How Ford could blow it
Mystery candidates
Presented by: your future Family Day weekend relief
ABOVE THE FOLD
CAUTIONARY TALE — Back in 1990, during the snap election that everyone is comparing our current campaign to, there was a Hail Mary moment that many point to as the beginning of the end for DAVID PETERSON.
The former Liberal premier, who would end up losing to the NDP’s BOB RAE, made hasty promises like reducing the sales tax. It flew in the face of Peterson’s persona as fiscally responsible and was seen by voters as self-serving and an attempt to buy votes.
Fast forward to now, and some insiders are musing over whether we’ve reached that moment for DOUG FORD and the frontrunner PCs.
Tunnel vision: Ford, who rode to power in 2018 railing against the gravy train, re-upped his promise to build a tunnel under Highway 401 — with no cost or timeline.
“It won’t happen overnight,” Ford acknowledged when pressed for details by reporters.
But he’s plowing ahead with his “serious” plan anyway, despite the fact that there’s no feasibility study, timeline or cost estimate, which some experts peg as high as $60 billion.
That’s the angle news outlets are running with — (“Some have warned it’s a money pit” is the lede the Star went with) — and even some Tories concede it’s not the best optics for their fiscally-minded leader.
Salt in the wounds: Fresh polling from the Angus Reid Institute suggests 78 per cent of Ontarians, including three-in-five who support the PCs, believe the election call serves Ford’s interests rather than that of the province, while 68 per cent say it’s “unnecessary.”
“When we’re talking about saving people money and Trump stuff…Ford looks the best on those issues,” said one insider. “I’m not worried, but, yeah, that was hard to watch [Ford defend the tunnel].”
Indeed, it was fodder for Ford’s political rivals, who chalked it up to a vote-grabbing gimmick. Green Leader MIKE SCHREINER said it’s “just insulting to the people of Ontario” that Ford would make such a pie-in-the-sky pledge without much to back it up. (Don’t hold your breath for a costed platform, either.)
The NDP, Liberals and Greens would rather talk about health care (more on that momentarily) — and they’re speaking voters’ language. According to a new poll from Nanos Research, health care is top of mind for the electorate, followed by the economy, then Trump and tariffs.
Horse race: Nanos’s nightly tracker suggests the PCs are at 45 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals, 15 per cent for the NDP and 6 per cent for the Greens.
Teflon Ford: Though a majority agree that the early election was opportunistic, Ford is still top pick for Premier, especially among men, but women are gravitating toward the Grits. Dig in.
Trumped again: Meanwhile, tariffs are back on the menu. U.S President DONALD TRUMP announced a 25 per cent levy on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico today.
Ford, who’s headed stateside tomorrow with his fellow first ministers, is already shifting his narrative to suggest he needs another mandate to deal with Trump’s chaotic administration over the next four years, rather than just the immediate threat of a trade war. I suggested that would happen last week.
“This is the next four years,” Ford said on X. “Shifting goalposts and constant chaos, putting our economy at risk. I’m asking the people for a strong, stable, four-year mandate that outlasts the Trump administration to do whatever it takes, to always be ready to protect Ontario.” He also made a cameo on NewsNation.
Go deeper: Catch up on my interview with DAN RATH, co-author of Not Without Cause, the must-read post-mortem on Peterson’s demise. Teaser: “Nothing stuck to the guy who everybody was prepared to believe had good intentions for the province.”
A message from Therme Canada:
As we all collectively work off the food hangover of Super Bowl Sunday, let us pause for a second and remember next weekend promises to be even crazier–Valentine’s Day AND Family Day weekend?! The audacity.
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While you’re at it, why don’t you do something special for yourself? Our friends at Queen’s Park Observer want to give 3 lucky winners a free annual subscription to their newsletter. Will it be you? Enter now to find out.
WHERE THE LEADERS ARE AT
PCs…11 a.m.: DOUG FORD is up in Oakville. He’ll score another union endorsement — something insiders say helped Ford win a bigger majority in the last round — from the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 793.
NDP…9:30 a.m.: MARIT STILES will be at a Toronto family health team clinic alongside Ontario Nurses Association president ERIN ARISS and Ontario Federation of Labour prez LAURA WALTON. 1:45 p.m.: Stiles sticks to the health care theme and will be at an urgent care centre in Port Colborne.
Liberals…10:30 a.m.: BONNIE CROMBIE is also in Toronto talking about — you guessed it! — health care. 12 p.m.: Crombie will swing by local businesses around the 416.
Greens…1:30 p.m.: MIKE SCHREINER is glad-handing around Cambridge, with stops at a soon-to-be-built women’s shelter and an addictions support centre.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — A big moneymaking day for the PCs…9 a.m.: A $1,000-a-plate brunch in Oakville, where DOUG FORD is expected (Regular readers will know by now: No ministerial lineup means Ford could show)…PAUL CALANDRA and MICHELLE COOPER are shilling for battleground Eglinton-Lawrence over breakfast. Tickets are $1,000 a pop. 7 p.m.: STEPHEN LECCE, NATALIA KUSENDOVA, PATRICE BARNES and CHARMAINE WILLIAMS are hosting a $500-event in Maple…Supporters in North York can rub shoulders with NOLAN QUINN (Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry) for $500 apiece.
CLIPPINGS
— SUNDAY BEST: “The Ontario PCs and Liberals went head-to-head with duelling campaign ads during Super Bowl Sunday.” CBC has more.
— PROMISES, PROMISES: New Democrats laid out their $4-billion health care plan — here’s how it compares to the other party platforms, via the Canadian Press. They’re also pitching a monthly grocery rebate, while the Grits would bring in a special investigator to scrutinize sketchy Ford government deals, such as selling off the Greenbelt and schlepping the Science Centre to the waterfront. CP reports.
— GET TO THE CHOPPER: The PCs continue to hammer on the border and announced two more helicopters to patrol around Niagara and Windsor. Ford also scored another mayoral endorsement. Details.
The room where it happened (or not): Ford skipped out on Friday’s Canada-U.S. summit in Toronto, saying he didn’t “need to be in a room looking at people I’ve talked to a thousand times” and that he’s “sick and tired” of politicians talking.
— YABBA-DABBA-D’OH: Hold his beer, hot mic: DOUG FORD may have put his foot in his mouth again when asked about doubling ODSP, something all parties besides the PCs have promised. Ford said he’s willing to help those who need social assistance, but that “healthy people” shouldn’t be loafing around watching The Flinstones or soap operas. That isn’t sitting well with disability advocates. Clip.
— BATTLEGROUND ST PAUL’S: The race in Toronto-St. Paul’s — a former Liberal bastion that’s been comfortably held by NDPer JILL ANDREW — just got interesting with Grit contender STEPHANIE SMYTH. CP delves in.
— WHAT MAYORS WANT: Ontario Big City Mayors laid out their electoral priorities. That includes tackling homelessness and rising police costs via a new funding deal. MARIT STILES and MIKE SCHREINER were also on hand for the meeting last week.
— PIs REPORT: “Ontario hired private investigators to surveil safe consumption sites. Here’s what they reported.” More from the Star.
SPOTTED AT THERME:
Waterslides!
CANDIDATE TRACKER
The NDP and Liberals have joined the PCs in nominating a full slate of 124 candidates. But, er, you’ll have to wait for “headshots and bios” to find out who the handful of missing Grit contenders are.