SCOOP: Elections Ontario drops 2022 post-mortem
Also: Insiders dish on Hunter's bid (and who defected from Bailao's camp), McCrimmon's in, Bains bails, Mantha benched, Jama's debate debut, Kerzner's bail push, Ford's beef with Guilbeault and more
ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Observer — 2022 POST-MORTEM — Beef up candidate nomination rules. Penalize contestants for filing campaign receipts late. Black out polling. Make political parties subject to privacy laws. Review the riding boundaries map already.
That’s the upshot from Chief Electoral Officer GREG ESSENSA’s 2022 election debrief report, which hit the Clerk’s table yesterday.
Here’s the highlight recommendations reel:
Wannabe candidates: Essensa wants to alleviate the risk of “fraudulent candidate nomination papers being submitted to us as a result of insufficient rigour of the current requirements.” That would require contestants to submit ID and a deposit in the $100-$500 range, which is the threshold in other provinces.
Also on his wish list: Move up the deadline for nominations and scrap the requirement for 25 signatures.
No receipt? Big problem: “Grant the Chief Electoral Officer the ability to penalize for failing to meet filing deadlines,” Essensa says. That includes parties, riding associations, candidates, leadership contestants and third-party advertisers. Only 87 per cent had filed their receipts by January, a month after the deadline. “A legislative amendment which grants the Chief Electoral Officer the ability to reprimand non-compliant political entities would improve compliance.”
Timing is everything: Extending the current “insufficient” 29-day writ period would help “ensure the delivery of a successful election” and address logistical issues.
Hold the polls: 2022 saw a whopping number of public opinion surveys — an average of 2.5 polls per day (36 total) were released in the two-week run-up to E-Day. That’s too much for Essensa, who notes polls have the potential to influence electors for better or worse. He wants a black-out on publishing polling that states “political party favourability ratings” in the final two weeks of the campaign.
Map it out: Establish a regular review of the riding map. “Ontario is the only province in Canada without a regularly scheduled process for reviewing electoral districts and boundaries.” Having one “to reflect population growth and demographic changes are essential to the democratic process.”
In case you missed it, here’s how the newly proposed federal boundaries would play out in Ontario.
Privacy, please: The Information and Privacy commish should have oversight of political parties. “Parties are building sophisticated databases of voter information, increasing privacy concerns. Canadian privacy commissioners are increasingly calling for political parties to be subject to privacy laws to provide oversight of such practices.”
Location, location, location: Putting polls in long-term care homes would make it easier for the elderly cast a ballot. Election Day should also be held on a day that schools are out, to ease access and keep kids safe.
Go deeper: The real spending of the 2022 election.
MITZIE’S IN — First she was preparing. Now, she’s made it official. And stay tuned for when she resigns her seat at Queen’s Park — which we hear is happening sometime in April, ahead of the nomination deadline on May 12.
MITZIE HUNTER has jumped into the crowded race to replace JOHN TORY as Toronto Mayor, pledging not to use the strong-mayor powers awarded by Premier DOUG FORD.
Word on the street is Hunter’s campaign has poached key operatives who were poised to join ANA BAILÃO’s camp (which features Grit TOM ALLISON and PC NICK KOUVALIS).
The praise: ANDREW BEVAN, then-premier KATHLEEN WYNNE’s chief of staff, has been on Team Hunter since day one as a campaign adviser. Asked what gives her an edge, Bevan pointed to her civic experience at the Toronto Community Housing Corp and CivicAction. Ditto her ministerial gigs for Education and Associate Finance.
In his own words: That gives “her the background to know what’s needed at this critical moment for Toronto. And she has the leadership skills and determination to bring the city together so Toronto works better for all, no matter what part of the city they come from.”
The shade — from some political strategists, including folks from rival campaigns:
Minivan party, minus one: “I’ve had several discussions with Mitzie to stay at Queen’s Park where she could help her constituents that she cares so deeply about. Her resignation will trigger a third byelection that would be very challenging for the Ontario Liberal Party to mount,” said one operative.
“Why isn’t she resigning immediately? A tell!” another messaged.
A few folks fired a shot at Hunter’s fundraising prowess, but others say she’ll have no problem on that front. “Fundraising won’t be her issue — discipline will. She will need to be disciplined for this.”
McCRIMMON, TOO — Back in provincial territory, the Hill Times reports ex-MP KAREN McCRIMMON is eyeing the Liberal nod in Kanata—Carleton to replace ex-PC MERRILEE FULLERTON, who resigned over family health concerns (which we scooped in Monday’s newsletter).
Insiders tell me the PCs should be shaking in their boots. They see McCrimmon as a serious threat in a byelection, thanks to name recognition, data and an army of Hill Grits ready to knock doors.
