It's the final legislative stretch (sooner than you think)
Summertime and the livin's not so easy
ABOVE THE FOLD
Loads of action at Queen’s Park over the past 24 hours. Let’s have at it.
RECESS! — Time to hit the summer barbecue circuit.
Rumour has it the House is set to rise ahead of schedule and I’ve all but confirmed that would happen this Thursday. MPPs will trek back to their ridings for the summer recess a week earlier than planned, multiple sources tell me.
Then: MPPs aren’t slated to return until after the Labour Day long weekend in September. While there are still a bunch of items on the Order Paper, the PCs have been chugging through their agenda and are on track to enshrine some of the biggest-ticket items by the end of the week — and could sit as late as midnight to make it happen.
That includes: Bill 185 — Minister PAUL CALANDRA’s housing and red-tape reduction package that brings in a use-it-or-lose it policy, tweaks the MZO process, and reverses controversial developer fee changes, among other things (Catch up on what it does, or more importantly, doesn’t do) — is set to clear third and final reading after the morning’s Question Period.
Leftovers: There’s a few late-in-the-session pieces of legislation that may stay on the Order Paper if the Ford government decides to break for summer this week instead of next, including Bill 190, the fifth Working For Workers Act; Bill 194, which deals with cybersecurity in schools; Bill 197, which cracks down on car thieves and impaired drivers; and Bill 200, which bans NOSIs.
Politically speaking, the PCs may not be looking forward to Question Period over the next few days as Oppo keeps the heat on Premier DOUG FORD’s chief of staff PATRICK SACKVILLE over the latest Greenbelt revelations.
“Selfishly it’s amazing,” one government staffer texted about the possibility of wrapping up the hectic spring session tomorrow. Amen to that!
But don’t hold out hope that the powers-that-be will lay low so we could enjoy a relatively quiet recess — it’s shaping up to be anything but.
Buckle up for a busy summer: As I previously scooped, shuffle rumours persist, with Ford mulling a front-bench shakeup in time for the PCs big summer kick-off party on June 20. Even wilder: Word on the street is that Ford may also be on the hunt for a new chief of staff. And expect all party leaders to be glad-handing around the province as early election buzz ramps up.
Speaking of which…
RALLYING THE TROOPS
Oppo parties, PC organizers and even Elections Ontario are all gearing up for the possibility that we’ll go to the polls ahead of 2026 — possibly by Spring 2025, as previously reported in this newsletter.
The background: Ford is leaning into the rumours, for reasons regular readers will be well-versed on by now.
But not everyone on his campaign crew is gung-ho. “PC MPPs and their campaign teams are working to build out the framework assuming a June 2025 election will be taking place,” said one campaign manager who is working to re-elect a Tory MPP in a swing GTA riding.
While that’s not a specific order from PC Party HQ, organizers have been told that this will be a summer of canvassing, fundraising and signing up members.
“I am preparing for a June 2025 [election]…not sure I want one but I might get one,” a PC organizer added. “This summer is just critical for us to get things moving…We are up against the [BONNIE] CROMBIE Liberals, she can’t be discounted.”
Oppo parties are also scrambling amid the buzz.
For Crombie’s part: Whenever the next campaign happens, the rookie Grit captain is looking to score $10 million in the hopes of reviving the third-place party. “To be competitive you need a minimum of $10 million and I’m confident by election day we’ll be there,” Crombie told reporters.
NDP Leader MARIT STILES is revving up, too. “We’re already rolling up our sleeves and getting it going,” she said, noting that the party has set up an election planning committee (scooped here) and has started hunting for candidates. “Let’s go. Let’s get rid of this government, the sooner the better.”
Folks at Elections Ontario are also girding themselves. “Part of our mandate is to always be prepared to deliver fair and efficient elections whenever they are called. We are committed to the prudent use of public funds and are cost-effective in the delivery of elections,” said spokesperson PATRICK SMITH.
