An ideological love-in, can-of-worms presser and byelection curveball
Plus: Piccini vs. Hahn, Round II
Paid subscribers got this dispatch in their inboxes bright and early this morning. Don’t play catch up — subscribe to get Queen’s Park’s most-read newsletter before everyone else:
ABOVE THE FOLD
Premier DOUG FORD opened another can of worms at his Wednesday presser. Meanwhile, MARK MARISSEN dishes about his former partner CHRISTY CLARK headlining the Liberal convention next month. And I’ve got a juicy theory on the looming byelection in Bay of Quinte.
Let’s get to it.
We called it! — TIMING IS EVERYTHING — I got the jump on the byelection call to replace TODD SMITH in Bay of Quinte: the vote goes down on September 19. Hours before the call, the PCs were first out of the gate to announce their candidate, local Belleville councillor TYLER ALLSOPP. It all happened surprisingly quickly, as Smith only stepped down last Friday.
While the PCs are expected to hold on to the seat — the riding has been Tory blue since its creation — they may also be getting the added bonus of throwing a wrench into Liberal plans. That’s because the byelection takes place the day before the Grits’ AGM and policy convention in London (more on that momentarily).
That could stretch Liberal resources — which are limited not least because they’re the third-place, unrecognized party — at a crucial time. A byelection loss — as likely as it may be in a Tory stronghold — would nonetheless be bad for Grit morale going into the party convention.
Officially: The Grits put out a statement slamming Premier DOUG FORD for forcing his “handpicked insider candidate” on families in Bay of Quinte. “Conservatives put their rich friends first, and everyone else last…You deserve more from Queen’s Park — and Ontario’s Liberals are going to field a candidate who will do just that,” said spokesperson CARTER BROWNLEE.
Unofficially: I asked a source in Crombie’s inner circle whether the timing of the byelection disrupts their convention plans. “Maybe Doug thinks that since he doesn’t work all that hard, but BONNIE [CROMBIE] can walk and chew gum,” they texted.
Still, one party operative tells me the timing “will put the convention under stress, that’s for sure.”
Another Liberal insider is, clearly, still reeling from the last byelection loss: “Whose son will they run in Belleville?” they quipped, making a jab at failed Milton contender GALEN NAIDOO HARRIS, son of ex-cabinet minister INDIRA NAIDOO HARRIS, whose candidacy caused a bit of a stir. (Fun fact: ZEE HAMID, now PC MPP for Milton, flirted with Crombie before deciding to run for Ford.)
The other snap vote: For all the campaign prep currently happening, a snap byelection effectively makes a fall election even more unlikely — Ford intimated as much at his Wednesday presser, giving reporters a hard “no.” My pet theory is still Spring 2025. LARYSSA WALER, former Ford staffer who just launched her own firm Walman Strategies, agrees, telling CP she’s banking on a post-spring-budget vote.
Another bonus: A byelection allows all candidates to fundraise beyond the annual party donation limit of $3,375 — and that extra dough will come in handy if there is an early election.
The hunt is on in Bay of Quinte: The other parties have until 2 p.m. on September 5 to lock in their candidates. Advanced polls run from September 8 to 13; on E-Day it’s 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.
LIBERAL LOVE-IN — A day after the byelection, Grits will descend on London for a policy convention that will help inform their campaign platform — and the lineup is making waves.
The roster: High-profile speakers for the September 20 event include ex-B.C. Premier CHRISTY CLARK, former federal Health Minister (and the Ford government’s Covid-era adviser) JANE PHILPOTT, planning pro JENNIFER KEESMAAT, and top doc to seniors at Mount Sinai and UHN Dr. SAMIR SINHA.
Frenemies: Naturally, political circles are speculating over whether all but one of those headliners would run for BONNIE CROMBIE (who says she wants half her slate locked in by September). The outlier is Clark, who is rumoured to be eyeing JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s gig, should the federal Liberal leadership open up. There’s no love lost between the PM and Philpott and Clark, and Crombie is reportedly making a point to distance herself from Trudeau, who is tanking in the polls.
Meanwhile, New Democrats pounced, painting Clark with a Ford-esque brush — similar to their attacks on Crombie. “Desperate to show she’s a ‘different kind of Liberal’ (their party’s words, not mine), Bonnie Crombie has invited *checks notes* Christy Clark to speak at the Ontario Liberals’ AGM. Unsurprising, as just like Crombie, Clark has a lot in common with DOUG FORD, too,” tweeted JASON WAGAR, former NDP comms staffer.
Left-leaning outlet PressProgress also put out a handy roundup of Clark’s so-called less-than-progressive policies out West. “Crombie, Ford, and Clark are all cut from the same cloth. They put themselves and their friends first, and everyone else last,” Wagar added.
