Top 10 closest races
Candidates, caretakers and a cautionary tale
Presented by your future Saturday night plans
ABOVE THE FOLD
BATTLEGROUND WATCH — With campaign kick-off coming Wednesday, party leaders are hitting the hustings hard — and their preferred pit stops can shed some light on their target regions.
Premier DOUG FORD was in Brampton Friday for a campaign-style announcement (more on that below). The vote-rich 905 can make or break governments at Queen’s Park, and with a popular former mayor of neighbouring Mississauga leading the Liberals, it’s one region the PCs will be working hard to hold on to. They’ve also been making a push for the North and Windsor-area, where they managed to poach some seats from the NDP in 2022, as well as the fringes of Toronto.
As for BONNIE CROMBIE: the Liberal Leader and ex-mayor is expected to announce where she’ll run imminently. There are two options: Mississauga Centre and Mississauga East-Cooksville. My sources have been banking on Crombie choosing Centre, but Cooksville is also enticing as it was a much closer race in 2022: PC NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA scored 2,459 votes more than Liberal candidate SUMIRA MALIK, while in Cooksville, ex-PC KALEED RASHEED beat out Liberal DIPIKA DAMERLA by 1,206.
Crombie is at Queen’s Park today lamenting the Ford government’s “boozedoggle.”
Over the weekend, NDP Leader MARIT STILES spoke at the Ontario Health Coalition’s annual assembly and hit up nominations celebrations for JILL ANDREW at Gatherings Resto Bar in St. Paul’s, and for JEN DECK in Peterborough-Kawartha, then addressed the Tamil community in Scarborough. All about B-town: Stiles will make an announcement in Brampton today after a morning meeting with the Ontario Federation of Labour.
Green captain MIKE SCHREINER continues his “local champions” tour. The Greens tend to pour their resources into certain target seats, such as Guelph and Kitchener Centre, as well as Parry Sound-Muskoka. Schreiner is also in Wellington-Halton Hills and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound this week.
CLOSEST CALLS — I’ve rounded up some of the tightest races from 2022, which may give us another clue as to which ridings the campaigns will be gunning for.
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte: Star Grit candidate and former Barrie mayor JEFF LEHMAN gave Attorney General DOUG DOWNEY a run for his money and placed 296 votes behind.
Eglinton-Lawrence: PC ROBIN MARTIN, who isn’t running again, scored just 524 votes more than her Liberal opponent in 2022. This year, the Grits are feeling confident with high-profile candidate VINCE GASPARRO, who will square off against PC party exec MICHELLE COOPER.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore: PC CHRISTINE HOGARTH narrowly beat out Liberal contender LEE FAIRCLOUGH by 842 votes. They’ll go head-to-head again on February 27.
Oshawa: Longtime incumbent NDPer JENNIFER FRENCH held on to her seat with 747 votes over the PCs flag-bearer.
York South-Weston is much more competitive now that incumbent MICHAEL FORD is bowing out (more on that momentarily). Ford beat out the former NDP MPP for the riding FAISAL HASSAN with 796 votes. Hassan is vying for the seat again.
Thunder Bay-Superior North: NDP LISE VAUGEOIS nabbed 800 votes over her PC rival.
Niagara Centre: Another too-close-for-comfort race for the New Democrats. JEFF BURCH scored 854 votes more than the Tories.
Beaches-East York: Some 898 voters preferred Liberal MARY-MARGARET McMAHON to their former NDP reps.
Ottawa West-Nepean continues to be a battle between the NDP and PCs. CHANDRA PASMA beat former PC MPP JEREMY ROBERTS by 1,086 votes.
In Toronto-St.Paul’s, a former Liberal bastion, incumbent NDPer JILL ANDREW held on by 1,092 ballots.
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HAPPENING TODAY
8:30 a.m.: Booze news! The Financial Accountability Office will delve into the Ford government’s decision to liberalize alcohol sales. Teaser: The report “estimates the financial impact to the Province of the decision to expand Ontario’s beverage alcohol marketplace for beer, wine, cider and ready-to-drink alcohol beverages, including the cost to accelerate that expansion to begin in 2024.”
