Lilley unleashes, Crombie's pitbull bites back
Exclusive staff moves in PO, MPP bump watch and more
ABOVE THE FOLD
DOUG FORD may not want to lead the Opposition — but that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t want to be Prime Minister. That’s the gist of BRIAN LILLEY’s polite pushback to my Ford-for-federal-captain theory, which he served up on his Substack this week (thanks for the shout-out, Brian, our shared drywall at the Leg must be thinner than we thought!)
Meanwhile, in Liberal world, tempers are not cooling. Longtime party operative MARCEL WIEDER — who was also BONNIE CROMBIE’s media wrangler during her leadership bid — rang me up after my latest dispatch on the NATE ERSKINE-SMITH drama. Wieder insisted he wasn’t speaking for Crombie — but then promptly unleashed a series of unfiltered attacks on the backbench MP that sound a lot like what Crombie herself won’t say out loud.
LILLEY UNLEASHES — We may share an office wall at Queen’s Park, but that doesn’t mean we always agree. Sun columnist and fellow Substacker BRIAN LILLEY offered a gracious name-drop and counterpoint to my read on Ford’s federal ambitions, which, to me, seemed to be in high-gear as he wrapped his turn as chair of the Council of the Federation.
Lilley’s take: Ford may want to be PM, but has no appetite for being the Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition — and that alone makes a federal pivot unlikely.
“As much as I respect Nanji’s insights, and I do, I think she’s off mark here and so are others pushing Ford as a federal candidate. That said, I could be proven wrong at any moment by Ford who is unpredictable.” Still: “I don’t see him sitting on the opposition benches, managing an unruly caucus and waiting his turn.”
It’s a solid point: Ford didn’t cut his teeth in party politics but at Toronto City Hall, where things are technically non-partisan. He’s always styled himself as an anti-establishment outsider (even after three terms as PC Premier), and managing a big majority caucus hasn’t exactly been his strong suit. So the idea of wrangling a fractious federal Tory caucus from the Opposition benches? Not exactly his vibe.
But here’s the thing: just because Ford wouldn’t love being Oppo leader doesn’t mean he wouldn’t try for the country’s top job. Ford’s brand thrives on spectacle, momentum and disruption. If he saw a chance to skip the messy middle — say, a coronation-style draft campaign or a post-election vacancy — I wouldn’t count him out. Especially if the people whispering in his ear promise a clear-ish runway.
Lilley also argues that Ford isn’t all that interested in federal issues — fair enough. But some might say he’s more interested in municipal matters than provincial ones (looking at you, bike lanes and the size of city council).
Ford’s political instincts have always been more populist than procedural — and his ambition, well, that’s never really been in doubt.
So, what say you? Cast your vote on the poll below, then hit reply if you’ve got a spicier take. I may or may not include the best responses in the newsletter.
ON THE RECORD AND OFF THE LEASH — MARCEL WIEDER, the media wrangler behind BONNIE CROMBIE’s leadership campaign, called me after reading my recent coverage of the open rift between NATE ERSKINE-SMITH and the Liberal leader, which is boiling over as September’s AGM approaches.
Wieder was clear: He’s not speaking for Crombie, just as a concerned card-carrying Grit. But he’s not a nobody — Wieder’s got real clout in the party, and he pulled no punches.
“I have no skin in the game…I’m just a little ticked off at Nate’s games,” he said.
While he torched Erskine-Smith’s motives and strategy, Wieder didn’t quite acknowledge what many Liberals are quietly grappling with: Erskine-Smith’s approach may be aggravating — but he’s voicing frustrations a lot of people in the party are feeling.
Here are the choice quotes from our call:
On Erskine-Smith’s approach:
— “If Nate Erskine Smith is interested in becoming leader of a political party, there’s one that’s currently vacant — and that is the federal NDP.”
— “He can’t accept the fact that he lost the leadership. He’s replaying the leadership over again, and this is his last gasp at being relevant, because he’s now made himself persona non grata with the [MARK] CARNEY people. He’ll never get a Cabinet post again, and so he’s destined to wither away in the back benches.”
On Crombie’s reaction (or lack thereof — she tends to shrug off questions about Erskine-Smith and stick to her talking points):
— “She wants to be a unifier, not a divider.”
— “She doesn’t want to create a separate Team Nate that will be sniping for the next X number of years. She’s doing a lot of listening and wants a united, cohesive Ontario Liberal Party — that’s her personality. Me, I’m personally a little more combative.”
— “If she had won [her seat in Mississauga], we would not be having this conversation. She ticked off all the boxes — returning the party to party status? Done. Second, raise money — done. Third, raise the number of votes — done. So, she got three out of four things. The only thing she didn’t tick off was winning her seat.”
On what the drama says about the state of the Ontario Liberal Party:
— “If you've been around the party as long as I have, this is a normal outcome. There will always be Liberals who see things differently, who are impatient and who say, ‘OK, we elected Bonnie as leader, she should be Premier today.’ Well, that’s not how it always works. Sometimes you have to build steps to get to where you want to be. And so this is just another step on the road to becoming Premier.”
