Making sense of the polls with 338Canada
And media-proofing Ford
ABOVE THE FOLD
We’re entering Week 2 of the campaign, and not much has changed since day one. The PCs continue to blow their rivals out of the water in public-opinion polls, while the Liberals and NDP jockey for second place. Will anything knock DOUG FORD off his pedestal? Can MARIT STILES hold on to Official Opposition status? Is BONNIE CROMBIE really gaining steam? And which voters will be the kingmakers come Election Day?
I spoke with PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, the polling pro behind aggregator 338Canada, to help make sense of it all.
The polls have been somewhat all over the place…“Oh, yes [laughs].”
So let’s start there. For the most part, they show the PCs leading handily. Then there’s the Liberals, who, according to some surveys, are making up the gap. Pollsters are getting heated about that online. What’s going on? “There are many things that we do not know. However, we can separate pollsters into two groups: There are two firms using IVR, so automated calls, which is Mainstreet Research and Liaison Strategies, that are showing one set of numbers, and then all the others that are so far using internet panels, opt-in panels, that are seeing something else.
Mainstreet and Liaison both put the PCs at 43 per cent, but when we look at the online polls — that have, for the most part been very good, some of them have the best record in the past decade, such as Leger and Ipsos — they put the PCs at 46 per cent; Ipsos says 50. So if we make an average of those, it’s around 47 or 48 for the onlines, and 43 for the IVRs. It’s not that big of a discrepancy, but it’s notable.”
So is it just a difference in methodology? “Before saying there’s a mode effect, usually it takes months; you look at the long-term trends. But in the early stages of this campaign, yes, there seems to be a discrepancy… [though] it’s not definite.”
Either way, this race has been the incumbent PCs to lose. But then I see numbers like this one from Innovative Research Group that suggest 60 per cent of folks want a change in government. How does that square? “It seems like it’s contradictory. But many Ontarians look at the options right now, and clearly they do not see the Liberals or NDP as a possibility for them. It doesn’t look like the change they’re looking for. And sometimes, you go with the lesser of evils, for lack of a better term…If that number goes up during the campaign, I think this will be more of an indication than a single data point. I’d need to see a trend to conclude there’s something going on here.”
As of this morning, 338Canada pegged the PCs at an even bigger, 99-seat majority. Based on what the polls are telling you so far, is it going to be a total blowout or a modest majority? And are those the only outcomes? “At this point, if the final numbers fall closer to where the IVRs are, it would be a majority for Doug Ford, without a doubt. But it would not be a total blowout. It would be a maybe 75-seat victory. But if the PCs are closer to the 50 per cent mark in Ontario — which I don’t think we have seen in more than a half-century — and your opposition is split, you would see the PCs win almost everywhere. And as you know, 12 seats are needed for official party status. How many parties will have that status? It could only be the PCs if that scenario unfolds.”
What would take Ford down a notch? “I’m the numbers guy. Polls do not predict the future. They describe the very recent past. But the current trend that we see and the uncertainty caused by what’s going on south of the border could have a rallying effect towards the leader.”
Let’s talk about Ford’s rivals. It wasn’t that long ago we were talking about how 2022 was all about the race for second place. Is that happening again for the NDP and Liberals? “It could be one of the most interesting things to follow in this election. If the Ford PCs are really that far ahead, then the race for second becomes interesting.”
Who’s winning runner-up? “It really looks like the NDP has shed some support. They had 24 per cent three years ago, so going from 24 to, let’s say, 17 or 18 would be devastating because all those close races — and there were many close races that the NDP won in 2022 — they could lose them this time around. OLP [the Ontario Liberal Party] doesn’t have that much to lose, they had nine seats at dissolution. So the Liberals could win a dozen seats [for recognized party status], maybe, if they have a good campaign, especially in Toronto and the GTA — but the NDP caucus could be cut in half by the PCs if those numbers don’t change. That 20 per cent mark is very important for the NDP. Below that, they could lose a lot.”
“As for the Liberals, it’s hard for me to believe they’re at 30 per cent, because I don’t see why they would be. But being in the mid-20s, that means they’re holding their vote more than they’re gaining some votes.”
I want to ask you about the Tory base. Can high polling numbers have a chilling effect? Say I’m a PC supporter and I see they’re as high as 50 per cent, and I look outside during this rare winter election and see a blizzard — do I just stay home? “That ‘oh it may be cold outside, they’re going to win anyway, so why would I bother’ — we’ve seen this happen before, but not to Conservative parties. Conservative voters, when they see a potential win, they usually fall in line. So I would be very surprised if that happened.”
What about the so-called progressive primary and vote splitting? “If voters see either the Liberals or the NDP put some daylights between one and the other, could it sway the anti-Conservative vote? The answer is absolutely yes. That was part of the PC strategy in ‘22, to make sure both parties were about equal, and they succeeded.”
