTOR — With the federal NDP pulling out of the supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals, it could be a race to the polls for Ontario.

Earlier this week, DOUG FORD fuelled more speculation of a snap provincial vote next spring, which the Premier isn’t ruling out. Then, over on the Hill, NDP captain JAGMEET SINGH “ripped up” the governance deal with PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU, at the behest of Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE — triggering the possibility of a federal election as soon as this fall, if Trudeau’s minority doesn’t hold up.

The big question: What does that mean for an early election in Ontario?

Pros and cons: Regular readers will know by now that Ford would have an edge if he were to go to the polls ahead of the feds. Not only do Ontarians tend to vote for political opposites at Queen’s Park and the Hill (a.k.a. the Underhill balance theory), but there’s also the prospect of cuts under a Poilievre regime that Ford won’t want to wear at the provincial level…