A silver lining to tariffs for the Tories
Primetime Premier
Presented by your future winter escape
ABOVE THE FOLD
With a trade war bubbling south of the border, there’s a bright spot for the PCs closer to home: They’ve doubled their lead over their political rivals.
According to one pollster, DONALD TRUMP’s bombshell tariff announcement has seen support for DOUG FORD explode. The horse race, per Liaison Strategies, now has the PCs at 43 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 31 per cent, New Democrats with 16 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent.
“Ford focused his campaign on tariffs and the trade war from the very start and, for now, that is paying dividends with Ontarians,” said pollster-in-chief DAVID VALENTIN.
Indeed: It’s been difficult for the Liberals and NDP to land critical blows against Ford when he dons his Captain Canada cape. Both BONNIE CROMBIE and MARIT STILES have blamed Ford for putting all of Ontario’s eggs into the EV basket and failing to diversify the economy. Stiles is promising an income protection plan for workers. Crombie wants Ford to nix the $100-million Starlink deal with Trump pal ELON MUSK, which Ford hasn’t ruled out. She also demanded that he reveal details of the multi-billion-dollar stimulus package on which Ford has hinged his early election call.
But: They’re not getting much traction as Ford continues to suck up all the oxygen in the room, especially in his capacity as Premier. Staring down devastating tariffs, people tend to want to hear from the powers-that-be. (Ontario follows the caretaker convention and, according to Ford’s opponents, he’s walking a fine line with a pair of trips to Washington this month, which the PCs are paying for.)
“Ford is vulnerable on healthcare, on education…but we’re not talking about that. We’re talking about tariffs,” texted one Tory insider.
“You live by the tariff, you die by the tariff,” added another.
That said: Other polls have suggested tariffs don’t rank as high on Ontarians’ radar compared to cost-of-living and access to a family doctor, but the situation is evolving, so that could change too.
Ride the pollercoaster: Public-opinion surveys have varied widely and wildly during the campaign. Case in point: The latest from Ipsos pegs the PCs at an unprecedented 50 per cent. 338 Canada is projecting a whopping 98-seat majority for Ford. Read more about that in this special weekend edition — and stay tuned to tomorrow’s newsletter for a deep dive into the numbers.
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WHERE THE LEADERS ARE AT
PCs…10 a.m.: DOUG FORD is on his home turf in Etobicoke to make an announcement.
Media watch — He’ll also be on U.S. news shows all day (including Trump’s favourite channel Fox News), much to the jealousy of domestic reporters: 8:20 a.m.: The Fox and Friends morning show…3 p.m.: Fox Business…4 p.m.: NBC’s Meet the Press NOW…7 p.m.: CNN’s Erin Burnett OutFront. Ford was also on CNN last night.
Fundraising watch — 8:30 a.m.: Ford is hosting a $1,000-a-plate breakfast in Toronto in support of Eglinton-Lawrence contender MICHELLE COOPER. STEPHEN LECCE will also be on hand. It’s a battleground riding — for many reasons.
NDP…9 a.m.: MARIT STILES makes an announcement at the Canadian Automotive Museum in Oshawa. 1 p.m.: Stiles glad-hands around Belleville. 6:15 p.m.: She then heads to Ottawa for an event at the Big Rig Kitchen & Brewery.
Liberals…10 a.m.: BONNIE CROMBIE kicks off the day touring a health care facility in Cambridge. 12:30 p.m.: She’ll lay out her tariff-fighting plan at the Kitchener-Waterloo Chamber of Commerce and take questions from reporters. 3 p.m.: Crombie attends a campaign event with candidates in Kitchener-Waterloo.
Greens…10 a.m.: MIKE SCHREINER and AISLINN CLANCY make a housing-related announcement at Clancy’s campaign office in Kitchener.
Save the date…DEBATE NIGHT — All four main party leaders square off for the Northern debate on February 14, bringing a touch of cutthroat political discussion to your Valentine’s Day. Sparks fly at 1 p.m. in North Bay. Another provincewide-themed debate could happen on February 17 — Family Day — but it’s not set in stone yet.
ALSO HAPPENING TODAY
1 p.m.: PCs PETER BETHLENFALVY and CAROLINE MULRONEY (who are also Finance Minister and Treasury Board prez) are making an announcement in Woodbridge alongside FLAVIO VOLPE, head of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association.
6 p.m.: Liberal candidate COLLEEN JAMES (Kitchener Centre) is hosting a $50-a-head event with ex-minister and MPP JOHN MILLOY at the local art gallery. Invite.
CLIPPINGS
— PAYBACK POLITICS: “Ford has ordered the LCBO to strip its shelves of American products in response to the U.S. imposing 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian imports starting Tuesday. ‘Every year, LCBO sells nearly $1 billion worth of American wine, beer, spirits and seltzers. Not anymore,’ Ford said.” CBC has the details.
Crombie backed the booze plan, but blamed Ford for leaving Ontario in the lurch.
Trading tariffs: Here are all the ways Canada is hitting back at the U.S.
— NEVER WASTE A GOOD CRISIS: “Ford insists Ontario is not vulnerable during a snap election campaign he called as a possible trade war with the United States looms.” More from the Canadian Press.
— PROMISE MADE, PROMISE KEPT (OR NOT): From the CBC, an assessment of whether Ford actually did “get it done.” Report card.