The biggest issue in Bay of Quinte
SCOOP: New Minister in charge at Environment (for now)
ABOVE THE FOLD
Happy byelection day, Bay of Quinte! Our special correspondent Zoie Karagiannis had boots on the ground to find out what matters most to voters in the high-stakes race, which the PCs are calling too-close-for-comfort with the Liberals. Meanwhile, it’s Christmas for fiscal wonks as the government drops the Public Accounts this morning. But first: I’ve got the skinny on a ministerial switcheroo at Environment.
First in Observer — ANDREA KHANJIN is headed off on maternity leave after welcoming baby number two, and TODD McCARTHY is temporarily taking over her duties at Environment, Conservation and Parks.
Everyone in Cabinet has an alternate Minister who can sub-in if they have to leave the gig before a permanent replacement is named. That’s what happened at Red Tape Reduction, where PAUL CALANDRA steered the ship after PARM GILL’s departure for months until MIKE HARRIS JR. was eventually shuffled into the role.
McCarthy will also hang on to his duties as Minister of Public and Business Service Delivery and Procurement.
Welcome to the world: A little birdie tells me Khanjin and baby girl are doing well.
WHAT BAY OF QUINTE VOTERS WANT
By ZOIE KARAGIANNIS
BELLEVILLE — It’s byelection day in Bay of Quinte, with seven candidates vying to replace ex-PC minister TODD SMITH.
As we reported last week, the Grits have been pulling ahead in Bay of Quinte. The latest public-opinion survey from Liaison Strategies suggests the Liberals and PCs are locked in a dead heat, with 36 per cent of decided and leaning voters supporting Liberal candidate SEAN KELLY, versus 35 per cent who back PC contender TYLER ALLSOPP.
Compared to 2022, when the PCs won handily with 49 per cent support, Allsopp may have a tougher time making a similar clean sweep in today’s vote. The NDP, which has been the runner-up in the riding for the last two elections, slips to third place in the poll, with just 18 per cent support for candidate AMANDA ROBERTSON.
Opposition parties are framing this byelection as a chance to send DOUG FORD a message — so pay attention to voter turnout and the margin of victory to see how that plays out tonight.
On Monday evening, I went door-knocking in Belleville to find out how constituents are feeling about the sudden byelection.
Some of the people I talked with didn’t have much to say about the candidates. One man didn’t understand why there were so many parties fighting each other (“Can’t they just all work together?”), while another, when asked about the NDP sign proudly planted on his lawn, claimed he only put it down because his son told him to.
Others had more to say. Queen’s Park Observer agreed to publish only their first names to allow voters to speak candidly.
ELAINE, a woman who has lived in Bay of Quinte for the majority of her life, said she has voted differently according to her needs each election and is not partial to one party. She told me she was leaning toward the Liberals this time around.
“I am extremely unhappy with the Ford government,” she said, especially when it comes to health care in Ontario. “I’m lucky enough to have a family doctor here, but many of my friends can’t say the same.”
This was the most common concern raised by residents: access to primary healthcare.
Like pretty much everywhere else in the province, the riding is dealing with mounting health care problems, including a shortage of family doctors and ballooning wait times for specialist care and in ERs. According to the Ontario Medical Association, as of 2022, 15 per cent of the population in Bay of Quinte couldn’t access a family doctor — “a figure that is likely much higher today.”
DELROY, who works in construction, understands that problem first hand. He moved to Oshawa eight years ago from Jamaica and has lived in Belleville for the last four years. But he still has to visit his family doctor in Oshawa, which is over an hour away because he hasn’t been able to land a doctor closer to home.
SHEILA and SANDY, retired teachers who have lived in Belleville for 23 years, said they would vote for whoever could get them a family doctor. They’ve got one themselves, but their two sons aren’t so lucky, and neither is their friend, who has been waiting six years through Health Connect, a program meant to help Ontarians find a family physician.
As for emergency wait times, the couple says “good luck to you.” When Sandy broke her femur in April, she said she waited well over five hours to be seen by a doctor.
It’s not surprising: According to the government’s own numbers, Quinte Health’s Belleville General Hospital has an average wait time of 3.7 hours, much higher than the provincial average of 2 hours.
Another issue the couple is concerned about is affordable housing.
“Nobody here is going to get rid of their houses because you can’t afford to move. You can’t downsize. Nothing has improved around here since we moved in, but our taxes will go up because they’ve built new subdivisions nearby,” Sheila said. “It’s really expensive all of a sudden. It never used to be.”
“I would say to people, why are you moving here? And if you do move here, keep your family doctor. I don’t care if you’re from Oshawa, Ottawa, wherever — keep your doctor because you will not get one here.”
STEVE, another retiree, told me he thinks the PCs have done “a good job” in Ontario. While he’s also worried about long ER wait times and the increase in cost-of-living, he doesn’t think his vote will change this byelection.
Other PC voters like GARRETT are not happy with the candidate himself. “I usually vote PC, but Tyler [Allsopp] also seems somewhat inexperienced, so I am a little disappointed we couldn’t come up with a stronger candidate,” he said. “I’d vote more for the candidate than the party this time around.”
Longtime NDP supporter PENNY just hopes Allsopp loses. “There’s no way he has experience — the only reason he got picked is because he was willing to run,” she said. (Allsopp was elected as a Belleville councillor in 2021 and is also a small business owner.)
Penny has been on the hunt for a family doctor since 2021, with no luck. That’s why she’s voting for the NDP’s Robertson, describing her as “a listener, smart, and someone who is close to the health care crisis,” since Robertson’s husband is a local family physician. “We need someone who will go to Queen’s Park and speak for the doctors,” she said.
In case you missed it: Here’s what insiders are saying about the byelection.
Zoie Karagiannis is a journalist based in Toronto. She has previously written for CBC Books, On The Record and CanCulture.
HAPPENING TODAY
LET’S GET FISCAL — 10 a.m.: Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY and Treasury Board President CAROLINE MULRONEY release the Public Accounts, which show actual government spending for the last year.
10:30 a.m.: Mental Health Minister MICHAEL TIBOLLO is up in Thunder Bay.
11 a.m.: Women’s Minister CHARMAINE WILLIAMS is in Ottawa.
1 p.m.: Registered Nurses’ Association of Ontario CEO DORIS GRINSPUN will speak at an event dubbed “Action for Pension Wealth and Planet Health” — which will explore how pension investments can help address climate change. Invite.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
11 a.m.: The summer of Estimates reviews continues. This time, Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY kicks off hearings on his Ministry’s spending plan, followed by a bunch of bureaucrats. Lineup.
FUNDRAISING WATCH
9 a.m.: The PCs are putting on a $1,000-a-plate breakfast in King City. There’s no ministerial lineup posted, which regular readers will know by now means DOUG FORD could make a cameo. Invite.
5:30 p.m.: Liberal candidate PAMELA JEFFERY (University-Rosedale) is headlining an up-to-$600 fundraiser at former Senator JERRY GRAFSTEIN’s home. Ice breaker: Get to know Jeffery in this interview. Invite.
6 p.m.: PC Minister TODD McCARTHY is hosting in Toronto. Cost of entry will set you back $975. RSVP.
Bonus: It doesn’t appear to be a money-making event, but the NDP is hosting a potluck and “brainstorming” sesh in Kenora Rainy River to strategize about how to win the next election, whenever it happens to be.
AROUND THE PARK
In a sign that the House is creaking back to life after an extended summer recess, the Legislative Page Program is now accepting applications for the next session. (Full disclosure: This reporter was a Page in eighth grade. No, I will not be sharing any photos from that time.)