Let's get fiscal
Hot takes, hotter leaks
Paid subscribers got this scoop-filled dispatch in their inboxes earlier this morning. Don’t play catch up — subscribe to get Queen’s Park’s most-read newsletter before everyone else.
ABOVE THE FOLD
Happy Budget Day, Ontario! Here’s your play-by-play on what to expect from the Ford government’s financial blueprint, how the Finance Minister is pre-gaming, what insiders are looking for, lockup survival tips from key fiscal players, the latest leaks and more.
Hot takes: Insiders are expecting a “steady as she goes” approach from the PCs mid-mandate budget, which could make for tricky framing for Oppo critics that want to throw DOUG FORD off his message track.
LARYSSA WALER, Ford’s former executive director of communications, now principal at GT and Company: The Ford government “needs to show progress on the big builds that they’re making. So, highways, hospitals, infrastructure — things that they’ve announced in the past, but are the sorts of projects that have big milestones and huge amounts of money, and so they need to show that they continue to make progress on those things.”
“What I don’t expect to see, obviously, are tax increases. I mean, they’ve said that. They’ve done a really deliberate job of pre-positioning an affordability crisis leading into this budget. So you’ve seen the Premier really take aim at the federal government, which this premier tends not to do — at least not lately — but he’s really been hammering on the carbon tax. And you saw the Finance Minister out hammering on the carbon tax in the last few weeks. So they want the public to understand that the carbon tax isn’t them.”
ERIN MORRISON, longtime NDP strategist who previously worked in the Opposition Leader’s Office and now leads her own namesake comms firm: “I expect the Doug Ford Conservatives to use their budget to try to tell the story of infrastructure building — but that narrative is crumbling…MARIT STILES and the New Democrats are building a reputation as a leader and party that calls out Doug Ford’s decisions when they benefit a select few insiders and cost everyone else. I expect that focus to continue for Stiles on budget day.”
“The biggest challenge for the leader of the Official Opposition is trying to disrupt the government’s narrative. Media have already spent hours with the government’s materials and briefing teams before Stiles gets a word with them — it’s a tough job to try to influence the story reporters have already drafted much of by that hour.”
SAM GALEA, Ford’s ex-senior issues manager, now senior consultant at McMillan Vantage: “It’s gonna be a continuation of what they’ve already identified. The main message I’d expect to see is ‘building Ontario’ and ‘keeping costs down.’ It’s really the middle of the mandate for this government at this point, so one of the things that I’d expect to see more than anything is key investments in critical infrastructure, especially with projects with longer lead times. An election is still a couple years away, but ensuring that people can see tangible progress on things like roads and highways, new hospitals, hospital expansions, housing-enabling infrastructure like water systems.”
“I’m not sure if it’ll be in this budget, but I think either in this one or the next one, you’re gonna see a massive chunk of change for building out energy, as Minister [TODD] SMITH has alluded to. We’re finally in an era where there’s increased demand in energy as opposed to decreased demand, and especially if you have this government chasing larger scale EV investments — our electricity grid is going to have to keep up.”
Hotter takes: Two big things from my sources close to the budget process…
On everyone’s favourite stretch goal — auto insurance — don’t expect a revolution, despite that CBC story suggesting it will be a central plank of the budget. My industry sources confirmed more coverage options are on the table, but without specific or immediate timelines, “we’re not gonna see reforms this year” and “it’s more about a gradual progression.”
While motorists will be allowed to pick and choose their coverage, which could help bring down costs, there will be “certain mandatories” so that safety isn’t compromised. “Temper the expectations, now.”
On balancing the books, (“per se,” as the Premier put it): Don’t expect Ontario to wipe out the red ink until just after the next election — “unless interest rates take a sharp tumble between now and then” and cost of living therefore stops being a ballot-box question (fat chance!).
Still, an eye-popping $5-billion contingency fund means anything could happen anytime. According to my economic-minded source high up in the bureaucracy: “The next election is pretty far away, and if $5-billion contingency funds are the new normal, that gives them lots of flexibility to show a balanced budget should they want to. Because a $5-billion deficit on a $210-billion spend is effectively a balanced budget.” That’s something Ontario’s ex-chief economist sussed out for us last year.
