Hot debates, cold candidates
And good photo-ops
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ABOVE THE FOLD
The leaders are trekking North for the first big debate of the campaign on Friday, but if you can’t wait: a lesser known debate featuring a rare PC candidate is giving us plenty of fireworks in the meantime. Plus: What exactly did DOUG FORD get done in Washington?
Before all that, I promised to update you with word from Elections Ontario re: voter information cards, which won’t be mailed out until next week. The agency insists the cards will arrive in time for advance polls, but campaign organizers are worried that may not happen for everyone since people have until February 17 to make changes to their registration and Canada Post is still dealing with delays. Advance polls kick off February 20.
Says Elections Ontario: “Voter Information Cards (VICs), including details on advance polls, will be mailed out next week. The timing ensures all voting locations are confirmed while giving voters ample time to register and receive their VIC before advance voting begins…Registered voters can also access a scannable digital VIC anytime through the Elections Ontario app.”
FREE-FOR-ALL IN YORK CENTRE — In a rare occurrence, a PC candidate was allowed to speak at a local debate — and he had some juicy things to say.
MICHAEL KERZNER, who was DOUG FORD’s Solicitor General before the writ, went toe-to-toe with SAM NESTICO, the Liberal challenger vying to poach his seat, last night at a virtual debate put on by Jewish advocacy group B’nai Brith Canada.
Highlights:
Kerzner raised a few eyebrows when asked about addressing antisemitism. He said the PCs are not keen to bring in bubble-zone legislation, which would restrict protests near places of worship like synagogues. Nestico is all for that type of legislation — as are many in the Jewish community and some local councillors who have been pushing similar bylaws.
Kerzner suggested such legislation is unenforceable and unconstitutional, and that real change needs to come from Ottawa and the Criminal Code. He pumped up the previously announced $45-million anti-hate fund for Jewish groups as “something that’s tangible.”
“When there was a protest at the synagogue in York Region, [their] bubble bylaw did not work, the York Regional Police would not enforce it, and it would unlikely stand up in the court of law,” Kerzner said.
That rubbed folks in the virtual room the wrong way. I asked some of the 120 or so attendees what they thought about the debate, and Kerzner’s bubble-zone talk in particular:
“This is saying the quiet part out loud,” said one attendee…
“Disappointing” is how another characterized Kerzner’s bubble-zone talk…
Others were more realistic: “Someone needs to break their heart that it’s not constitutional.”
I asked the PCs if Kerzner’s comments reflect the party’s official position. Stay tuned.
Talking-point tactics: PC candidates rarely speak at local candidate debates, and that could be strategic. The less opportunity to speak, the less likely they’ll be forced to defend the governing party’s record, and instead let the talking points speak for them. But it’s a disservice to local voters who want to make informed decisions. (It also prompted that infamous Liberal chicken suit in the last round.)
More jabs: During the debate, Kerzner kept referring to Nestico as a “Trudeau-Crombie Liberal.” Nestico said Kerzner was being “misleading” in order to dodge accountability on the Ford government’s record. At one point the moderator felt the need to remind attendees that Nestico is running under BONNIE CROMBIE’s banner, not JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s.
“Sam is SPICY,” texted one debate attendee who has voted PC in the past.
“Kerzner was too scripted, so Nestico just came off more genuine,” another added the morning after.
Ad watch: Meanwhile, Nestico is pulling no punches on social media and released an ominous attack ad that’s getting lots of traction — but maybe not for the reasons he’d like. “It’s actually a good ad,” conceded one senior operative from a rival campaign. “But I just can’t with the spelling mistakes.” Watch:
York Centre bleeds blue now, but it’s not exactly the safest seat: Kerzner won by roughly 4,000 votes over the Grits in 2022, and before 2018, it was repped by a Liberal, the late MONTE KWINTER, for three decades.
Listen to Kerzner’s remarks for yourself below (with apologies for the reality tv show playing in the background!)
WHERE THE LEADERS ARE AT
PCs…Fresh off his trip to Washington, DOUG FORD is laying low and prepping for the debate with no public events.
NDP…1:30 p.m.: MARIT STILES unveils the NDP’s northern-themed platform at Science North.
Liberals…11 a.m. BONNIE CROMBIE will make an announcement near Barrie. 4 p.m.: Crombie tours a Nipissing nursing facility.
Greens…11 a.m.: MIKE SCHREINER is hanging out down south for now and will rail against Highway 413 alongside advocates and candidates at Spirit Tree Cidery in Dufferin-Caledon.
ALSO HAPPENING TODAY
12 p.m.: Ontario’s Big City Mayors will launch a new advocacy campaign laying out their election priorities.
Candidates incoming…2 p.m.: Wannabe MPPs must be certified with Elections Ontario by today’s deadline if they want their name on the ballot. All 124 PCs and NDP are locked in, and the Grits are nearly there — there were 119 on Elections Ontario’s official list this morning.