The PCs also made gains with organized labour the last time around, especially private-sector unions, which helped them poach seats from the NDP, typically the party of public-sector unions. There’s an interesting cross-section of blue and orange voters in certain regions. Will they be the kingmakers in 2025? “What I wonder really is about what’s going on south of the border. You can make a case that NDP voters would be even more inclined to stick with their party because they’re union-friendly and will protect jobs. But you can also see Doug Ford has spoken to many union jobs, he’s visited those places like London and Windsor. So, those blue-orange voters could really have a huge impact on this election.”
What other regions are you watching closely? “The NDP has had a good presence in the Niagara region. I lived there for a while, so I know the region a bit, and I know the PCs really want to take it, and they could benefit from a vote split there.”
“Mainstreet, they had the whole Hamilton area blue. That strikes you when you see that — you would expect Hamilton to be at least a little orange.”
“And, I don’t think I’m original here, but the western part of the GTA: Will Bonnie Crombie even be able to win her own seat [in Mississauga East-Cooksville]? Because that’s something that [ex-leader STEVEN] DEL DUCA was not able to do, and what kind of message does it send that even your leader doesn’t make it?”
Who’s the underdog in the race? “The Greens are interesting. They’re not growing, but I think their two seats should stick.”
This interview has been lightly edited for clarity and length.
WHERE THE LEADERS ARE AT
PCs…12:15 p.m.: DOUG FORD is up in Waterloo. He’ll also visit workers at the AirBoss facility and tour Linamar.
11 a.m.: PRABMEET SARKARIA is also making an announcement in Milton.
NDP…12 p.m.: MARIT STILES is in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, then heads north to Sault Ste. Marie for the evening leg of her tour.
Liberals…9 a.m.: BONNIE CROMBIE is talking health care with local candidates in Scarborough. 5:30 p.m.: The Grit captain is also trekking north to kick off the campaign in Thunder Bay.
Greens…10:30 a.m.: MIKE SCHREINER starts his day with a canvass in Guelph, then heads to Hamilton to rally with local candidates.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6 p.m.: Tandem $1,000-a-plate fundraisers for the PCs, featuring JILL DUNLOP and PAUL CALANDRA in Newmarket and STEPHEN LECCE and ZEE HAMID in Toronto.
CLIPPINGS
— MEET THE PRESS (OR NOT): Ford continues to grace U.S. media with one-on-one interviews, while snubbing domestic reporters. Tariffs may be on the backburner, but Ford is scheduled to be front and centre on CNN this morning.
When it comes to reporters on home soil — who are asking questions to help the public make informed decisions on E-Day — we’re getting the shaft. Ford will only take the first six questions at press conferences from now on, and journalists are rightly ticked off. Candidates are also being muzzled again, something that prompted the infamous Liberal chicken suit in the last round.
It’s strategic: As the Star noted, Ford’s team says the only candidate they fear is Ford himself. So they may not want to give him more opportunities to shoot himself in the foot, like he did when he went off-the-cuff and said he was 100-per-cent happy DONALD TRUMP won.
Speaking of foot-in-mouth moments…
— DEAR BONNIE: Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE read an email from a Fort Erie resident complaining about the local ER closing. She didn’t seem to know the ER was converted to an urgent care centre in 2009, when the Liberals were in charge. CTV News captured that oopsie.
— PROMISES, PROMISES: “Doug Ford promised to axe tolls on eastern portion of Highway 407. Marit Stiles pledged to build 60,000 supportive housing units and Bonnie Crombie vowed to double Ontario Disability Support Program payments.” The Star on the parties’ latest pledges.
Don’t forget: The Canadian Press has a handy list of campaign promises.
— CROSSING THE RUBICON: Global News is the latest to write about PC campaign manager KORY TENEYCKE’s lobbying firm Rubicon linking up with Capitol Counsel, the Washington-based firm that scored a $1.3-million Ontario government contract, to target key U.S. lawmakers before and after the election.
Allow me to toot my own horn: I scooped that for you earlier this year.
— POLL WATCH: The latest horse-race numbers from Leger: “Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (47%) is still leading by 24 points, ahead of Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberal Party (23%), Marit Stiles’ Ontario NDP (17%), Mike Schreiner’s Green Party (8%), and the New Blue Party of Ontario (2%).” Have at it.
— OH DEER! Kenora’s cutest constituent crashed PC GREG RICKFORD’s canvass.
— IN MEMORIAM: MICHAEL MOSTYN, a prominent advocate for the Jewish community and longtime CEO of B’nai Brith Canada, has passed away at 50 after a battle with cancer. Obituary.
🍽️ LUNCH SPECIAL: It’s Fish-and-Chips Thursday in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 7 days until candidate nominations close…8 days until the Northern debate…21 days until Election Day.