Drip, drip: The Premier dropped another budget goody Monday in Mississauga — as expected, the 5.7 cents a litre gas tax cut will be extended until the end of the year. That’ll punch a $500-million hole in the budget over the next six months, per Global.
Play-by-play: By now, Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY has his ducks in a row. The budget has been sent to the printer — (says Waler: “I remember when we sent it to the printers we had to factor in how long does it take for the sheets to dry and how long does it take for the books to be bound.”) — he’s got his new work boots — (“let’s go build Ontario” he told the cobbler) — and he’s done a dress rehearsal for his big speech after hours in the chamber with comms staff offering pointers. After that, he’s lined up 24 media interviews over the next 24 hours.
Lock ‘em up: Over the years, I’ve asked fiscally-minded politicos for their budget day survival tips and tricks. The latest, from a PO staffer, on what not to do (but we’ll all probably do anyway): “Last year, I slept like shit the night before and proceeded to wake up at an ungodly hour and over-caffeinate. And I think that was probably boilerplate for a lot of folks quite frankly. So expect a very jittery Premier’s Office and Finance MO more than anything.”
And in case you missed it: MARK LAWSON, former chief of staff to the finance minister, now VP at Therme, is all about snacks, thanks, and “a dose of humility and gratitude.”… Ex-budget watchdog PETER WELTMAN puts us all to shame with a lunchtime spin class, and plenty of espresso…SCOTT BLODGETT, senior media relations adviser at Finance and Queen’s Park’s resident lockup maestro, says be like Bond (but not government bonds, which we might hear more about in the budget):
“Because you are juggling so many balls in the air on that day, learn to think like JAMES BOND: Always stay cool under pressure and look impeccable, even in the midst of chaos.”
Name that bank! I asked y’all to send me your best guesses for the new name of the Ontario Infrastructure Bank, which Bethlenfalvy says will be getting a new moniker — and y’all delivered. Top entries so far:
From Liberal Finance critic STEPHANIE BOWMAN: “I’m guessing the ‘Ontario Investment Bank.’”
From ex-provincial chief economist, now senior fellow and lecturer at U of T’s Munk School BRIAN LEWIS: “My guess…the ‘Building Ontario Bank.’ BOB’s your uncle!”
And now, we wait. Bethlenfalvy tables the budget and delivers his speech just after 4 p.m., when the embargo lifts and media, staff, stakeholders and Oppo MPPs emerge from lockup. Meantime, your pre-game reads: Former economist-in-chief Lewis has a policy paper out with his pre-budget predictions. And don’t forget about yours truly.
GRITS GEAR UP IN MILTON
The race for Milton is revving up with the Liberals naming their candidate for the soon-to-be-scheduled byelection: GALEN NAIDOO HARRIS. I got the jump yesterday afternoon.
All in the family: Naidoo Harris will sound familiar to Queen’s Park watchers — he’s the son of former cabinet minister INDIRA NAIDOO-HARRIS and has worked in constit offices for area MPs ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN and another Queen’s Park alumni, CHARLES SOUSA. He also sits on the board of the Conservation Halton Foundation.
“Our healthcare and education systems are crumbling while DOUG FORD is busy taking care of his wealthy insider friends. Families in Milton deserve better. I can't wait to get to work,” Naidoo Harris tweeted.
That means seat-less leader BONNIE CROMBIE will try to bring the Grits back from political oblivion from outside the chamber — something that regular readers won’t be surprised to hear, as my sources close to Crombie have long said she wouldn’t be the candidate.
Those same sources now say that while the former Mississauga mayor was seriously considering running in the riding next door (even polling her own prospects), she’s focused on fundraising which is key to mounting a competitive campaign against the big blue Tory fundraising machine in 2026. Crombie herself had also stressed the importance of a local contender.
“While Bonnie considered running herself, she also said all along she would prefer local champions for these by-elections and to focus her attention on touring the province. And that’s what happened. With Galen, alongside Mayor CATHY BURGHARDT-JESSON in LKM, Ontario’s Liberals demonstrate the type of diverse, strong, local leaders we’ll field as candidates,” texted one senior adviser.
PCs pounce: The Tories already dug up Naidoo Harris’s social media posts supporting carbon pricing, as they did with Crombie’s recently minted climate panel. “Voters won’t be fooled. She’s the Queen of the Carbon Tax,” the party charged.