7 p.m.: The Ontario Climate Emergency Campaign civic coalition, which features farmers, environmentalist and health care groups, including the Registered Nurses’ Association of Ontario, is hosting an election-themed town hall discussion.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6:30 p.m.: Liberal candidate MAZHAR SHAFIQ (Scarborough Centre) is hosting an intimate $500-a-plate fundraiser alongside MP SALMA ZAHID. Invite…PC KINGA SURMA (Etobicoke Centre) is headlining a $500-meet-and-greet in her neck of the woods. RSVP.
Speaking of moneymaking…The NDP is making a point to note their recent fundraising boost — after the big-spender PCs and Liberals debuted splashy Superbowl ads. The NDP, which put out its own less flashy Superbowl-themed promo on social media, says they’ve raked in $1.6 million since the writ drop.
WINTER WOES — Frigid canvassers may be feeling betrayed by WIARTON WILLIE, the prognosticating groundhog who did not see his shadow and had us dreaming of early spring. How are you dealing with door-knocking during this rare winter election? Are you getting creative with lawn signs? Got a thermos of hot chocolate?
UPDATE — SNOW DAY! Like schools, the Leg is closed thanks to the weather. If you’re still around, you’ll have to go off campus for fish and chips, which was today’s lunch special.
CLIPPINGS
— D.C. LATEST: “What DOUG FORD accomplished on his Washington trip,” via the CBC: “Canada’s premiers got a White House meeting, the Ontario PC leader got a boost for his re-election bid.”
The Premiers are putting emphasis on diplomacy, but they may have gotten a rude awakening after a meeting with DONALD TRUMP’s senior officials, including deputy chief of staff JAMES BLAIR, who told them to take what the American president says at “face value.” Blair seemed to take some of the wind out of B.C. Premier DAVID EBY’s sails and downplayed the conversation. “To be clear, we never agreed that Canada would not be the 51st state. We only agreed to share Premier Eby’s comments.”
— RIDE THE POLLERCOASTER: The Grits are gaining ground in the Star’s poll tracker, which puts them at about 32 per cent versus 42 for the PCs and 17 for the NDP. By the numbers.
— PROGRESSIVE PRIMARY: If some of those polls hold and the PCs lose more ground, those of us with wild imaginations are wondering about the possibility of a minority makeup in the House. Newstalk 1010’s JOHN MOORE might be thinking along those lines too — he asked Liberal captain BONNIE CROMBIE whether she’d link up with MARIT STILES in a minority government situation.
Hard pass, Crombie said, calling the NDP’s platform “extremely costly” and “not a serious plan.”
— GREEN WITH ENVY: The Greens are first out the gate with a costed platform. Therme’s controversial spa and waterpark at Ontario Place? Gone. Highway 413? Nixed. Bradford Bypass? Forget about it. What is on the table: 2 million newly built homes over 10 years, tax cuts for low and middle-income earners, and a “foodbelt” to protect farmland. The Canadian Press delves into the pitches from the party that always punches above its weight.
— IN PARRY SOUND-MUSKOKA: PC contender GRAYDON SMITH is promising two new hospitals in his riding, which just so happened to be one of the closest races in 2022. Smith is facing tough competition in the Greens’ MATT RICHTER, who finished in a close second. The Greens are gunning hard for that riding and funnelling resources there.
— IN MISSISSAUGA: “Food Banks Mississauga has laid off 16 per cent of its paid workforce and cancelled two programs in an effort to sustain operations as demand for emergency food assistance surges.” Mississauga isn’t the only city struggling to feed those in need. For ex-mayor BONNIE CROMBIE, it’s personal — as she told me at Thanksgiving, it’s her favourite charity.
Meanwhile, the Star profiles Crombie’s successor and firecracker politician CAROLYN PARRISH.
SPOTTED:
Ex-PM STEPHEN HARPER at a recent fundraiser for PC PAUL CALANDRA (Markham-Stouffville)…Very good photo-ops featuring DOUG FORD looking Premier-like in Washington…BONNIE CROMBIE being relatable with young folks…MARIT STILES rallying a packed room that braved a snowstorm in Sault Ste. Marie...
MEA CULPA! At one point in yesterday’s edition I mentioned the Northern debate is going down “tomorrow”, meaning today, but it’s actually happening Friday. I know, I know — campaign days are blurring together.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 1 day until the Northern debate…4 days until the provincewide debate…7 days until advance polls…14 days until Election Day.
What’s on your debate night bingo card? Send me your serious and silly suggestions: sabrina@qpobserver.ca, reply to this email, or hit the pink button:
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Credit for photos of leaders: @sflecce, @BonnieCrombie, @OntarioNDP on X.com