An aside: There’s also a question of whether Ontario’s electoral map will change. My sources say the Ford government is A-OK with matching the new federal boundaries — while keeping the extra provincial seats up north — but the timeline is more hazy. Elections Ontario had told the government that if it wanted new boundaries in place by 2026, the legislation would ideally come this session, which hasn’t happened. That suggests that if we go to the polls in Spring 2025, it will be under the current map.
Follow the money: Oppo parties have been fundraising off of the possibility of an early election, and for good reason — the bigger the cash arsenal a party has, the more resources they’ll have to mount a competitive campaign. Catch up on that here — and find out how the parties stacked up financially in 2023, and how they’re doing so far in 2024.
EARLY ELECTION POOL — Last Friday I asked y’all to weigh in on the buzz over whether Ontario should go to the polls early. The verdict: 50 per cent of you said No, 38 per cent said Yes, and 12 per cent are Unsure. Over to you, Mr. Premier.
HAPPENING TODAY
8:30 a.m.: The Financial Accountability Office will release a report on the spending plan for the Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services. A presser is slated for 10 a.m.
9 a.m.: Greens MIKE SCHREINER and AISLINN CLANCY are in the Media Studio to reup their call for the Ford government to implement a forest fire action plan amid an intense season.
1 p.m.: PATRICE BARNES, PA to the Labour Minister, is up in Toronto.
1 p.m.: The Ontario Heritage Trust will unveil a marker commemorating the gravesite of late former Tory premier BILL DAVIS at the Peel Art Gallery Museum.
1:30 p.m.: Back in the Media Studio, NDPer JENNIFER FRENCH will talk about her latest pitch to bring in EV charging infrastructure for new homes.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6:30 p.m.: It’s back-to-back moneymaking events for the PCs. Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY is headlining a $1,500-a-plate event in Toronto, while Treasury Board Prez CAROLINE MULRONEY is hosting in support of Don Valley West. Invite.
ON THE ORDER PAPER
First up: MPPs continue third-reading debate on Bill 159, the SolGen’s aptly acronym’ed PUPS Act to crack down on puppy mills.
After the morning’s Question Period, a pair of deferred votes: On third and final reading of Bill 185, the aforementioned housing package. Ditto second reading of the NDP’s backbench Bill 192, to establish patient-to-nurse ratios with an eye to addressing worker burnout.
Later on, MPPs will kick of second-reading debate on Bill 200, which bans NOSIs, among other things.
On the PMB docket: NDPer JENN FRENCH will move a motion calling on the government to amend the Building Code “to restore the requirements for electric vehicle supply equipment that applied to houses served by a garage, carport or driveway.”
Reminder: Motions are non-binding but carry symbolic weight — and this one in particular might sting DOUG FORD.
Another clue we might wrap this week: The afternoon sitting starts earlier, at 1 p.m.
TUESDAY’S RUNDOWN:
Tabled: The Greens private member’s Bill 206, which would establish an EV strategy that explores rebates and incentives, and brings in more charging infrastructure.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
Tumbleweeds. MPPs get back at it tomorrow.
COCKTAIL CHATTER
The Tibetan Women’s Organization is putting on a lunch reception in Room 228. Later on, the group Filipinos In the 6ix takes over. Speaker TED ARNOTT is also headlining in the Dining Room.
OFF CAMPUS — 6 p.m.: Crestview is hosting its annual summer party down the street at Campbell House.
CLIPPINGS
— GRASSY NARROWS CASE: “A First Nation in northwestern Ontario that has faced decades of mercury poisoning is suing the provincial and federal governments, arguing they've failed to protect its treaty rights.” CBC has the details.
— POLICING PSWs: The government is bringing in new oversight regulations for personal support workers and physician assistants, which it says will bolster patient confidence. But experts on the ground are skeptical. Get the latest regulations.
— STRIKE WATCH: “As transit riders in Toronto prepare for a potentially crippling bus, streetcar and subway strike on Friday, the Ford government is staying tight-lipped on any response from Queen’s Park, including whether it’s developing a contingency plan to help thousands of commuters who could be impacted.” Global News digs in.