The competition: As first noted in this newsletter, the PCs have already acclaimed ZEE HAMID as their candidate. Hamid is a former local councillor with Liberal ties, and the latter has irked some grassroots Tories. The NDP has yet to pick a candidate.
But the stakes are especially high for the Liberals, who are three seats shy of recognized party status and all the added resources, staff and legislative time that comes with it. In swing seat Milton, the Grits came in close second in 2022, and this would be another opportunity for Crombie to flex her electoral prowess.
Sources with knowledge of polling in both Tory land and Liberal land tell me they expect it will be a “close” race between the two.
Now what? Recall: Sources previously told me they expect the byelection to be called any day now — as soon as tomorrow — in tandem with the byelection for Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, which must be called by April 3 based on when MONTE McNAUGHTON formally resigned. Milton was put into play when PARM GILL hopped over to the federal arena to run under PIERRE POILIEVRE. Ford technically has until mid August to set a date for that vote, but my sources have long said he won’t dilly-dally.
Case in point that the call is nigh: Ford was also spotted door-knocking with Hamid over the weekend.
Over in LKM: All main candidates are locked in. On the ticket: Chatham-Kent councillor STEVE PINSONNEAULT for the PCs, Lucan Biddulph Mayor CATHY BURGHARDT-JESSON for the Grits, community activist KATHRYN SHAILER for the New Democrats and respiratory therapist ANDRAENA TILGNER for the Greens.
HAPPENING TODAY
4:05 p.m.: Finance Minister PETER BETHLENFALVY tables the budget.
Save the date: PC GOLDIE GHAMARI and political operative WARREN KINSELLA are headlining a $99 meet-and-greet with HILLEL FULD, an American Israeli tech pro, in May. Invite.
ON THE ORDER PAPER
First in Observer — First up: Debate on a Standing Order change from House Leader PAUL CALANDRA, that will allow MPPs to speak in the usual English or French while in the chamber, as well as in an Indigenous language spoken in Canada. Don’t forget: Standing Orders are the Legislature’s rulebook and govern procedure and decorum in the House.
Question Period goes down around 10:30 a.m. Most of us will be in lockup waiting for Bethlenfalvy’s big speech just after 4 p.m.
MONDAY’S RUNDOWN:
Tabled: Liberal TED HSU’s private member’s Bill 179, the Fewer Backlogs and Less Partisan Tribunals Act, which would establish an independent Adjudicative Tribunal Justice Council to oversee appointments, operations and severance policies for tribunals, with an eye to ensuring merit-based appointments. (Read between the lines: it’s a criticism of Ford’s insider appointees.)
Killed I: NDP MARIT STILES’s motion calling on the PCs to restore the Auditor General’s oversight powers over government advertising — something the Liberals scrapped and the PCs promised to bring back, but have not. (Recall: Ex-AG BONNIE LYSYK has said the changes reduced her powers to a rubber stamp, meaning governments can go unchecked patting themselves on the back with overtly-partisan taxpayer-funded ads.)
Killed II: Liberal KAREN McCRIMMON’s Bill 168, which would force the Minister of the day to regularly publish stormwater management guidelines.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — Tumbleweeds. MPPs get back at it tomorrow.
CLIPPINGS
— BAD ADS: Premier DOUG FORD weighed in on government advertising as the NDP pitched restoration of the Auditor General’s oversight powers and CBC unveiled the $8-million pricetag for that “It’s Happening Here” blitz.
— SLOWLY BUT SURELY: “The province announced another step forward in the construction process for the Eglinton Crosstown West Extension — a 9.2 kilometre addition to the yet-to-be-opened Eglinton LRT.” Meanwhile, Metrolinx CEO PHIL VERSTER said main construction is complete, testing is 50 per cent complete, but software defects persist, and Alstom and Crosslinx aren’t moving fast enough. That said, there’s no official opening date — but I had the scoop that it’s expected to be up and running by the end of the year.
— CLASSROOM CONUNDRUM: “The staffing challenges in Ontario’s public education system have grown so dire that more than a quarter of schools experience daily teacher shortages and nearly half have daily shortages of education support workers, a new survey has found. In a report released on Monday, the People for Education advocacy group found that 24 per cent of elementary schools and 35 per cent of high schools experience daily teacher shortages.” The Globe reports.