11 a.m.: Health Minister SYLVIA JONES and JANE PHILPOTT, chair of the government’s Primary Care Action Team, will hold a press conference in Whitney Block.
11:30 a.m.: An announcement in North Bay from Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA and local rep and Trade Minister VIC FEDELI.
1:30 p.m.: Energy Minister STEPHEN LECCE is in Cambridge.
2:30 p.m.: JONES heads to London for an announcement.
In the Media Studio…
9:30 a.m.: Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE and Finance critic STEPHANIE BOWMAN will respond to the FAO’s report “on Doug Ford’s booze boondoggle.”
10 a.m.: CUPE’s academic division is up next.
1 p.m.: Liberal ADIL SHAMJI is holding a media availability.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 5:30 p.m.: The PCs are putting on a $1,000-a-plate fundraiser in Brampton. Invite.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — Crickets. Pre-budget consultations have been cancelled as Ontario gears up to campaign mode. Speaking of which…
CLIPPINGS
— PLAYING DEFENCE: Premier DOUG FORD confirmed a February 27 election and said he’ll ask Lieutenant Governor EDITH DUMONT on Tuesday to issue the writ for Wednesday. And he insists he’s not rushing into a snap vote to get out ahead of a federal vote that could happen this spring.
Speaking at a campaign-style announcement in Brampton, where he said that part of the Hazel McCallion LRT would be tunnelled (cost TBD), Ford said “no,” he’s not afraid of a PIERRE POILIEVRE victory.
Strange bedfellows: The Star has more on all that, plus a fun detail about Poilievre linking up with BONNIE CROMBIE.
Meanwhile: Non-political staff at Brampton City Hall were ordered to attend, via Global.
— CARETAKER CONUNDRUM: “As Premier DOUG FORD prepares to trigger a provincial election on Wednesday, opposition parties are raising concerns about his two planned trips to Washington D.C. during the campaign, calling them ‘explicitly partisan’ and an inappropriate use of taxpayer funds.”
More from Global News: The Liberals want Chief Electoral Officer GREG ESSENSA to consider the Washington visits as election-related activity and therefore subject to
While Ford said the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party would pay for the trip to Washington, Ontario’s Liberal party is raising questions about whether taxpayer funds will be used for any part of the trip and whether government staff will support Ford during his visit.
— CAUTIONARY TALE: DAN RATH, co-author of Not Without Cause, the story of then-Liberal premier DAVID PETERSON’s failed early election gamble, has a rather savage assessment of DOUG FORD as he follows in Peterson’s path. Via the Star:
“Ford has been frogmarched to this ledge by two forces: the self-interested opportunists in his caucus and cabinet greedy for four more years of job security and power, and the geniuses in his backroom, who can’t get past the shallow topline of their polling data and insist the time will never be better to lock in another mandate.”
Go deeper: Catch up on my one-on-one with Rath.
— POLL WATCH: Is the snap vote already backfiring? The latest polling numbers from Liaison Strategies and Mainstreet Research suggest the Liberals continue to make up the gap with the ruling party. The latter has the Grits at 29 per cent, versus 36 per cent for the PCs and 23 per cent for the NDP. Liaison’s got the Liberals within striking distance of the PCs, with 33 per cent and 39 per cent support, respectively.
“The trendline is more telling than any single poll, and it’s clear: the Ontario Liberals are gaining momentum. Week by week, the race is tightening,” said Liaison’s DAVID VALENTIN.
“The big question is what’s driving the shift? It’s likely a number of factors but the early election call is certainly one of them as awareness of the early election has been rising with more and more media reports and developments by the day.”
Campaigns matter! “It’s worth acknowledging that blowback over an early election call may not last. It is unlikely to be the defining issue of the campaign.”
The PCs are still the heavy favourite and on track to win a rare third majority, according to 338Canada. But if Mainstreet’s numbers hold, it’s looking like a minority.
