Early election clues pile up
Everyone's recruiting
ABOVE THE FOLD
Loads of action over the weekend — and it ain’t over yet. Let’s get to it.
UPDATE — More big hints that an early election may be around the corner: The PCs have launched their candidate nominations process (scooped here) and are planning a big campaign training session for October (scooped here).
First in Observer I— SNAP VOTE SPECULATION — Friday’s mini cabinet shuffle isn’t the only thing dousing gasoline on early election rumours: Elections Ontario is hiring returning officers — and that’s got politicos wondering if the agency is, like pretty much everyone else, reading the snap-vote tea leaves.
Cue eyes emoji: According to the job posting, Elections Ontario is already recruiting returning officers at $45 an hour to oversee voting in certain riding locations. It lays out the current legislated timeline of a June 2026 election, but notes that is “subject to change.”
Recall: Elections Ontario first told me they’re also bracing for the possibility of an early election, which rumour has it could go down next spring. Don’t forget: Sources exclusively told this newsletter that PC candidate nominations won’t get started until the fall, so don’t expect a vote before that months-long process wraps up. What’s for sure: Whenever it happens, the next vote will stick to the current 124-riding map.
First in Observer II — Over in Liberal land: The Grits are picking up the pace when it comes to their candidate nominations.
And it’s about time: As I previously scooped, the Liberals are looking to lock in half their slate by September, in time for their AGM in London — but things have been moving like molasses with only incumbents nominated thus far. After being decimated in the last two rounds, the Grits have the most ground to make up when it comes to vetting candidates — especially if they want to avoid late-in-the-game dropouts a la 2022.
Enter LIZ MENDES and ALISON GOHEL. The former contenders will be back on the Liberal ticket in the next election, running in Mississauga-Lakeshore and Oakville, respectively. They’ll be automatically acclaimed as candidates next week.
More eyes emojis: Mendes running in Mississauga-Lakeshore narrows down the ridings where rookie leader BONNIE CROMBIE may run. Crombie previously told Global she “may very well be” one of those candidates secured by September and that she was eyeing “two or three ridings” on her home turf, which is technically in Lakeshore.
While nothing is set in stone, sources tell me Crombie could be gunning for Mississauga Centre — currently repped by Long-Term Care Minister NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA.
Shuffle up: Throw TODD SMITH’s exit from cabinet on to the pile of snap-vote hints. The veteran MPP for Bay of Quinte and affable minister is headed for the private sector — and he may not be the only one as the PCs gear up for nominations in the fall, when we could see more departures a la PARM GILL ahead of a possible early election next spring.
Zapped: “Sources who were not authorized to publicly discuss the issue have told The Canadian Press that Smith was not happy about the move to education in a cabinet shuffle in June, following three years as energy minister.”
All aboard the gravy train: Ontario’s biggest cabinet just got bigger. JILL DUNLOP is taking up the mantle at Education. NOLAN QUINN, cabinet newbie on the Associate Forestry file, is handling Colleges and Universities. Backbencher KEVIN HOLLAND (Thunder Bay-Atikokan) will move over to Associate Forestry, while up-and-comer GRAHAM McGREGOR (Brampton North) is the new Associate Minister of Auto Theft and Bail Reform, over which he’s expected to continue hammering the feds on. Get to know McGregor in my earlier interview.
So, what’s the over/under on a byelection? Technically, Premier DOUG FORD has six months to call a byelection to fill Smith’s seat in Bay of Quinte. But, and it’s a biggie: Byelections cost a pretty penny and precious resources — and if there’s an early election around the corner next spring, Ford will likely hold out for the general in the hopes of hanging on to the PC stronghold.
HAPPENING TODAY
AMO DAY 1 — The provincial whirlwind continues this week as mayors, councillors, wardens, reeves and civic advocates descend on the capital for the annual Association of Municipalities of Ontario’s conference. Premier DOUG FORD is slated to speak around 10:10 a.m. Livestream. Lieutenant Governor EDITH DUMONT is his opening act. Oppo speeches kick off around 2 p.m., featuring MARIT STILES, BONNIE CROMBIE and MIKE SCHREINER.
A highlight: Don’t miss Tuesday afternoon’s “bear pit” Q-and-A session with the front bench, where local politicians grill ministers on their wildest civic policy fantasies. Full agenda.
What municipalities want: “The province to appoint a minister to tackle homelessness as leaders sound the alarm on the growing housing, mental health and addictions needs of their communities,” via CP. It’s prompted another L-MAC Attack. They also want the province “to finally unveil a law that would tackle the growing issue of harassment on local councils,” via Global. In case you missed it: Big City Mayors also want action on homelessness, opioid addiction and tent encampments.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6:30 p.m.: MARIT STILES is taking the opportunity to raise cash for the NDP at a special fundraiser in the capital. Invite.
CLIPPINGS
— MR. FORD GOES TO WASHINGTON: “The Ontario government has hired an American lobbying firm to target lawmakers before and after the fall U.S. election, part of Premier Doug Ford’s plan to promote provincial interests to the next administration.” The Globe’s got the skinny.
— GREENBELT ALERT! “RCMP detectives investigating the $8.28-billion Greenbelt land swap scandal are interviewing witnesses linked to Premier DOUG FORD’s government.” The Star got the jump.
— MANTHA MESS: “A constituency assistant fired by the Ontario NDP after being sexually harassed by MPP MICHAEL MANTHA was not terminated for just cause, an arbitration decision has found.” The Star has the doozy of a story.
— THE BATTLE FOR FARMLAND IN WILMOT: “‘Surprised’ and ‘confused’: Regional chair responds to Ford government slamming Wilmot Land Assembly,” via CityNews.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
PROMOTIONS — In Deputy Premier and Health Minister SYLVIA JONES’s office, ALEXANDRA ADAMO is now deputy chief of staff, SYED RAZA is now director of policy and HANNAH JENSEN is taking over as D-Comms.
HIGH PLACES — GARY CRAWFORD, former PC byelection candidate for Scarborough and ex-Toronto budget chief has been appointed board chair at the Ontario Cannabis Store.
BEYOND THE BUBBLE — RIKIN KOTAK — former Attorney General staffer who was also part of that mass exodus at the Treasury Board last year — has landed at Supply Ontario, as strategic partnerships lead.
— MANDY MOORE, who up until last month was the Ontario Liberal Party’s executive director, has moved on to the Hill, as strategic adviser to federal Attorney General ARIF VIRANI. Don’t forget, as exclusively reported in this newsletter, SIMON TUNSTALL has replaced Moore at the provincial level.
SPOTTED:
Turfed Tory GOLDIE GHAMARI accuses PC operatives (and her social media followers) KORY TENEYCKE, CODY WELTON and DOUG FORD himself of “stalking” her accounts following her ouster…Ford’s anti-beach-pooping crusade gets the STEPHEN COLBERT treatment…