But NDPers are gonna NDP, said an unfazed MARK MARISSEN — Clark’s ex-husband and politico in his own right — who dismissed the criticism as “NDP spin.” Marissen, who is hoping to attend the OLP AGM and grew up in the provincial party, led STEPHANE DION’s come-from-behind leadership win in 2006 and helmed GEORGE TAKACH’s bid in 2012. He also ran for mayor of Vancouver and now heads up comms firm Burrard Strategy.
Marissen points out that B.C. politics is its own kettle of fish. Ontario may have a “pretty healthy three-party system” but out West, “that’s a lot more difficult to create.”
“Essentially, everybody that doesn’t want to support the NDP coalesces around one party. That’s been the way it’s worked for, I don’t know, 50 years or so…Historically, the B.C. Liberal Party was a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives, which is kind of foreign to Ontarians. So, the fact that she would have Conservatives in that coalition would of course make the NDP want to categorize her as a right-wing conservative or whatever. Right-wingers would call her too liberal, and the left-wingers call her too conservative. It’s usually what a centrist is.”
Crombie is also pumping herself up as a centrist (er, after that “right-of-centre” gaffe), which Marissen believes is key to winning Ontario.
On what lessons Ontario Liberals can learn from their B.C. cousins: “That you should never give up,” Marissen said. “Going into the election, [Clark] was about 20 points behind, in fact, she was 20 points behind throughout most of the campaign period. But what we really learned was that the majority of people now do not tune in until much closer to the election, probably much closer than ever before, and these decisions are made in the last couple of days of the campaign. You can’t assume that where people are at a week before is going to be what happens on the day of the vote.”
Marissen didn’t bite when I pressed him on Clark’s federal ambitions. Asked if she’d make a good Prime Minister, he said: “Well, she’s the mother of my child [laughs]. She would be good, of course…[but] there is no opening at this time.”
Over to you, Trudeau.
FORD HOLDS FORTH — Highlights from DOUG FORD’s bull-in-a-china-shop presser in St. Catharines:
Hahn solo: The Premier backed up his Labour Minister DAVID PICCINI for going toe-to-toe with CUPE Ontario prez FRED HAHN, who is facing mounting flak after he posted social media videos deemed antisemitic. Ford went on an unprovoked tangent at the end of the Q+A with reporters, calling Hahn “a disgusting human being.” Soon after, CUPE’s national wing demanded Hahn’s resignation as VP, which won’t impact his position at the provincial union.
On the much-maligned-yet-politically-deft move to shutter drug consumption sites in favour of treatment hubs, going against expert advice, Ford played defence: “We haven’t seen it get better. This was supposed to be the greatest thing since sliced bread. It’s the worst thing that could ever happen to a community, to have one of these safe-injection sites in their neighbourhood.”
Ford also took the opportunity to bash the feds as “the biggest drug dealer in the entire country.” To which federal Mental Health and Addictions Minister YA’ARA SAKS clapped back: “The Premier seems to misunderstand how the healthcare system works.” Via the Globe.
The actual announcement: $10 million via the Skills Development Fund Training Stream for Ontario Shipyards to train and upskill workers for the shipbuilding and repair sector.
HAPPENING TODAY
10 a.m.: Trade Minister VIC FEDELI is making an announcement in Kitchener.
1 p.m.: Housing Minister PAUL CALANDRA and Associate Housing Minister VIJAY THANIGASALAM are up in St. Catharines.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 5:30 p.m.: The PCs are shilling in Toronto for $1,500 a pop — there’s no ministerial lineup posted, which regular readers will know by now means DOUG FORD could make a cameo. Invite.
— 6 p.m.: Liberal heavyweight JEAN AUGUSTINE, former MP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Order of Canada member, is headlining an intimate $125-a-head dinner on her former stomping grounds. Also on hand: Ex-candidate LEE FAIRCLOUGH. RSVP.
— 5 p.m.: NDPer TERESA ARMSTRONG is putting on a “Midsummer Madness BBQ” in London-Fanshawe, featuring a silent auction, burgers and hot dogs. Invite.
SAVE THE DATES — NDP Leader MARIT STILES will address the Empire Club on September 26. Premier DOUG FORD will tease the fall session on October 17.
NOT HAPPENING — Add LISA MacLEOD — the Tories sole remaining Ottawa MPP, she notes — to the list of groups, including the Ontario Liberals, that are skipping out on Capital Pride after organizers expressed solidarity with the Palestinian cause.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
TRANSITION — FRAZER SNOWDON has signed on to newly shuffled Colleges and Universities Minister NOLAN QUINN’s camp as senior digital and comms adviser. Snowdon hails from Transportation.
Expecting the Lobbying Dispatch here? Don’t worry, you’re not missing anything — there were no new, renewed or amended registrations on record over the past 24 hours.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Associate Minister of Energy-Intensive Industries SAM OOSTERHOFF (Niagara West).
🍽️ ON THE MENU: It’s Thursday, so — drumroll, please — fish and chips is on special in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 28 days until the byelection in Bay of Quinte…29 days until the Liberal AGM in London…60 days until the House reconvenes.