David Peterson has a reality check for Doug Ford
And the race to define the race
ABOVE THE FOLD
Day 1 of Ontario’s snap winter campaign was a blur. All four main party leaders made splashy campaign debuts at the exact same time, each trying to put their own spin on the ballot-box question. The Chief Electoral Officer gave a rundown on the higher-than-expected election costs — and I’m not just talking about money. Day 2 is shaping up to be just as busy. Before we dig into all that: DAVID PETERSON is dishing on DOUG FORD’s early election gambit.
Queen’s Park circles have been name-checking Peterson for months and comparing Ford’s snap vote to the one the former Liberal premier triggered in 1990. That too was framed as opportunistic, and eventually backfired on the majority-enjoying Peterson, giving way to Ontario’s first and so far only NDP government led by BOB RAE.
Peterson did a rare interview with Newstalk 1010 host DEB HUTTON this week. The whole clip is a must-listen. Here are some choice quotes:
“Yes, I do believe [the early election call was] a factor [in 1990]…it is impossible for me to determine how big of a factor. For some, the early call was seen to be a sign of arrogance. It was a metaphor for arrogance of the government.”
“Don’t forget, we were an extraordinarily productive government, and I had taken some very big risks for the province on trying to keep this country together through Meech Lake and the constitutional discussions. I don’t want to relive that, but I was extremely worried about that…I don’t think I explained that well, and if I did, I’m not sure a lot of people bought it anyway — but that’s why I did it. And obviously, if you measure your life in winning and losing, it was the wrong call. It was my mistake and I paid the price for it.”
“Are people going to buy Doug Ford’s explanation? He says he needs a big majority to handle [DONALD] TRUMP…He doesn’t even know what Trump has on offer…He just said, ‘Let me spend tens of billions of dollars.’”
“They look at Doug and they say, ‘Well, you’ve actually just concocted this. And the reason you want to go is because you don’t want to run against [PIERRE] POILIEVRE. You want to take advantage of [JUSTIN] TRUDEAU’s diminished popularity. It’s the old Underhill curve and the balance in the country between the federal and provincial governments. And so you’re just taking advantage of this.’”
“He has bet the farm on EVs, on electric vehicles, and if they get hit, it’s his bet that he’s going to have to subsidize people…I’m telling you, he’s got a very tall order, particularly when the primary responsibilities of a premier of the province of Ontario are in health care and in education. There’s a general sense those two areas need a great deal of work and tending and attention.”
“They aren’t buying his line of logic.”
“If [the rationale] is not well received, then it’s not well channeled.”
“I was 20 points ahead when I started that campaign, but I remind you, I was 20 points behind when I won in 1985. So I just make that statement to remind you of the volatility, and of how things can change for the better or the worse, depending on your perspective.”
“It is cruel and unusual punishment in Ontario to have an election in the middle of the winter.”
Go deeper: Catch up on my one-on-one with DAN RATH, co-author of Not Without Cause, the must-read post-mortem on Peterson’s early election gamble.
WE HAVE LIFTOFF — A whirlwind start to the campaign as party leaders look to define what this election is all about.
For PC Leader DOUG FORD, it’s Trump’s tariff threat. Ford launched the PC campaign against the backdrop of Ambassador Bridge in border city Windsor, insisting he needs a “strong, stable four-year mandate” to take on Washington.
Reporters poked holes in his rationale and pressed Ford on whether he’s best positioned to deal with Trump, who has so far snubbed Ford’s hopes for a meeting.
But the PCs are sticking to their guns and dropped a new ad featuring the slogan “Protect Ontario.” I scooped that for you a day early. There’s a soft rock jingle too.
Civic crush: They also touted endorsements from Windsor Mayor DREW DILKENS and Barrie Mayor ALEX NUTTALL (the latter was cheekily timed with BONNIE CROMBIE’s launch in Barrie).
NDP Leader MARIT STILES was in Toronto Centre’s Regent Park neighbourhood, flanked by supporters and candidates, as well as a Canadian flag. Indeed, Stiles talked about national unity and promised an income protection program for workers who may be hit by Trump’s looming levies.