— SO LONG, COVID DATA: Not everyone is happy about Covid data collection going the way of the dodo, which we scooped yesterday. When it comes to wastewater surveillance in particular: “This has been critical information not only for COVID-19, but other infectious disease threats (Influenza, RSV, MPox, Polio & now H5N1) in Ontario,” said Peterborough’s top doc.
— BANK ON IT: Premier DOUG FORD didn’t seem to get the memo from the Bank of Canada and continues to weigh in on interest rate decisions, the latest of which comes down today. Central bank Governor TIFF MACKLEM had warned Ford and his fellow premiers that their calls to stop future hikes could undermine its independence and public confidence — but Ford is plowing ahead. “Because of sky-high interest rates, too many Ontario families are struggling to make their monthly mortgage payments,” he said. “Tomorrow, the Bank of Canada has another chance to finally give them some overdue relief by cutting interest rates. Inflation is down. It’s well past time for interest rates to come down, too.”
— THE LONG GAME: Meanwhile, the Ford government is laying out its long-term outlook on Ontario’s economy. Let’s get fiscal.
— IN MEMORIAM: “The federal government is considering the creation of a new public foundation to honour BRIAN MULRONEY, the former Progressive Conservative prime minister who died in February, the Star has learned.”
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — TRANSITIONS — DINO ALIC is now D-Comms to Associate Housing Minister ROB FLACK. Alic was previously a senior communications adviser to Trade Minister VIC FEDELI. MICHAEL RAMNANAN is sticking around as Flack’s senior policy adviser.
Over in Energy Minister TODD SMITH’s office, JOSHUA NAHMIAS tacks on appointments adviser to his title of senior policy adviser.
STAFFING UP — MACKENZIE MacDONALD has signed on to Citizenship and Multiculturalism Minister MICHAEL FORD’s camp as a senior comms adviser.
EXIT — ERIKA SOLER is out as director of issues and Leg affairs to Public and Business Service Delivery Minister TODD McCARTHY. As I first told you yesterday, JEROME BENNETT is taking up the mantle.
BEYOND THE BUBBLE — STEPHANIE BELLOTTO, former comms pro to the Premier and PC Party — has landed at the Ontario Sewer and Watermain Construction Association and the Greater Toronto Sewer and Watermain Contractors Association as manager of government relations and communications.
QUESTION PERIOD
Hot heckles: The so-called billion-dollar “boozedoggle” continues to hound the Premier. Meanwhile, Rookie PC ZEE HAMID (Milton) lobbed his first friendly softball, about — you guessed it! — the federal carbon tax. Oh, the irony: Hamid once tried to run for the federal Liberals, and now finds himself bashing them on the PC benches.
THE HIGHLIGHTS: “On Friday, the Premier himself confirmed that his chief of staff regularly uses his personal email for government business. My question is, why?” — “Wildfires are going up. Money to fight wildfires is going down” — “Stop the ongoing poisoning of the people of Grassy Narrows” — Re: the LANDYN FERRIS tragedy, “this could happen again if we don’t address the funding shortfall and the lack of resources for special education” — Help workers impacted by the Terrace Bay mill shutdown — Pass the Liberals’ Bill 195, and cut taxes on small biz already — “How many more people have to die before this government properly addresses our opioid crisis?” — Stop denying access to a rare cancer-fighting drug that could save lives, Pemazyre —Fix long-term care woes up north.
Expecting the Lobbying Dispatch here? Don’t worry, you’re not missing anything. There were no new, renewed or amended registrations on record over the past 24 hours.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NDPer JENN FRENCH (Oshawa)…Newstalk 1010 host JOHN MOORE…Canadian Press reporter PAOLA LORIGGIO…Ex-PC MPP GILA MARTOW.
MEA CULPA! New Democrat JEFF BURCH (Niagara Centre) is also celebrating another trip around the sun today — this newsletter initially reported today was his anniversary with his wife LINDA, but that’s actually tomorrow. Lots to celebrate!
🍽️ ON THE MENU: Italian sausage and rapini pasta is on tap for lunch in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 8 days until the (scheduled!) summer recess…5 days until the Mississauga mayoral election.