— DEAR JUSTIN: The first ministers have written to the PM laying out a laundry list of infrastructure demands. Meanwhile, Housing Ministers PAUL CALANDRA and SEAN FRASER continue to go at it.
— IN MISSISSAUGA: “The front-runner in the Mississauga mayoral byelection hasn’t changed, but others in the race to replace BONNIE CROMBIE are gaining steam…The poll, conducted this month by Liaison Strategies, shows now former Mississauga councillor CAROLYN PARRISH continuing to hold the lead among mayoral hopefuls, but her nearest competitors, DIPIKA DAMERLA and ALVIN TEDJO, appear to be bridging the gap with around 11 weeks to go in the byelection campaign.”
In the Ward 5 race, familiar faces: MANISH SAWHNEY, who handles operations and public appointments for Seniors Minister RAYMOND CHO, is running to replace Parrish on council. Ditto NATALIE HART, erstwhile contender for Ontario Liberal party president.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
You read it here first! Paid subscribers got these exclusive moves earlier this week…
First in Observer — NEW CHIEF — Meet STEPHEN LECCE’s new chief of staff, same as the old chief of staff: MATT HIRAISHI is making a comeback in the Education Minister’s office as interim chief.
As this newsletter first told you last week, Lecce’s chief BLAIR HAINS is taking a leave to run ZEE HAMID’s byelection campaign in Milton.
Enter Hiraishi, whose first day is today — but it’s hardly his first rodeo. Hiraishi was Lecce’s right-hand staffer between 2021 and 2022, and before that, worked in Premier DOUG FORD’s office.
STAFFING UP — Energy Minister TODD SMITH has a new director of issues management and press secretary: EDYTA McKAY. McKay is taking up the mantle from Smith’s longtime staffer MICHAEL DODSWORTH, who has left the bubble for Enterprise Canada, where he’s now a senior consultant.
AVA MORRIS has signed on to Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA’s team as comms adviser. FRASER SNOWDEN is comms assistant.
PROMOTION — Over in Liberal land, CARTER BROWNLEE has been promoted to Director of Communications. As reporters know first hand, Brownlee always punches above his weight as the Grits don’t have the extra staff and resources that come with recognized party status — and so, Carter: I am happy to take any stories off your plate :)
QUESTION PERIOD
THE HIGHLIGHTS: The NDP has hopped on the fourplex bandwagon, wondering: “Why is the Premier blocking people who can’t afford a single-family detached home from the communities they want to live in and work in?” — “Does the Premier still agree that we need to end government funding of partisan advertising?” — “Apologize to transit users, apologize to the taxpayers of Ontario for this terrible ad by Metrolinx” — “Is she the Minister of Health or the minister of self-promotion?” — “Will he take responsibility for the ballooning debt under his government and uphold his law of the land by providing a debt management strategy in tomorrow’s budget?” — “Can this government reverse course and allow fourplexes, as-of-right, in their upcoming housing bill?” — “He can either choose to be Premier NIMBY, or he can choose to say yes to removing the barriers to housing. Which one will he choose today?” — “Why does the Minister of Education think it’s okay to spend on partisan ads but not invest in our kids?”
REGULATORY ROUNDUP
On Tuesdays, we sum up the government’s latest proposals on the regulatory registry — where the nitty-gritty of policymaking is hammered out.
WEED SALES — The proposal: “To enable the transfer of retail store authorizations and the sale of cannabis inventory between cannabis retail stores in certain circumstances. In addition, the amendments would make changes to tax compliance and store layout rules and make technical changes to the regulation.” Deadline for public feedback: May 9.
PARKS AND REC — Proposal: “To expand the boundary of Bigwind Lake Provincial Park, located approximately 20 kilometres east of Bracebridge. Expanding this park would provide long-term protection and enhanced opportunities for recreational activities, such as hiking and backcountry camping.” Deadline: May 4.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: (BELATEDLY) JOHN JORDAN (Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston).
🍽️ ON THE MENU: In need of some budget day sustenance? Beef lasagna with vegetables and garlic bread is on special in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 5 days until the Sunshine List is due out…6 days until the next constit break…8 days until the Premier has to call a byelection for Lambton-Kent-Middlesex...141 days until the call for Milton…76 days until the Mississauga mayoral election.