“The biggest threat is her name recognition. The second biggest threat is that she already has all the [voter] data. The third: Manpower, because the Hill is full of Liberals that would canvass for her,” said one war room veteran.
A triple-header: Premier DOUG FORD has to call that byelection by late September. He’ll also have six months to set a date for votes in Scarborough—Guildwood and Kitchener Centre once Hunter and LAURA MAE LINDO formally resign their respective seats.
MANTHA BENCHED — Meanwhile, don’t expect to see much of MICHAEL MANTHA around the Leg. The longtime MPP for Algoma-Manitoulin is on “personal leave.”
Stripped: This session, Mantha was also relegated to the back bench and stripped of his Natural Resources and Ring of Fire critic roles, while hanging on to the Mines file.
BAINS BAILS — Over in Liberal land, NAVDEEP BAINS is pouring cold water on the notion he might run for provincial leader.
“I am grateful for the overwhelming outpouring of support and encouragement to seek the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party. As I continue to focus on my family, work and community, I look forward to helping rebuild the party as a member, not as a leadership candidate,” the ex-federal minister tweeted.
On to the next.
HAPPENING TODAY
9:30 a.m.: An announcement in Toronto from Housing Minister STEVE CLARK, Public and Business Service Delivery Minister KALEED RASHEED, and Associate Housing Minister NINA TANGRI.
9:30 a.m.: NDPers CHANDRA PASMA and JOEL HARDEN will address the PCs “recent unwarranted financial cuts to the Ottawa-Carleton District School Board” at Briargreen Park in Nepean.
10 a.m.: Long-Term Care Minister PAUL CALANDRA makes an announcement in Brampton. Meanwhile, his PA JOHN JORDAN makes an announcement in Mississauga.
10:30 a.m.: Oppo Leader MARIT STILES is touring Niagara today, with a stop at the local library, where she’ll address the budget’s impact on residents. Also in tow: Local MPP WAYNE GATES.
11 a.m.: NDP KRISTYN WONG-TAM is in the Media Studio to talk about the Ford government’s scrapping of health coverage for the uninsured. Their focus: Refugees and members of the LGBTQ+ community.
11:30 a.m.: Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY continues to ride the coattails of the budget, pumping it up at an Empire Club luncheon. The theme — you guessed it! — “Building a Strong Ontario.” Invite.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6 p.m.: PC STEPHEN CRAWFORD is headlining a $1,000-a-head wine and cheese event on his home turf in Oakville. RSVP.
THE HOUSE IS OUT. MPPs get back at it Monday.
When they return, MPPs will debate a special motion from Solicitor General MICHAEL KERZNER, calling on the feds to move on bail reform, something which the Premiers and Ontario’s in particular have been urging Ottawa to do.
Full text: “This House calls on the federal government to immediately reform the Criminal Code of Canada to address the dangers facing our communities and implement meaningful bail reform to prevent violent and repeat offenders from being released back into our communities.”
SPOTTED:
DOUG FORD’s ratchets up his beef with Federal Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT, calling him a “real piece of work” for saying Ontario has no plan to fight climate change…STAN CHO promising transit fare integration across the GTA this year…Hundreds descend on the South Lawn for the big Health Care 4 All rally…Stiles follows Ford’s cue and heads to the Hammer, to bemoan Greenbelt changes over brewskis.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — HEADED TO THE HILL — LUIS LOPEZ is on the move again, joining the federal Opposition Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE’s team as lead advance. Lopez recently joined Endgame Strategies and before that, worked for Ontario’s Premier and Finance Minister.
All in the family: Lopez isn’t the only Ford Nation alumni working for Poilievre — as we first told you last December, longtime PC staffer SEBASTIAN SKAMSKI has signed on as Poilievre’s director of media relations.
QUESTION PERIOD
Lights, camera, action! SARAH JAMA, the newest MPP at the Park, debuted with her first question, re: homelessness.
THE HIGHLIGHTS: “Why did his budget contain virtually no measures to help make life more affordable in this province?” — “Stop the predatory upselling that is happening across this province?” — Fund the Olde Forge Community Resource Centre — “Provide us with a date on when Bill 74 will be studied before the committee” — “When will the government take real steps to end homelessness in Ontario?” — “Instead of making people’s lives just a little bit easier, this government is actually making life harder. Just why is that?” — Raise home care standards — “Drop the unconstitutional Bill 124” — Close the TTC gap — “Will the minister direct Metrolinx to use World Health Organization standards for acceptable noise levels in the classrooms?”
Expecting the Lobbying Dispatch here? Don’t worry — you’re not missing anything. There were no new, renewed or amended registrations on record over the past 24 hours.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: JONATHAN SCOTT, councillor in the Town of Bradford West Gwillimbury and Liberal organizer.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 180 days until the Premier has to call a byelection in Kanata—Carleton…17 days until Spring Fling…87 days until Toronto’s mayoral byelection.