— “Instant gratification is how I can term it.”
— “It speaks well to a party of the grassroots and of engagement, and building off of that. I expect we will go into the AGM, we’ll have a healthy discussion — maybe too healthy in some respects — and on the Sunday afternoon, we’ll all leave united and have a common mission and know what the path forward is.”
I’ve reached out to Erskine-Smith for his rebuttal. Stay tuned.
Media darling: Crombie, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to be taking anything for granted and has gotten more aggressive in wooing delegates as the AGM draws near. As TVO’s JOHN MICHAEL McGRATH argues, picking up on my JEFF LEHMAN exclusive, the current Liberal leader “should prepare for a leadership challenge — and not only from the usual suspects.”
As such, Crombie has been hitting the airwaves this week, including spots on Newstalk 1010 (she wouldn’t bite when morning host JOHN MOORE repeatedly asked her about Erskine-Smith’s antics) and a one-hour-plus podcast with organizer THERESA LUBOWITZ aimed at the party faithful. Tune in at noon.
HAPPENING TODAY
9 a.m.: Associate Forestry Minister KEVIN HOLLAND makes an announcement in Thunder Bay.
9 a.m.: NDP Leader MARIT STILES will address the Canadian Labour Conference’s summer summit in Hamilton.
12 p.m.: Long-Term Care Minister NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA is up in Brighton.
CLIPPINGS
— SHOOT YOUR SHOT (OR NOT): “‘Staff error’ to blame after the NDP mistakenly sends out a press release saying Hockey Canada players convicted.” It’s every comms staffer’s worst nightmare. Mea culpas abound. Via CityNews.
— POLL WATCH: “As DONALD TRUMP’s trade war grinds on, support for DOUG FORD’s PCs hits new high.” By Abacus’s numbers, via the Star: “The Tories, re-elected Feb. 27 with 43 per cent of the popular vote, sat at 50 per cent support in the poll, ahead of BONNIE CROMBIE’s Liberals at 28 per cent while MARIT STILES’ NDP languished at 13 per cent and MIKE SCHREINER’s Greens were at six per cent.”
— MX’S $823,879-DOLLAR MAN: “New Metrolinx CEO MICHAEL LINDSAY could earn just over $820,000 in the next year between performance bonuses and his salary.” Global News crunches the numbers.
Read the room: NDP MPPs DOLY BEGUM and JENNIFER FRENCH are demanding a full public inquiry after reports that Metrolinx is facing lawsuits totalling $8.2 billion. The Opposition is accusing the agency of chronic delays, ballooning costs, and a lack of transparency — particularly around projects like the Crosstown LRT. They’re calling on Premier DOUG FORD and Transportation PRABMEET SARKARIA to “pull their heads out of the sand” and take accountability.
— TARIFF LATEST: “With the clock ticking on U.S. President DONALD TRUMP's threat to boost tariffs on some Canadian exports to 35 per cent starting Aug. 1, Canada's top trade negotiators are downplaying the likelihood of reaching a deal by that deadline.” CBC reports.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
IN THE PREMIER’S OFFICE — A little birdie tells me TORY PEARSON, who was most recently DOUG FORD’s director of stakeholder relations, is headed for the exit. No word on her replacement yet. Pearson has held senior roles under different Ministers throughout the years, including at Labour, Environment, Housing and Colleges and Universities. She’s one in a slew of high-profile staffers that have peaced out this summer. Go deeper.
— SCOTT PHELAN, former PC candidate for Kanata-Carleton, has joined Ford’s team as executive director of the Ottawa Regional Office and a deputy chief of staff.
IN OPPO WORLD — ASTRID KRUEGER-POWERS is now executive assistant to Official Opposition NDP Leader MARIT STILES.
SPOTTED: BUMP WATCH EDITION
Congrats to Infrastructure Minister KINGA SURMA, who’s expecting her first little one! This government caucus is seriously boosting its bench strength with babies — Red Tape Reduction Minister ANDREA KHANJIN and Long-Term Care Minister NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA have been spotted regularly bringing their kiddos to announcements. It’s a lovely reminder that women can have it all. 🍼
LOBBY LIST
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Kevin Gaudet, BrightPoint Strategy: Association of Law Officers of the Crown
Saad Baig, StrategyCorp: Niagara District Airport
Jessica Hamley, StrategyCorp: Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries
Cory Mulvihill, Cory Mulvihill: Centre for Probe Development and Commercialization
Chad Rogers, Crestview Strategy: Thunder Bay Pulp and Paper Inc.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY +1: PC SHEREF SABAWY…On Sunday: PCs DAWN GALLAGHER MURPHY and WILL BOUMA.
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: Chicken and mushroom pot pie with garden salad.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 49 days until the Liberal AGM in Toronto…56 days until the NDP convention in Niagara Falls…87 days until the House reconvenes…189 days until the PC convention.
Got a tip? Document to leak? Staffer on the move? Birthday or anniversary coming up? I want to hear from you, on or off the record. Reach out to sabrina@qpobserver.ca or just reply to this email.
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Cover image: Screengrab, Lilley’s Youtube