She sounded off on the PCs missteps (“We have the power to turn the page on seven years of Doug Ford”), struck a positive tone (“It’s time to choose a better Ontario”) and appealed to Liberal voters (“Bonnie Crombie doesn’t want to get rid of Doug Ford, Bonnie Crombie wants to be Doug Ford”).
The slogan: “On your side.” There’s a new ad to go with it too.
For Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE’s part, this election is unnecessary and self-serving. But we’re in the thick of it anyway, so she’s honing in on health care and public safety, as evinced by the party’s MPP campaign co-chairs ROSE ZACHARIAS (Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte), a doctor and former head of the Ontario Medical Association, and PETER YUEN (Scarborough-Agincourt), former deputy Toronto police chief.
Crombie and Zacharias kicked off their bid in Barrie (for reasons) with a focus on the family doctor shortage and hallway health care. The $175 million (and counting) that it costs to run the election “would have bought everyone here in Barrie a family doctor,” Crombie said. They’re sticking with the “More For You” slogan.
Looks are everything: The CBC’s Mike Crawley’s fiery take on the venue…
“Election campaigns are visual events…and the Liberal party’s launch in front of a nondescript medical office in Barrie was…less than impressive. Literally at one point a car drove up and unloaded behind the Liberal leader…That’s a problem for the Liberals, who are still trying to get back to having official party status at Queen’s Park by telling Ontarians they’re ready for prime time.” New Democrats can hardly contain their glee.
Hat trick: Crombie put her own spin on Ford’s “Canada Is Not For Sale” hat and donned a baseball cap that read “Real Leaders Fix Healthcare.” The hats are getting mixed reviews. Love them or hate them, insiders agree: It can’t be worse than the chicken suit.
Green Leader MIKE SCHREINER hit hard on the themes of housing and health care. He rallied the troops in his home riding of Guelph and pumped up candidates in ridings where the Greens believe they have the best shot, and where they’ll be funnelling their resources. That includes hanging on to Kitchener Centre and poaching Parry Sound-Muskoka.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
PCs…9:30 a.m.: DOUG FORD treks to London for an announcement. He’ll also glad-hand workers at the Labatt Brewery before heading to Vaughan for an event with LiUNA.
11:30 a.m.: PRABMEET SARKARIA (Brampton South) will make an announcement in Ottawa.
Fundraising watch: The PCs are also holding a trio of big-ticket moneymaking events in Orleans, Toronto and Cambridge.
NDP…11 a.m.: MARIT STILES will hop on the NDP’s campaign bus at Queen’s Park then hit the road and head to Kitchener-Conestoga for a 2:30 p.m. presser. At 6 p.m.: She’ll be at the Beerded Dog Brewing Co. in Essex, a riding the NDP lost to the PCs in 2022.
Liberals…10:45 a.m.: BONNIE CROMBIE is on her home turf in battleground Mississauga and will cut the ribbon on her campaign office in Mississauga East-Cooksville. 4:45 p.m.: Crombie and volunteers will spend the evening knocking doors.
Greens…11 a.m.: MIKE SCHREINER is in Wellington-Halton Hills, which is a much more competitive seat because incumbent PC and Speaker TED ARNOTT isn’t seeking re-election. Schreiner sees an in with high-profile candidate BRONWYNNE WILTON, a local councillor. The pair will tour local youth wellness hubs, lunch at Vault Coffee, go canvassing, and host a meet-and-greet at the Silvercreek Socialhaus.
CLIPPINGS
— ESSENSA’S RUNDOWN: Chief Electoral Officer GREG ESSENSA laid out the groundwork for the election. Upshot: There will be only three days of advanced voting instead of the usual 10, thanks to the early timeline. Running the election will cost $189 million, which would have been the same if it was held as scheduled in 2026. There are contingency plans in the works in case there’s a blizzard on E-Day. The elections watchdog has been prepping for the possibility of the vote ever since last May when DOUG FORD refused to rule it out — but they only got official word a few days prior. More from CTV News.