ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Observer I — CAMPAIGN SCHOOL — Another clue the PCs are definitely maybe gearing up for a snap vote next spring: They’ve got more campaign training slated for the fall.
What’s happening: PC organizers will trek to the capital for a “free campaign management training session” on November 16, “to learn the local campaign fundamentals, campaign plan and budget, key takeaways and much more.”
Throw it on the pile: That’s in addition to their Toronto training day scheduled for October (scooped here) — and has fanned rumours of an early election next spring, rather than sometime this year, which Premier DOUG FORD has also poured cold water on. (But “stay tuned” when it comes to a possible 2025 vote.)
Location, location, location: It’s not lost on some Tory insiders that the training sesh is going down in Ottawa — a region where the PCs have lost major ground. “Ottawa is much more competitive [without certain incumbents] so they need a solid ground game to turn it around,” said one party insider.
First in Observer II — CANDIDATE TRACKER — Meanwhile, more Liberals are lining up for the next election, narrowing down the ridings where seat-less leader BONNIE CROMBIE could run.
In the vote-rich 905: QASIR DAR will fly the Grit banner in Mississauga-Erin Mills, currently held by PC SHEREF SABAWY (who’s also a former Liberal and one of the rumoured MPPs who may not be running again). Dar will be formally acclaimed on October 18.
Dar’s candidacy will likely appease some Liberal insiders who were ticked off at the fact that the first crop of non-incumbent candidates were white.
But those who are happy that Team Crombie has been distancing themselves from JUSTIN TRUDEAU might be disappointed to know that Dar is a federal staffer, most recently working for Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, and chairs the federal party’s Ontario wing.
Even juicier: Dar’s candidacy takes Erin Mills out of the running for Crombie, who has yet to decide where in Mississauga she’ll run. As I first told you back in August, rumour has it Crombie is gunning for Mississauga Centre, repped by Long-Term Care Minister NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA.
That tracks: LIZ MENDES is running in Mississauga-Lakeshore, and word on the street is ex-candidate JILL PROMOLI will be back in Mississauga-Streetsville, which leaves only Mississauga-Cooksville, Mississauga-Malton and Mississauga Centre up for grabs.
DOUG FORD and the PCs secured all six Mississauga seats in the last election, but with a popular former mayor like Crombie at the Liberal helm, some Tories are sweating the competition in a region that can make or break governments at Queen’s Park.
Don’t forget: You can find a running list of wannabe MPPs in our CANDIDATE TRACKER.
DEATH (AT QUEEN’S PARK ANYWAY) — And BHUTILA KARPOCHE makes three.
Hill climber: The two-term NDP MPP for Parkdale-High Park is eyeing the Hill and seeking the federal nod to run in the newly named Taiaiako’n-Parkdale-High Park.
“People are looking for change — for hope…We’ve delivered real results for our community. With your support we can do even more,” Karpoche said. Full statement.
Back at Queen’s Park, the mood is much darker. Karpoche’s exit is a major blow for MARIT STILES, who is now forced to hunt for a strong replacement candidate in the hopes of hanging on to the seat.
Karpoche’s not the only one: MONIQUE TAYLOR (Hamilton Mountain) and JOEL HARDEN (Ottawa Centre) are also seeking greener pastures in the capital. Stiles also lost another pair of incumbents in long-held seats when she booted SARAH JAMA (Hamilton Centre) and MICHAEL MANTHA (Algoma-Manitoulin), who are running as Independents.
Deja vu: In 2022, New Democrats lost a bunch of their strongholds to the PCs, including around Windsor, the 905 and up North, after their incumbents — who tend to get a leg-up on the ballot — dropped out. Tories, too: Premier DOUG FORD has also asked his caucus to strap in or ship out by Christmas as the PCs ramp up nominations this fall (scooped here).
THE TALK OF TORY TOWN — While you were weekending, the PCs pounced on a podcast clip of Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE musing about a retail sales tax — which they remixed so that she repeats “Well, yeah, go with the one per cent, or the one cent,” along with a “cha-ching!” sound.
It’s playing into their framing of Crombie as a tax-and-spend out-of-touch elitist. But Crombie is about to hit back with a flashy promo of her own. The clip.
HAPPENING TODAY
ORANGE SHIRT DAY — Bureaucrats are off for Truth and Reconciliation Day, which is now a paid stat holiday for the public service after a battle at arbitration. Legislative Assembly staff are also off — so pack a lunch, the cafeteria is closed.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT — Tumbleweeds. MPPs get back at it Wednesday.
CLIPPINGS
— BAD-BEHAVING COUNCILLORS: “A councillor in a southern Ontario city [Pickering] has been issued a 90-day pay suspension — the most severe penalty possible under current rules — after the municipality’s integrity commissioner found she has been demonstrating a continued pattern of ‘unacceptable behaviour’ that risks hurting marginalized members of society.”
More from the Canadian Press: It’s “a situation that the mayor has said underscores the need for changes to the province’s Municipal Act to allow stricter sanctions, up to the removal of a councillor from office.”
Recall: The PCs have been working on a long-delayed bill to crack down on misbehaving councillors, and Municipal Affairs Minister PAUL CALANDRA has said he wants to consult more, including with Integrity Commish J. DAVID WAKE, before tabling legislation.