— BILL 7 BLOW: “An Ontario court has thrown out a Charter challenge of a long-term care law that allows hospitals to move people into homes they didn't choose, or charge them $400 a day if they want to go elsewhere.” CBC reports.
— PREACH, TEACH: “Ontario is staring down a teacher shortage as retirements and student enrolment are both on the rise, and the Ministry of Education expects the situation will start to get even worse in 2027.” French and tech classes are bearing the brunt. The Canadian Press delves into FOI’ed documents.
— THE CHEQUE IS IN THE MAIL: Ontario’s $200 cheques begin arriving, including some addressed to the deceased. Global News reports.
— NO CAP: Those MAGA-esque “Canada Is Not For Sale” hats DOUG FORD was rocking are going viral — but the company behind them is getting a crash course in domestic manufacturing. CP has the story.
CANDIDATE TRACKER
With the deadline for nominations expected to close February 13, the parties are scrambling to fill up their dance card for all 124 ridings.
The PCs could nominate the rest of their contenders en masse any day now. They’ve still got to fill slots for some incumbent ridings, including super competitive York South-Weston, where MICHAEL FORD isn’t running again. The Premier’s nephew, ex-councillor and current Citizenship and Multiculturalism Minister had taken a leave for health reasons, and now says he won’t seek re-election and will “take on a new chapter.”
The Grits could also blitz nominations, but word on the street is they’re having trouble securing not only candidates (including in former bastion Toronto-St. Paul’s) but local campaign managers too, including for some star contenders.
Hoping to help turn that around quickly are campaign co-chairs Dr. ROSE ZACHARIAS (Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte) and PETER YUEN (Scarborough Agincourt). By picking Zacharias — a family physician and former head of the Ontario Medical Association — and Yuen — Toronto’s former deputy chief of police — the party says it shows their commitment “to fixing the health care, affordability and public safety crises DOUG FORD has neglected for too long.”
New Democrats are also nominating candidates as quick as they can, but the party’s rulebook doesn’t allow appointments, so the process is slower.
Newest recruits include: NDPers JEN DECK (Peterborough-Kawartha)…JESSICA ZIELKE (Hastings-Lennox and Addington)…BROOKLIN WALLIS (Kitchener Centre)…KATHRYN SHAILER (Lambton-Kent-Middlesex)…RACHEL MILLS (Essex)…JUDITH MONTEITH FARRELL (Thunder Bay-Atikokan)…FRANK CHU (Don Valley East)…DOLY BEGUM (Scarborough Southwest)…
Liberals EILEEN WALKER (Hamilton Centre)…JOHN CAMPBELL (Etobicoke Centre)…THOMAS SIMPSON (Ottawa Centre)…TED CRYSLER (Simcoe-Grey).
Full candidate roster (so far).
SPOTTED AT THERME:
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LOBBY LIST
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations since Friday:
Samuel Duncan, Wellington Advocacy: Detroit International Bridge Corporation, LLC
Jill Walker, GW Group: CNIB Foundation
Isaac Crawford-Ritchie, Global Public Affairs: SAP Canada Inc., International Information System Security Certification Consortium, Inc.
Donald Gracey, CG Management & Communications: Association of Architectural Technologists of Ontario
Fraser Macdonald, StrategyCorp: Northbridge Capital Inc.
Chris Benedetti, Sussex Strategy Group: Electronic Products Recycling Association
Rob Krauss, Building Edge Strategies: South Service Holding Corp.
In-house organizations: L'Association des enseignantes et des enseignants franco-ontariens (AEFO) — Great Wolf Resorts — Takeda Canada — Spotlight Development.
🎊 HAPPY ANNIVERSARY: Associate Minister of Women’s Social and Economic Opportunity CHARMAINE WILLIAMS and partner STEVE, celebrating 15 years together. Cute pic.
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Chicken stir-fry with rice and vegetables.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 2 days until the writ drops…31 days until Election Day…35 days until the House reconvenes.
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Cover image: Elections Ontario
MEA CULPA! An earlier version of this edition suggested the expected close of nominations would be February 6. It’s actually February 13.