Q3 cash: PCs sitting pretty, but NDP closes in
Another snap-vote sign
ABOVE THE FOLD
FUNDRAISING WATCH — The Tories still boast the biggest war chest, but New Democrats are hot on their tails.
By the numbers: According to Elections Ontario’s real-time disclosures, the PCs pulled in $1,564,601 in the third quarter of the year, with 2,040 donors giving an average contribution of $767.
Building up the cash arsenal: As regular readers will know by now, the PCs have been hosting big-ticket fundraisers almost daily and blasting email appeals about everything from BONNIE CROMBIE’s tax musings to what they call “increasing evidence of Liberal and NDP election preparation.”
While the Tories tend to flatten their rivals financially, their Q3 haul is peanuts compared to the more than $4.5 million they pulled in in Q1 of last year. That was thanks to Premier DOUG FORD’s annual leader’s dinner, which, as first scooped in this newsletter, saw roughly 4,000 folks cough up $1,500 apiece to rub shoulders with the front bench. It reportedly brought in $6 million for party coffers and is considered the biggest political fundraiser in Canadian history.
But the leader’s dinner was cancelled this year in the wake of the Greenbelt scandal. (Crombie is hosting her own dinner in December.)
New Democrats are steadily making up the gap. The Official Opposition is boasting about smashing another fundraising record and pocketing $1,214,589 from 26,108 donors in July, August and September.
That’s the most money the party has ever earned in a Q3, besides election years. It brings the amount MARIT STILES has raised since becoming leader to an impressive $7 million.
“This really shows the strength of our movement,” provincial director KEVIN BEAULIEU said in a statement.
Caveat: That’s much more than what’s publicly posted. Because Elections Ontario doesn’t readily disclose donations under $200, the parties’ internal haul may be bigger — especially for the NDP, which pumps itself up as the party of smaller donors. As such, the NDP’s publicly available donations are much lower, clocking in at $490,167.
Still, that’s more than the Liberals made in Q3.
Per Elections Ontario, the Grits raked in $436,856 over the past three months, with 2,860 donors forking out an average contribution of $152.
But, and it’s a biggie: The party’s internal tally is likely higher. The Grits have yet to share their third-quarter standings, but they claimed to raise $954,000 in Q2, and at the time said rookie Leader BONNIE CROMBIE had secured $3 million for its coffers since taking the reins.
The Greens pulled in $128,868 from 504 donors giving an average of $256.
Why it matters: Mounting a competitive campaign can cost a pretty penny, and the more dough in the party’s bank, the more resources they’ll have to advertise, get out the vote, tour all 124 ridings and buy pizza for door-knockers.
And with rumours of an early election mounting, the stakes have never been higher. Parties are also feeling extra pressure to raise more money this year as the taxpayer-funded per-vote subsidy is being phased out, and will be offset by higher individual donation limits.
We called it! — CANDIDATE TRACKER — JILL PROMOLI is the latest Liberal to enter the fray and will be named the candidate for Mississauga-Streetsville. We suggested as much earlier this week.
It’s not her first rodeo: Promoli — who became a prominent pro-vax advocate after losing her two-year-old son to the flu — ran in 2022 and came in 10 points, roughly 4,000 votes, behind PC victor and now-junior Minister NINA TANGRI.
Crombie closes in: Promoli knocks another Mississauga riding out of contention for BONNIE CROMBIE, the Liberals’ seat-less leader who has yet to declare where she’ll run. Sources first told me Crombie is eyeing Mississauga Centre, which is held by Long-Term Care Minister NATALIA KUSENDOVA. But there’s also Mississauga-Cooksville and Mississauga-Malton up for grabs. The Grits have already nominated candidates for the other three Mississauga ridings. Who’s who.
Dithering by design: Crombie might be keeping us on tenterhooks on purpose. In doing so, she’s leaving her rivals, and the PCs in particular, guessing about where she’ll run — and that might hinder their local ground game against her, which is already going full throttle, especially re: taxes.
First in Observer — WORKING THE POLLS — Elections Ontario continues to recruit poll workers for the next vote.
Cue eyes emoji: The provincial electoral agency already fuelled early election rumours when they posted job openings for returning officers (scooped here), and the latest hiring spree is sparking a fresh wave of speculation that we could be headed to the polls next spring.
While the job posting for election clerks notes the next vote is scheduled for June 2026, those are “expected timeframes which are subject to change.” An orientation week is already scheduled for next month, with training slated for February 2025. Workers get $37 an hour and must apply by next week.
They’re not the only one prepping for a (possibly early) campaign.
HAPPENING TODAY
DOUG FORD’S WEDNESDAY — 10 a.m.: The Premier is in East York for an announcement alongside Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA, Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW, and PETER FRAGISKATOS, parliamentary secretary to the federal Housing Minister.
9:30 a.m.: Tourism, Culture and Gaming Minister STAN CHO is up in Chippewas of Rama First Nation.
Save the date: Energy and Electrification Minister STEPHEN LECCE addresses the Empire Club on October 24. The theme: “We’ve Got the Power: Ontario’s Generational Opportunity.” RSVP.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
1 p.m.: The Summer of Estimates continues. GRAHAM McGREGOR — who’s subbing in as Citizenship and Multiculturalism Minister while MICHAEL FORD is on leave for health reasons — kicks off the review on that Ministry’s spending. Bureaucrats will follow. Full lineup.
CLIPPINGS
— AD WATCH: MARIT STILES and BONNIE CROMBIE debut new social media spots.
— PLOW ROW: “Several Ontario farmers raised concerns on Tuesday about dwindling farmland across the province as politicians of all stripes gather at an annual rural and agricultural expo.” The Canadian Press on the latest at the Plowing Match.
— TUNNEL VISION: Plenty of ink is being spilled on DOUG FORD’s pitch for a tunnel under the 401. Choice quotes from Andrew Clark’s op-ed in the Globe:
“It may just be the worst idea in the history of the world. When I first heard of it last week, I thought I was having a flashback to November, 1983, when, at age 17, I accidentally smoked PCP.”